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Realistbear

Housing Market report - 2 different spins - merged threads

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8358677/Housing-market-bounces-back.html

Housing market bounces back
Activity in the housing market bounced back during February, helping to put a brake on property price falls, research has indicated.
By PA 2:50AM GMT 03 Mar 2011
The number of people looking to buy a home increased for the first time in eight months, rising by 14.7pc, due to a combination of traditional seasonal factors and pent-up demand following a very weak second half of 2010, property intelligence firm Hometrack said.
The surge in demand helped to limit price falls in England and Wales to 0.2pc, the smallest decline for six months.
There was also a 7.5pc jump in the number of homes being put up for sale, the biggest monthly increase for three years, while agreed sales soared by 25pc during the month.
Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said: ''This is the first increase in demand for housing for eight months and represents a mix of seasonal and pent-up demand feeding back into the market after a 20pc decline in buyer numbers over the second half of 2010.
''While the number of homes coming onto the market has grown by 7.5pc over February, the 25pc increase in sales agreed will further erode supply and support the continued decline in the rate of price falls.''

Looks like a weird Spring Bounce against a backdrop of the worst financial conditions in decades--strapped homeowners struggling to pay off debt, higher taxes, restricted access to even more debt (credit), massive job cuts........

That said, the country does have a habit of making HPI its number one obsession and it may not be possible to break the boom-bust. And right now there seems to be a bit of a boom. I sadly contributed to it last week by offering on a property as my demand was so pent up (tired of waiting) that I offered on a property and its going through (so far).

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/u-k-house-prices-fall-as-supply-of-properties-surges-most-in-three-years.html

U.K. House Prices Fall as Supply of Properties Surges Most in Three Years
By Svenja O’Donnell - Mar 3, 2011 12:01 AM GMT
U.K. house prices fell for an eighth month in February as the supply of homes for sale increased the most in three years, Hometrack Ltd. said.
The average cost of a home fell 0.2 percent from January, the London-based property researcher said in an e-mailed report today. Prices in London were unchanged, according to Hometrack, which no longer publishes an average property price. The supply of homes for sale jumped 7.5 percent.
“With supply likely to remain in check, it is the outlook for demand that will have the greatest impact on pricing levels and market activity in the coming months,” Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell said in the report. “We expect a continued modest pick-up in demand over March but the timing of interest rate rises is critical.”

Bloomberg put a bearish spin on HT news whereas the Telegraph see it as a bounce back.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE72200K20110303?ca=rdt

News

Feb house price fall biggest in a year -

Thu Mar 3, 2011 5:38am GMT

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell at their fastest annual rate in more than a year in February, although a rebound in new buyers slowed the fall on the month, a survey showed on Thursday.

Property data firm Hometrack said prices fell 0.2 percent in February, the smallest monthly decline since July, after a drop of 0.5 percent in January.

However, the data are not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, and Hometrack said the improvement could be due to a mix of seasonal factors and pent-up demand after weakness at the end of 2010.

Indeed, on an annual basis, house prices fell 2.7 percent last month -- the biggest fall since November 2009, after a 2.2 percent annual decline in January, suggesting that underlying conditions on the housing market remain weak.

Official data earlier this week showed net mortgage lending picked up to its highest in almost a year in January after a fall in December, but mortgage approvals are still running at only half their long-run average. Surveys from mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax have both shown house prices falling on an annual basis for some months, and most economists expect prices to fall slightly this year.

Hometrack said there was a 7.5 percent rise in the number of homes put up for sale in February -- the biggest increase in three years. But estate agents reported a 14.7 percent increase in people registering an interest to buy. There was a 25.4 percent rise in the number of sales agreed.

"Lower price falls will be sustained if demand for housing continues to grow in the coming months," said Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell.

"The reality is that the outlook for the market remains finely balanced."

Although most people on here abuse seasonal adjustments they are essential to see how the Market is doing without the effects of seasonality. I'm very suprised that this still showed a fall considering the lack of SA. this index will definitely rise in the next couple of months unless the Market collapses completely.

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The ONLY thing that will bring house prices down to 'reality' will be the increasing cost of energy come dwindling indigenous energy supply.

Money is money. You can live without it, but try the same without energy.

All this nonsense about IR's means jack squat, especially in our system.

When you can't service your debt AND can't afford to keep yourself warm, that's when the sh1t hits the fan.

When this happens is a point of issue for many, but you lot just care about taxes and IR's. There are much bigger fish to fry I'm afraid.

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You got to love surging supply :) biggest surge since early 2008 then. 20% down this year?

