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Anyone Seeing A Spring Bounce?

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I do a weekly Rightmove search through the first 1000 properties with a minimum price of £50,000, using the same search criteria, to see how many have been newly listed as SSTC, using property Bee.

Last year this was averaging between 10 - 20 (1%-2%) per week. This year, it has been averaging at around 1%, and the last few weeks have been below 1% (today's was 0.7%), and I have noticed a lot of these appear as 'SSTC to available' throughout the week.

The 1000th property in my search has also dropped from £102,500 at the start of the year to £97,500 today (note that there are currently 207 properties between these two prices). This shows that either the average price has dropped, or supply has increased, or both.

In summary, I am not seeing any signs of a Spring bounce at the moment.

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I am seeing a lot of new properties coming onto the market, and also properties that only went on Jan-Feb are being reduced.

The Spring Rush is most certainly here - rush of sellers that is. Whether or not there are the buyers to match them remains to be seen.

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Seeing a bounce hear in Birmingham, some silly prices,sold in a few days, plenty going SSTC.

Seen a few top end* WAG Mansions go under offer on a single road on my way home from work (Cobham). But then we are in bonus season.

However a lot of places have for sale and to let signs as they think thatwill save them.

*Before Rachman comes on saying that Fairmile Lane is not top end in Cobham, I know but 1 million to 2 million quid is way past top end for the rest of us :)

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I saw loads of sold signs popping up in Jan. Then in Feb I saw more for sale again, and even ones from six months ago back on the market! Weird that, sale must have dropped through at the last minute.

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Near the yacht club and in the centre of village where a lot of yachties also have their second homes .... we are getting a lot of new stuff come on. They are all in the 400k for a 2-bed terrace... and 500 - 600 - upto 800K for larger town houses in similar location. They are starting to flood that small enclave of town....

Yet in the nicer "standard" areas we are finding general housing is going SSTC / Under offer for a week or less and then coming back on and getting fully relisted. The prices here are staying pretty static at 2007 levels.

Over in the grotty/rougher areas, and areas which are a little out of town where you have got to use car/bus to come in all time if you need to get shopping home etc .prices are falling and some of those are selling and going through. A lot of them are in need of kitchen/bathroom/boiler etc makeovers and general redecorates. You can tell they have been occupied by older people just by photos coming up of them.

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Can't say anything quantitative, but my gut feel is that in my area things are starting to move in selling price terms.

New properties are coming on much lower than before, especially in the sub. £300K area. Still a reluctance amongst exisiting listings to move prices down, even when listed for 2 years or more. These properties look grossly overpriced when compared to fresh stuff on the market at lower prices.

Sold volumes in Jan look abysmal. It will be very interesting to see the Feb and March volumes remain similarly low. The agents must be hurting a lot.

I suspect the trade up from ftb range (sub £250k to say £350k-£450k) is running out of steam as no FTB's for the lower priced housing exist.

I think London still probably relatively immune to price drops due to banker bonuses and foreign investors.

A couple of months ago I didn't think we would see rate rises til September, but now it seems like within the next couple of months or so something will happen. I think the longer the market constipation remains, the more likely that there will be a large and rapid splash when the laxatives are finally taken.

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Spring bounce in new listings certainly. Even some at lower prices! Probaly is a few more buyers about but no where near enough to match the new listings!

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I guess over the last ten years many speculative purchasses have translatedd into comletions in the springtime - if you think about it - slam an offer in around January, wait a few weeks / months before completion to guage the market, complete, paint and slam back on the market or keep for a little longer

Falling prices will put paid to such activity.

Also as prices fall expect people still looking at the market but having made accepted purchase get offerer's remorse see something better / cheaper and drop their exisitng purchase - rinse and repeat as the months roll on.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Then in Feb I saw more for sale again, and even ones from six months ago back on the market! Weird that, sale must have dropped through at the last minute.

I'm seeing these too. I suspect some people took their homes off the market when they attracted no interest last year, intending to put them back on in Spring, "when the market picks up".

Although I'm also seeing a lot of SSTC coming back up as available. Looking at MSE, it seems like a lot of deals are being scuppered when the valuation comes in below what either the seller or the buyer expects (I've seen a few threads, posted by buyers, saying 'Help, the valuation is too low' - ie they still want to pay the full agreed price but can't get the credit to do so and think it's an outrage. :blink: )

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I'm seeing these too. I suspect some people took their homes off the market when they attracted no interest last year, intending to put them back on in Spring, "when the market picks up".

Although I'm also seeing a lot of SSTC coming back up as available. Looking at MSE, it seems like a lot of deals are being scuppered when the valuation comes in below what either the seller or the buyer expects (I've seen a few threads, posted by buyers, saying 'Help, the valuation is too low' - ie they still want to pay the full agreed price but can't get the credit to do so and think it's an outrage. :blink: )

All the hoo-har about the Mortgage Market Review being delayed to 2012 seems rather pointless then, as it would appear the banks are already doing the job of preventing idiots making stupid house purchases.

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I watch a much smaller area and it's utterly static. Certain properties are starting to become old friends in terms of still being on sale month after month and with no sign of prices being lowered. If there has been a spring bounce, it's only an increase in the number of ridiculously overpriced stuff coming to market. Watching paint dry or a re-run of England v Algeria in the World Cup would be more entertaining. Dunno how EAs can survive with this month after month.

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Well, I thought there would be a large increase in volumes this spring (based on my theory that they can't stay this low forever).

