Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
rantnrave

Halifax Data Friday 8Am

Recommended Posts

Have you guys notice that the monthly house price drop more when there is a chance of increasing base rate. Tis month even EU is calling to raise rate.

They may even report more just to stop the rate increase and then call for 1.2%+ the month after.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DT spin on the news:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Halifax-UK-house-prices-slide-tele-300954286.html?x=0

Halifax: UK house prices slide at fastest rate in 16 months

9:01, Friday 4 March 2011

House prices fell at their fastest annual rate for 16 months during February as faltering demand continued to put downward pressure on the property market, mortgage lender Halifax said.

Property values were 2.8pc lower than a year earlier, the biggest drop since October 2009 - based on average prices during the three months to the end of February and the same period a year earlier, according to the Halifax house price index for February .

Prices fell by 0.9pc during February itself, more than wiping out January's 0.8pc rise.

The lender expects house prices in 2011 as a whole to fall by around 2pc, as uncertainty about the economic outlook weighs on housing demand. :lol::lol::lol: pisses oneself :lol::lol: gasps for breath :lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DT spin:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Halifax-UK-house-prices-slide-tele-300954286.html?x=0

9:01, Friday 4 March 2011

House prices fell at their fastest annual rate for 16 months during February as faltering demand continued to put downward pressure on the property market, mortgage lender Halifax said.

Property values were 2.8pc lower than a year earlier, the biggest drop since October 2009 - based on average prices during the three months to the end of February and the same period a year earlier, according to the Halifax house price index for February .

Prices fell by 0.9pc during February itself, more than wiping out January's 0.8pc rise.

The lender expects house prices in 2011 as a whole to fall by around 2pc, as uncertainty about the economic outlook weighs on housing demand. :lol::lol::lol: gasps for breath :lol::lol::lol: does a tinkle :lol::lol::o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The lender expects house prices in 2011 as a whole to fall by around 2pc, as uncertainty about the economic outlook weighs on housing demand. :lol::lol::lol: pisses oneself :lol::lol: gasps for breath :lol::lol:

ROFL :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Property values were 2.8pc lower than a year earlier, the biggest drop since October 2009 - based on average prices during the three months to the end of February and the same period a year earlier, according to the Halifax house price index for February .

...

The lender expects house prices in 2011 as a whole to fall by around 2pc, as uncertainty about the economic outlook weighs on housing demand. :lol::lol::lol: gasps for breath :lol::lol::lol: does a tinkle

:o:lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hee hee it's like reading a football forum this at 5pm on a saturday

after a "defeat" i.e. monthly house price rise, "oh my god, that's it, I'm emigrating", "I agree, f*ck this country", "I'm happy to rent forever, ****** 'em" etc etc

after a "victory" i.e. monthly house price fall, "yes, it's happening", "the sheeple won't know what's hit them", "give it 12 months, and then I'm IN!" "we're on our way to wembley" etc etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So am I right in thinking:

Halifax NSA = +0.1% MoM

Halifax SA = -0.9% MoM

Nationwide NSA = -0.02% MoM

Nationwide SA = +0.3% MoM

If so, Halifax have seasonally adjusted down (turning a small rise into a fall), but Nationwide seasonally adjusted up (turning a very small fall into a small rise)...

Does this mean that Halifax and Nationwide have different climates?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So am I right in thinking:

Halifax NSA = +0.1% MoM

Halifax SA = -0.9% MoM

Nationwide NSA = -0.02% MoM

Nationwide SA = +0.3% MoM

If so, Halifax have seasonally adjusted down (turning a small rise into a fall), but Nationwide seasonally adjusted up (turning a very small fall into a small rise)...

Does this mean that Halifax and Nationwide have different climates?

They're just playing whatever game they've arranged between themselves, as always.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't see anything in any of the monthly figures that suggest anything other than prices are static. I no longer get excited when they show a small fall, or depressed when they show a small rise. This is reflected in the local area I'm looking at, where prices, supply and demand have remained pretty much constant for the last twelve months or so.

People talk about interest rate rises causing a crash, but do you really think the BofE raising interest rates by one percent, or even two percent, will make that much difference? I'm not convinced.

The football analogy is spot on. When my team beat Man Utd it was all 'yeah, we're going to stay up', and when we lost to Bolton it was 'boo, we're getting relegated'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do the Halifax downgrade last month's figures like NW did earlier in the week?

(...)

Yes, but by a very small amout this month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't see anything in any of the monthly figures that suggest anything other than prices are static. I no longer get excited when they show a small fall, or depressed when they show a small rise. This is reflected in the local area I'm looking at, where prices, supply and demand have remained pretty much constant for the last twelve months or so.

People talk about interest rate rises causing a crash, but do you really think the BofE raising interest rates by one percent, or even two percent, will make that much difference? I'm not convinced.

The football analogy is spot on. When my team beat Man Utd it was all 'yeah, we're going to stay up', and when we lost to Bolton it was 'boo, we're getting relegated'.

a rise to 1% is a 100% rise in interest payments.

not so much for many on normal trackers at the mo, but if you are on a base - or a base plus .25%, then that rise is gonna start to bite....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-0.9% is very good :D

Although I think people should look at either the SA or NSA figure and not pick one which suits! I believe seasonal adjustments are essential as I've said in previous posts.

