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Consumers Flee High Street After Rise In Vat

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/08/consumers-flee-high-street-rise-vat

Consumers fled the high street in droves last month, according to industry figures released today. They showed that a slump in sales following the government's VAT hike became entrenched during February.

Across the high street spending dropped 0.4% in February compared with the same month last year in a marked reversal of the 2.3% bounce seen in January after the pre-Christmas snow chaos, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said.

Big ticket items saw declines, with furniture heading the list of costly goods shunned by shoppers, it said. Clothing and footwear retailers also suffered a fall in what the BRC said was a more accurate picture of the struggle ahead for the industry.

The deteriorating picture for retailers is expected to put further pressure on the chancellor to include measures to boost the economy in his budget later this month.

The consumer driven recovery is in full swing.

If only someone could get the MEW escalator working again...

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Have things suddenly got tight?

People are still on their cars.

Went out yesterday and traffic was appalling.Haven't seen the roads so busy for a long time.

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I don't know, but a drop of ZERO point 4% seems so small that it could fall within a reasonable margin for error and be ignored as too small to measure.

Its like these 0.2% drops in house prices--given the large sums involved and the highly questionable methods and statistics it seems that anything less than 2% is basically meaningless.

Edited by Realistbear

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I don't know, but a drop of ZERO point 4% seems so small that it could fall within a reasonable margin for error and be ignorant as too small to measure.

Its like these 0.2% drops in house prices--given the large sums involved and the highly questionable methods and statistics it seems that anything less than 2% is basically meaningless.

The shops know how much stuff is rising in price, hence the size of the real drop in demand and volumes.

If you haven't got the money in the bank account at the end of the month and the people aren't going crazy borrowing the end result is reduced sales.

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The shops know how much stuff is rising in price, hence the size of the real drop in demand and volumes.

If you haven't got the money in the bank account at the end of the month and the people aren't going crazy borrowing the end result is reduced sales.

And when the merchandise doesn't move the prices come down. And if the merchandise still doesn't move the jobs go and when the jobs go there is even less money to buy the merchandise that isn't selling.

The deflationary vortex is triggered.

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I have it on good authority from insiders I know at BHS and Beatties that they are both losing money hand over fist. The insider at BHS said they haven't made a profit since 2002! If they couldn't make money in the boom, how can they hope to turn things around and make up lost ground now? I was also told that they are now failing to make payments to suppliers!

Add to that the continued downward path that HMV is on, something they will never recover from now iTunes, Amazon and Piracy rule. Not sure if Debehams is making a loss, but I know they have £1Bn in loans to pay back and every time I go in my local one their is never a queue at the till and the staff are standing round chatting. Oh yeah, GAME is in trouble too, when I go in to browse the latest titles (before ordering 2nd hand on ebay) there is never anyone in there.

The high street will look very different in coming years. And unless banks are forced to take losses on commercial property, thereby lowering the price and therefore rents to affordable levels that reflect lower volumes of trade, then the typical new high street is just going to be one big empty rotting husk, just like the economy.

Edited by General Congreve

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I have it on good authority from insiders I know at BHS and Beatties that they are both losing money hand over fist. The insider at BHS said they haven't made a profit since 2002! If they couldn't make money in the boom, how can they hope to turn things around and make up lost ground now? I was also told that they are now failing to make payments to suppliers!

Add to that the continued downward path that HMV is on, something they will never recover from now iTunes, Amazon and Piracy rule. Not sure if Debehams is making a loss, but I know they have £1Bn in loans to pay back and every time I go in my local one their is never a queue at the till and the staff are standing round chatting. Oh yeah, GAME is in trouble too, when I go in to browse the latest titles (before ordering 2nd hand on ebay) there is never anyone in there.

The high street will look very different in coming years. And unless banks are forced to take losses on commercial property, thereby lowering the price and therefore rents to affordable levels that reflect lower volumes of trade, then the typical new high street is just going to be one big empty rotting husk, just like the economy.

Why do you think Philip Green merged BHS into the better performing Arcadia (there are synergies of course) - it's as your insiders correctly report BHS is losing money like there's no tomorow but it can now be masked. They own few freeholds so the business is practically worthless and I'll be interested to see how Topshop is performing now the retail recession is finally here. To think that Allan Leighton got a consortium together in 2004 that offered Green £400m for BHS - lucky escape methinks.

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And when the merchandise doesn't move the prices come down.

Or alternatively, the people who make the stuff sell it into another market, reduce production volumes or even just plain stop making it if there's no way to turn a profit. The merchandise becomes unavailable or for higher value stuff available in small quantities at a high price for those willing and able to pay.

And if the merchandise still doesn't move the jobs go and when the jobs go there is even less money to buy the merchandise that isn't selling.

The deflationary vortex is triggered.

Deflationists always seem to forget that there are two sides of the inflation equation. Money supply on one side, the stock of available goods and services on the other. Money supply has barely shrunk over the last few years whereas goods and services haven't exactly shot up in availability, have they?

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Went out yesterday and traffic was appalling.Haven't seen the roads so busy for a long time.

Stuck in traffic?

You are traffic!

Saw that on a billboard recently, while stuck in traffic.

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Stuck in traffic?

You are traffic!

Saw that on a billboard recently, while stuck in traffic.

Most of the problems in the world could be avoided if people stayed at home.

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I have it on good authority from insiders I know at BHS and Beatties that they are both losing money hand over fist. The insider at BHS said they haven't made a profit since 2002! If they couldn't make money in the boom, how can they hope to turn things around and make up lost ground now? I was also told that they are now failing to make payments to suppliers!