I'm seeing very little coming on to the market in my searches, my local large estate agent (Scotland) says the market is quiet with little coming on.

Looks like I'll have to wait another year for sense/fear to kick in.

I find it amazing though that so many people think it's best not to sell now because prices will get better in the near future.

Bring on any kind of shock (oil/property/IR rise..etc)

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.....so many people think it's best not to sell now because prices will get better in the near future.

...they should be thinking better sell now because prices will be a lot lower in the future.... :rolleyes:

http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/mortgages/merlin-misses-out-mortgages-due-to-debt-fear/1027061.article

Home Funding chief executive Tony Ward believes the Bank of England does not want to encourage mortgage lending for fear of inflating the housing market.

Last month, the UK’s biggest banks signed an agreement, called Project Merlin, with the Government to make £190bn available in gross new lending to businesses this year, with £76bn to be made available to SMEs.

However, Ward believes mortgage lending was not included in Project Merlin as the BoE wants to reduce debt in the housing market.

He says: “I have concluded the Bank of England does not want to encourage banks or building societies to lend in the mortgage sector. On a macro global basis, everything is overleveraged and over- leveraging gives rise to asset bubbles. What that means in the UK is we have got one of the biggest asset bubbles in what I think the Bank of England would see as the housing market.”

He says “the last thing” the BoE wants to do is encourage people to take on more debt at the present time.

He adds: “I think the Bank of England would rather see further levels of deleveraging and a further reduction in the asset bubble in the housing market. The last thing they want to do, if I am correct, is to encourage much more lending, particularly at higher levels, because it will encourage the leveraging of consumers.”

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All I can see is a foreseeable stalemate. It's not even about a populace unaware of reality, it's a state of complete denial. They're quite happy to sit it out and so am I.

The change will come when events overtake us as the stalemate is not one that is economically viable. Frankly we've reached a phase where they'd rather sink the economy than willingly accept a loss.

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I do a weekly Rightmove search through the first 1000 properties with a minimum price of £50,000, using the same search criteria, to see how many have been newly listed as SSTC, using property Bee.

Last year this was averaging between 10 - 20 (1%-2%) per week. This year, it has been averaging at around 1%, and the last few weeks have been below 1% (today's was 0.7%), and I have noticed a lot of these appear as 'SSTC to available' throughout the week.

The 1000th property in my search has also dropped from £102,500 at the start of the year to £97,500 today (note that there are currently 207 properties between these two prices). This shows that either the average price has dropped, or supply has increased, or both.

In summary, I am not seeing any signs of a Spring bounce at the moment.

I just bounced a 250k property down to 201k in a local Spring bounce over the cliff. Given I live in the SE--if this part is crashing the rest of the nation is doomed, doomed I tell ye.

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Well, I thought there would be a large increase in volumes this spring (based on my theory that they can't stay this low forever).

I'm seeing very little coming on to the market in my searches, my local large estate agent (Scotland) says the market is quiet with little coming on.

Same here, but lets face it.

1. To move house you'll be re-evaluated for your ability to pay by your mortgage company, many will fall at this hurdle.

2. The mortgage company may insist on a new product, fixed rate, which is much more expensive than their SVR they're on now.

Then you've got EA fees and stamp duty to pay, which isn't an issue in a rising market, but in a stagnant market you're losing 2% to the EA then up to 4% in tax.. so you're losing 6% just to stand still.

Only the usual hatches, failed matches and dispatches are the limited supply for this market.

Without IR increases (useful rises, not just piddly 0.25% rises) most people are just going to hang tight and let inflation take away the stress, this is going to be a real-term-only crash IMHO (much to my annoyance), which is why I'm going to give it until December then I'm going to buy somewhere if things haven't budged

Edited by exiges

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Same here, but lets face it.

1. To move house you'll be re-evaluated for your ability to pay by your mortgage company, many will fall at this hurdle.

2. The mortgage company may insist on a new product, fixed rate, which is much more expensive than their SVR they're on now.

Then you've got EA fees and stamp duty to pay, which isn't an issue in a rising market, but in a stagnant market you're losing 2% to the EA then up to 4% in tax.. so you're losing 6% just to stand still.

Post of the day?

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Only the usual hatches, failed matches and dispatches are the limited supply for this market.

Without IR increases (useful rises, not just piddly 0.25% rises) most people are just going to hang tight and let inflation take away the stress, this is going to be a real-term-only crash IMHO (much to my annoyance), which is why I'm going to give it until December then I'm going to buy somewhere if things haven't budged

Panic is just arround the next corner. 0.25 at a time we will get there. We are the wise! No matter how long it takes.

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Panic is just arround the next corner. 0.25 at a time we will get there. We are the wise! No matter how long it takes.

The BoE has to inflate this away, any other country would have raised rates by now, but no, it's going to keep with this for as long as it can (and then a bit more) which could be several years before getting to a rate at which people now would squeal at, by which time inflation has been running at 5%, wage inflation at 3% (and climbing), houses static, and we'll have only seen real-term drops and people will be able to stomach the rate rise.

BoE won't put rates up unless absolutely forced to by the market.

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I just bounced a 250k property down to 201k in a local Spring bounce over the cliff. Given I live in the SE--if this part is crashing the rest of the nation is doomed, doomed I tell ye.

My area is as stubborn as ever price-wise.

My only consolation is home prices are tanking hard against metals of which I hold plenty (wish I got in way earlier like early 2009 but lacked knowledge and not for the faint hearted!).

Edited by Kazuya

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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