At the moment both are important, particularly due to the size of the seasonality adjustment in some figure such as BoE mortgage figs where the NSA v SA difference can be 70%, easily masking changes in trend.

The Halifax SA (and a number of others are calculated on a 7 year rolling average which includes about 3.5 years of market roaring upwards (which in its self will introduce some interesting artifacts in to the seasonality calculation - a subject for it own thread) followed by a roller coaster ride where the market has been down up and down again so as each month rolls over and replaces another one the seasonality calculation can go all over the place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

a rise to 1% is a 100% rise in interest payments.

not so much for many on normal trackers at the mo, but if you are on a base - or a base plus .25%, then that rise is gonna start to bite....

i'd argue... not reallllllyyyyy

Those mortgagees on those kinds of deals will have been on them for a few years because as soon as the SHTF the banks stopped offering them. Thus those borrowers are a good way down the mortgage repayment road and the interest component of their monthly payment will be smaller. I'd say a lot of people on those deals will be overpaying and a IR rise will just result in them throttling back on that.

Those most vulnerable to interest rate hikes are recent borrowers, where interest payments are the majority of the monthly payment. And as the banks have helpfully clocked up their variable / fixed rates to 3, 4, 5% over the base rate (or a 1000% more than the base rate if we're doing the percentages of percentages thang), then those borrowers are already in some respects insulated against a piffling 0.5% increase as the banks are already treating the base rate with contempt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So am I right in thinking:

Halifax NSA = +0.1% MoM

Halifax SA = -0.9% MoM

Nationwide NSA = -0.02% MoM

Nationwide SA = +0.3% MoM

If so, Halifax have seasonally adjusted down (turning a small rise into a fall), but Nationwide seasonally adjusted up (turning a very small fall into a small rise)...

Does this mean that Halifax and Nationwide have different climates?

Seasonal Adjustment is a joke.

Shares rise more in Nov-April than they do in May-Oct but you don't see FTSE or S&P seasonally adjusting their indices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway:

_51517396_house_prices_feb2011_464.gif

With such a divergence, one of these two is significantly more out of touch than the other. Fingers crossed it's Nationwide that will start to match Halifax's figures and not vice-versa...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway:

_51517396_house_prices_feb2011_464.gif

I like this graph.

BTW As I posted in other threads, Nationwide have recently jacked up all their rates by almost 1%. Their rates are pretty uncompetitive now compared to just a month ago. I think they'll have a bad few months as buyers look elsewhere for their loans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So am I right in thinking:

Halifax NSA = +0.1% MoM

Halifax SA = -0.9% MoM

Nationwide NSA = -0.02% MoM

Nationwide SA = +0.3% MoM

If so, Halifax have seasonally adjusted down (turning a small rise into a fall), but Nationwide seasonally adjusted up (turning a very small fall into a small rise)...

Does this mean that Halifax and Nationwide have different climates?

There is traditionally a large rise in the NSA figure in Feb due to the spring bounce, one of the reasons SA is used:

Looking the MoM NSA figures for the last number of years that are used for the SA calculation ( the preceeding 7 years):

2004 +2.6% (+£3.7k)

2005 -0.1%

2006 +2.2% (+£3.7k)

2007 +2.8% (+£5.1k)

2008 +0.3%

2009 -0.4%

2010 -0.4%

Average +1.0% (which happens to match their difference between -0.9 & +0.1)

The Halifax seasonality includes several years of rampant HPI as an artefact as it is not an inflation/growth rate adjusted seasonality

Not in the SA calc 2011 +0.1%

Seasonality needs to be take with pinch of salt at the moment.

The Nationwide proceeding 7 years data is different so the seasonality will be different...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway:

_51517396_house_prices_feb2011_464.gif

Both graphs seem to be showing a slowing trend there.

The billion dollar question, though, is why?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With such a divergence, one of these two is significantly more out of touch than the other. Fingers crossed it's Nationwide that will start to match Halifax's figures and not vice-versa...

The difference is probably mix adjustment (unless NW are being less strict with their lending i.e more relaxed about surveyors valuations)

Halifax includes mix adjustment which compensates for the fact that very few smaller (FTB type) properties are being sold.

Nationwide doesn't so the fact that only large higher priced places are selling, pulling the index upwards...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both Halifax and Nationwide adjust their January and February figures upwards to smooth out the price swings due to seasonal fluctuation.

Halifax increase their January figures upwards by about 1.66% in January and then upwards by about 0.6% in Febryary then 0.3% in March. So its possible for the NSA figure to be higher in January but the SA figure to be a drop of 0.9%.

Nationwide Increase February by a larger amount than January! (opposite to Halifax) Hence this months diverging figures between Halifax and Nationwide. In fact these are the upward revisions for the past few years for Naitonwide

Jan Feb Mar

11 1.73% 2.02%

10 1.66 1.89 0.59

09 1.54 1.71 0.53

08 1.44 1.52 0.48

Had the revision beent eh same as last year then the figure would have been 'flat' ish. Had the January figure not been revised down in February the figure of February price to original January price would have been negative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.