Add to that the continued downward path that HMV is on, something they will never recover from now iTunes, Amazon and Piracy rule. Not sure if Debehams is making a loss, but I know they have £1Bn in loans to pay back and every time I go in my local one their is never a queue at the till and the staff are standing round chatting. Oh yeah, GAME is in trouble too, when I go in to browse the latest titles (before ordering 2nd hand on ebay) there is never anyone in there.

The high street will look very different in coming years. And unless banks are forced to take losses on commercial property, thereby lowering the price and therefore rents to affordable levels that reflect lower volumes of trade, then the typical new high street is just going to be one big empty rotting husk, just like the economy.

im afraid your freind who told you BHS were failing to pay suppliers is telling porkies, also they made a profit in 7,6,5 and 4, a loss in 8 and 3 (dont have access to 09 accounts), anyway im sure it sounded good, besides you probably shouldnt speculate on companies making payments to suppliers on tinternet, its quite an important issue for most companies ability to trade

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Or alternatively, the people who make the stuff sell it into another market, reduce production volumes or even just plain stop making it if there's no way to turn a profit. The merchandise becomes unavailable or for higher value stuff available in small quantities at a high price for those willing and able to pay.

Deflationists always seem to forget that there are two sides of the inflation equation. Money supply on one side, the stock of available goods and services on the other. Money supply has barely shrunk over the last few years whereas goods and services haven't exactly shot up in availability, have they?

The process of creative destruction hasn't taken place - until and unless that occurs you can forget about inflation. Who in this globalised world has pricing power? Hardly anyone and especially not the 'high street'. So money supply is irrelevent - especially if it's all being shovelled into Bonds, which it is now. Welcome to the low yield reality.

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Metro tried to spin that this morning as "because of the snow" but, but, but..., I guess when houses are in freefall come june they'll be blaming the now in december then as well.

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Have things suddenly got tight?

People are still on their cars.

Went out yesterday and traffic was appalling.Haven't seen the roads so busy for a long time.

Dunno - I've seen a shitload more cyclists

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Stuck in traffic?

You are traffic!

Saw that on a billboard recently, while stuck in traffic.

I saw that recently while in traffic.

It seemed an awful waste of money to state the obvious and for some marketing type to have their wordplay being shown on the street. It didn't seem to add to the sum of peoples' knowledge one jot.

Edited by billybong

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im afraid your freind who told you BHS were failing to pay suppliers is telling porkies, also they made a profit in 7,6,5 and 4, a loss in 8 and 3 (dont have access to 09 accounts), anyway im sure it sounded good, besides you probably shouldnt speculate on companies making payments to suppliers on tinternet, its quite an important issue for most companies ability to trade

Sources?

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And when the merchandise doesn't move the prices come down. And if the merchandise still doesn't move the jobs go and when the jobs go there is even less money to buy the merchandise that isn't selling.

The deflationary vortex is triggered.

Riiight..... you forget one important caveat to this..... if the people refuse to spend or cannot spend the government will spend on your behalf..... They will fund this via the magic printing press.

Like the much vaunted public expenditure cuts = an increase in spending.

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I don't know, but a drop of ZERO point 4% seems so small that it could fall within a reasonable margin for error and be ignored as too small to measure.

Its like these 0.2% drops in house prices--given the large sums involved and the highly questionable methods and statistics it seems that anything less than 2% is basically meaningless.

Are you being serious? This is a 0.4% drop in nominal terms, which means it is a real drop of around 5%.

The drop is all the more startling given that the rise in VAT to 20 per cent and price inflation should have brought an automatic rise in the headline number.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1364022/High-Street-sales-fall-Brits-tighten-belts.html

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And when the merchandise doesn't move the prices come down. And if the merchandise still doesn't move the jobs go and when the jobs go there is even less money to buy the merchandise that isn't selling.

The deflationary vortex is triggered.

And if the cost of raw materials and shipping keeps going up will prices still come down?

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I don't know, but a drop of ZERO point 4% seems so small that it could fall within a reasonable margin for error and be ignored as too small to measure.

You should remind yourself of that the next time gold falls a couple of dollars and you call the market top.

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Sources?

Who cares about sources, this is an internet forum, where an unsubstantiated anecdote is used to demolish another unsubstantiated anecdote!

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Have things suddenly got tight?

People are still on their cars.

Went out yesterday and traffic was appalling.Haven't seen the roads so busy for a long time.

I noticed it was particularly busy yesteday evening too. I wondered if it was Christians going out for a final blow-out before lent? I guess most people eat pancakes on shrove tuesday, so the last change for a curry / chinese buffet blow-out would be the monday evening...

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Who cares about sources, this is an internet forum, where an unsubstantiated anecdote is used to demolish another unsubstantiated anecdote!

BHS is a ltd company so anyone who was bored enough could substantiate they have been making profits via companies house, and anyone wanting a decent size credit limit on them could substantiate the other parts bollarcks

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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While the VAT rise is hardly likely to have a positive effect on consumer confidence, what I think must have happened is that people brought forward purchases to beat the VAT rise, so there's a brief hangover of a month or two while the sucked-forward purchases work their way though the system.

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While the VAT rise is hardly likely to have a positive effect on consumer confidence, what I think must have happened is that people brought forward purchases to beat the VAT rise, so there's a brief hangover of a month or two while the sucked-forward purchases work their way though the system.

Now they just have to figure out a way to pay for them.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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