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The Ice Caps Are Melting

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stock up on canned goods and get ready to return to the stone age... f I posted this I would be laughed at.

The Icecaps are melting, Global Warming is a fact but what the impact will be and how soon it will occur is debatable.

Yet some of the posts here on the HPC and the responses generated are arguably as likely as my icecaps scenario.

Nothing will happen rapidly, the effects, if prices do drop, are debatable and the extent of the crash is questionable ( some economists have stuck their neck out with 20 -30% predictions) yet it sometimes seems as if posters here are waiting for economic armageddon that will allow someone on 12K to buy a house. This is doubtful.

Also there is the matter of timescale. I believe that small month on month drops of 0.1 per cent or so are likely for another 12-18 months unless interest rates jump to over 6% suddenly.

So far in the areas I have been monitoring its a slow but steady decline and houses are selling, just at a small reduction.

Dont want to rain on your parade but it seems to me that many of the newer posters on the forum are a little bit younger and possibly more radical (and impatient) in their views.

I would really welcome some more posts from (sensible) bullish posters who can give evidence (anecdotal) or otherwise on why a slowdown\ stagnation may be a more likely scenario than the full blown armegedon favoured by many on the forum . (But please property Guruesque types not the prices always go up cos of immigrants/pent up demand drivel)

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Nothing will happen rapidly, the effects, if prices do drop, are debatable and the extent of the crash is questionable ( some economists have stuck their neck out with 20 -30% predictions) yet it sometimes seems as if posters here are waiting for economic armageddon that will allow someone on 12K to buy a house. This is doubtful.

I think the general consensus is that we'll move from the -0.1/-0.2% per month range to more like the -1% per month range as the stalemate with sellers refusing to lower prices evapourates.

There are signs that we might be moving into this phase right now with reports of a slight pick up in transactions (notably all the same reports also tuck away somewhere that they expect prices to keep falling too!).

All the anecdotal evidence on the street points to people should expect to shift places at -10% from the top of the boom prices and I expect we'll see that start to filter through into the rear view mirror stats like the hali-wide figures pretty soon. You can already see it coming into the Hometrack and FT stats right now.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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I think the general consensus is that we'll move from the -0.1/-0.2% per month range to more like the -1% per month range as the stalemate with sellers refusing to lower prices evapourates.

I would welcome this but have seen some evidence recently that several friends (some had STR'd before and got impatient and others who are couples who each had flats and now in their 30's have been happy to sell flats at what looks like an attractive 10 - 15% discount but then have been happy to pay top $ for a good family home as they have found them hard to come by) so keeping the market chugging along slowly ....

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I would welcome this but have seen some evidence recently that several friends (some had STR'd before and got impatient and others who are couples who each had flats and now in their 30's have been happy to sell flats at what looks like an attractive 10 - 15% discount but then have been happy to pay top $ for a good family home as they have found them hard to come by) so keeping the market chugging along slowly ....

Well the more sought after properties are always the one's which hold their value better in a falling market... but they do fall, just later in the cycle when those moving into them aren't getting the proceeds they need from their sales to meet the costs.

They are basically just higher up the food chain.

The phenomena of rent to buy is helping to keep this going right now but will most likely not seem such a good idea when the nations collective mind wakes up to the reality of sinking asset values.

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Well the more sought after properties are always the one's which hold their value better in a falling market... but they do fall, just later in the cycle when those moving into them aren't getting the proceeds they need from their sales to meet the costs.

They are basically just higher up the food chain.

The phenomena of rent to buy is helping to keep this going right now but will most likely not seem such a good idea when the nations collective mind wakes up to the reality of sinking asset values.

Again bear with me while I play devils advocate but I have seen several instances of this in Bristol where housing under 250K seems to be selling slow but sure in my area. Over 250K seems to sit on the market for a long while before being put up for rent but then is snapped up VERY quickly as there is a large amount of student accomodation, but very little decent family stuff and the people who rent it tend to be families who want a long term rental for security reasons which makes my long drawn out scenario seems more plausable than the rapid descent....

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Things will really kick of when people with investment property find out they have made a bad investment. They will all sell making their investment worse as desperation starts – think of the average BTL’er losing £10000 a year – they just cannot afford it.