I believe prices will drop 15-20% this year. The house I offerd on resulted in a 20% drop from what was not an unreasonable asking price last year!

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Press release from Febuary 2008: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20080225.cfm

Price fall 0.2%

Despite the continued weakness in underlying prices, February's survey showed signs of improving demand with the first increase in new buyer registrations since last summer. Firming demand and an increase in the number of sales agreed, explain the small improvement in the month on month rate of growth.

...

The increase in new buyers this month is well down on levels expected for the start of the spring market. Over the last 3 years, the increase in new buyers registering with agents each February has averaged 25%,

So this spring demand is lower than a normal average spring bounce.

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http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE72200K20110303?ca=rdt

Although most people on here abuse seasonal adjustments they are essential to see how the Market is doing without the effects of seasonality. I'm very suprised that this still showed a fall considering the lack of SA. this index will definitely rise in the next couple of months unless the Market collapses completely.

They have a nice chart here:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/market-snapshot/house_price_growth.cfm

(I don't know if it was smoothed-out by SA or not.)

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I couldn't find the original Hometrack report. Where is it??

They take ages to put up on their website, should be there some time today. It's emailed to the press early morning.

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They take ages to put up on their website, should be there some time today. It's emailed to the press early morning.

Thanks.

In 1 or 2 weeks we will have some good data about the supply side for February, as RightMove should update those charts showing monthly supply.

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Time to turn Bull, just as that offer is accepted.

Here in London prices are the same as they ever were, not going up but not really going down.

Not really. I see years of trouble ahead. The market around where I live is crashing--my offer reflected a 20% drop from last years selling prices. I expect to see the market drop 15-20% this year and not to see any real recovery for another 2 or 3 years after that.

The US are slowly pulling out of their HPC-induced economic meltdown and they were first in, admittted it was happening, and got on with repairing the walls. We are still in denial in this country.

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It appears that the great British public still firmly believe that you must spend as much as you possibly can beg, buy, or steal on a house as soon as you can no matter what else is going on. It's so stupid it's depressing.

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Bounces back with a 0.2% fall?

This should be merged with RBs other thread with the opposing headline on the same report!

Edit: thanks!

Edited by Pent Up

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I confess to not being a student of the housing market - I mainly come on here for economic/political debate - but could one simple explanation for this be that there is a sustained process of transfer of house ownership going from the occupier to the rentier adding to owner to owner demand? Such a process would sustain prices if the pace of growth in rentier was strong enough and the demand came from sources not suffering from some aspects of the recession.

And before that is swallowed up in vitriol, isn't it the case that this would move us toward the German model, where home ownership is not seen as the be all and end all, and as a side effect increasing mobility?

Edited by bogbrush

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It appears that the great British public still firmly believe that you must spend as much as you possibly can beg, buy, or steal on a house as soon as you can no matter what else is going on. It's so stupid it's depressing.

It is depressing - recent sold prices Im looking at in London are still up to 100k above the 2004/2005 price which is back where I need them to be. Ive even seen repo's with offers over the listed price, people just dont seem to be getting it at all!

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We'll see small rises and falls over the coming months - in short, data that shows no significant trend. This time next year I think house prices will be about where they are now. No golden buying opportunity for get-rich-quick property investors but a wasted year for those who put off buying in the hope that prices will go down.

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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We'll see small rises and falls over the coming months - in short, data that shows no significant trend. This time next year I think house prices will be about where they are now. No golden buying opportunity for get-rich-quick property investors but a wasted year for those who put off buying in the hope that prices will go down.

It won't be a wasted year if you're adding to your deposit in that time.

Another years savings and I'll be in a very good position indeed :D

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It is depressing - recent sold prices Im looking at in London are still up to 100k above the 2004/2005 price which is back where I need them to be. Ive even seen repo's with offers over the listed price, people just dont seem to be getting it at all!

If you compound inflation up for the last five years it comes to 16.2%.House prices need to be that much higher than Q1 2006 to have maintained their value. Halifax figures for East Anglia (My own area so not chosen for any other reason) show a decline from 557.8 to 520.7 - 6.7%. So the real value falls have been in the order of 23%.

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Local auction house has added some additional propertys to the March Auction list. Several of them they have an interest in. So they're confident they can make a quick buck from buying off distressed/urgent sellers.

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this would move us toward the German model, where home ownership is not seen as the be all and end all, and as a side effect increasing mobility?

Which would be fine if renters had a few more rights... which will presumably happen if enough of the electorate are renting...

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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