Also I have been looking (after the crash) to buy a house on high ground as I think like the HPC global warming will start to pick up pace. I think hills will become good investments!

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which makes my long drawn out scenario seems more plausable than the rapid descent....

Hometrack have the market in England and Wales down -3.7% annually already... that is already above the rate needed for your long drawn out scenario surely (note they were originally forecasting 0% for this year!).

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Hometrack have the market in England and Wales down -3.7% annually already... that is already above the rate needed for your long drawn out scenario surely (note they were originally forecasting 0% for this year!).

I would have thought so yet 8 houses in the area I live have all sold and a friend who has put his house on the market has just had 5 offers in 2 weeks (around 10K under asking and 2 of them are now in a bidding war)

The longer the VI's can spin this out and the BOE faff about with interest rates the longer this can go on - your average Jo is clueless about economics - even the expats house selling thread lists around 45 people in the poll with nearly half having accepted an offer ....

I can see this going on for a while yet

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I would have thought so yet 8 houses in the area I live have all sold and a friend who has put his house on the market has just had 5 offers in 2 weeks (around 10K under asking and 2 of them are now in a bidding war)

The longer the VI's can spin this out and the BOE faff about with interest rates the longer this can go on - your average Jo is clueless about economics - even the expats house selling thread lists around 45 people in the poll with nearly half having accepted an offer .... 

I can see this going on for a while yet

Indeed but remember we're only at the start and these things don't usually happen in a straight line. Sentiment always snowballs hence the sine wave style effects you get in a boom/bust cycle graphs.

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Things will really kick of when people with investment property find out they have made a bad investment. They will all sell making their investment worse as desperation starts – think of the average BTL’er losing £10000 a year – they just cannot afford it.

I believe you are right but the question is how long before they bail out and how low will they go?

Also I have been looking (after the crash) to buy a house on high ground as I think like the HPC global warming will start to pick up pace. I think hills will become good investments!

Not such a daft idea - the though has also crossed my mind. I certainly wont be wanting a river view on my property who knows may buy on the top of a hill and end up with my own private island ....

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Agreed – my friend just got a offer from a BTL’er on his flat + my cousin is still looking for a BTL flat in bounemouth (got a £250000 bonus to spend (left after buying one a x-mas))

I wouldn't base any of your decisions on the property market based on anecdotal evidence of someone who has a £250K bonus to play with.

Hardly an average sample really.

Remember people we're still buying into Amazon at $70 after they peaked at $84 :-)

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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I wouldn't base any of your decisions on the property market based on anecdotal evidence of someone who has a £250K bonus to play with.

Hardly an average sample really.

Unfortunately I know of many people with that figure and plenty more as they are couples who each bought years ago and have a large amount of cash to play with. I also know of 3 sets of friends parents who have sold up their 3/4 bed houses and have moved into new build 2 beds as they just want a UK base while they swan around the globe with healthy pensions and some hefty equity

this is why i welcome bulllish anecdotals

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Remember people we're still buying into Amazon at $70 after they peaked at $84 :-)

Still takes time for people to see that prices are going down –he obviously is not stupid but still falls into that long time investment trap.

It will take a lot more of what’s happening for people to realize what is really happening

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Unfortunately I know of many people with that figure and plenty more as they are couples who each bought years ago and have a large amount of cash to play with. I also know of 3 sets of friends parents who have sold up their 3/4 bed houses and have moved into new build 2 beds as they just want a UK base while they swan around the globe with healthy pensions and some hefty equity

this is why i welcome bulllish anecdotals

Lucky you, if they have any spare cash please direct them to http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/ which can always do with a bit more :)

But these guys don't make the market. They play in their own subsection of it and will have very little impact in the grand scheme of things.

You have to look at where the volume is and it certainly isn't these guys.

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bulllish anecdotals

These guys don’t make the market – but when they have changed their minds about property always going up – then sentiment has changed

I still get my father in-law coming round telling me to buy now rather than carry on wasting my money on a rented place. Give some time and job losses he will come round to tell me that it a good job he persuaded me to rent rather that buy and think of all that money he saved me by getting me to wait. Years after that he will be telling me to buy gold before it’s to late and I will go out and get a house

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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