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ralphmalph

Would Ireland Defaultin On Bank Bonds Crash Europe/uk

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http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021762.shtml

I do not think this is helpful to the Enda Kelly we will default the banks bonds if you are not nice to us. Because at the bottom of the article is a view from Cork Uni that half the Irish bank bonds are held by Republic of Ireland people. Looks like it would make a bad situation much worse.

Irish-bank-bonds-Feb172011.jpg

Edited by ralphmalph

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Hasnt Ireland as a state borrowed lots from the European fund and the UK?

I think that a threat to default on this debt would give it all the leverage it needs.

They did not get it all in one go it is phased with criteria having to be met to get the next tranche, etc.

What they have done is borrowed loads of the ECB that they have got there hands on.

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They did not get it all in one go it is phased with criteria having to be met to get the next tranche, etc.

What they have done is borrowed loads of the ECB that they have got there hands on.

RalphMalph,

I am sure that you are right. The graph at the top of the thread clearly shows a falling amount of borrowings. Given that Ireland hasnt been running a massive fiscal surplus lately, the difference can only have come from more borrowing elsewhere.

So it has plenty of debt somewhere which it can threaten to default on if it isnt allowed to renege on its debt.

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RalphMalph,

I am sure that you are right. The graph at the top of the thread clearly shows a falling amount of borrowings. Given that Ireland hasnt been running a massive fiscal surplus lately, the difference can only have come from more borrowing elsewhere.

So it has plenty of debt somewhere which it can threaten to default on if it isnt allowed to renege on its debt.

That chart is very specifically Bank Bond debt. It is not goverment debt or total bank debt (ie lending to the economy).

The reason the total Bank bond debt has declinded is the Irish govt have put cash into the banks and the holders of Irish bank bonds have asked for there cash back and got it.

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The pertinent question, IMO, is whether the economic implications or the political implications would be greater.

This article would seem to suggest the latter, especially in the short-term and especially if conflicting and uncompromising stances by Germany plus one or more of the PIG countries eventually causes the dam to burst and one of the latter to leave the euro. The question is what happens if Kelly tries to 'renegotiate' and is told by the Merkel camp to fook off. As one right-of-centre Irish commentator noted during the election campaign, 'Like the Somalian pirates, we have a hostage - the euro'. Will Kelly pull the trigger if push comes to shove?

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Because at the bottom of the article is a view from Cork Uni that half the Irish bank bonds are held by Republic of Ireland people.

An awful lot of the Irish population will have no bonds at all, yet they must still pay for the bailout. In fact most of the bonds will be held by the top 1% of the population, as with all asset classes. Thus in reality the poor are being asked to become poorer so that the rich may retain their station. I contend that the rich will lose far more money in a default than the poor. The rich argue that if they lose some of their wealth, they will not be able to employ a cleaner so the poor cleaner suffers. Yet the cleaner does not want to remain a cleaner, he wants to own the house and have the formally rich man clean for him. By supporting the rich man he does not need to sell the house to the cleaner and so the rich stay rich and the poor poor.

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no.

If they can afford to Bail an entity, they can afford to Bail the Entities creditors....Its the same amount.

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An awful lot of the Irish population will have no bonds at all, yet they must still pay for the bailout. In fact most of the bonds will be held by the top 1% of the population, as with all asset classes. Thus in reality the poor are being asked to become poorer so that the rich may retain their station. I contend that the rich will lose far more money in a default than the poor. The rich argue that if they lose some of their wealth, they will not be able to employ a cleaner so the poor cleaner suffers. Yet the cleaner does not want to remain a cleaner, he wants to own the house and have the formally rich man clean for him. By supporting the rich man he does not need to sell the house to the cleaner and so the rich stay rich and the poor poor.

The article states that the major holders of Irish bonds are Irish public sector pension funds. This is the point of the article. If haircuts are applied it is the nurses, social workers, etc that will suffer through reduced pensions.

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The article states that the major holders of Irish bonds are Irish public sector pension funds. This is the point of the article. If haircuts are applied it is the nurses, social workers, etc that will suffer through reduced pensions.

Someone has to suffer.

There are those that you may like to do the suffering, but you are limited as to who you can actually choose to do the suffering. From what I can see, even if they grabbed as much of the banksters and their crony politicos assets, there would still be a big debt outstanding.

So choose. Who is going to lose out here? The taxpayers generally, pension scheme members specifically, or those who so recently lent money to the Irish Government? You can choose a bit of all 3 if you like, but the Irish government cannot avoid this choice.

What is your choice?

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Someone has to suffer.

There are those that you may like to do the suffering, but you are limited as to who you can actually choose to do the suffering. From what I can see, even if they grabbed as much of the banksters and their crony politicos assets, there would still be a big debt outstanding.

So choose. Who is going to lose out here? The taxpayers generally, pension scheme members specifically, or those who so recently lent money to the Irish Government? You can choose a bit of all 3 if you like, but the Irish government cannot avoid this choice.

What is your choice?

Taxpayers, because that's already happening.

Then pension scheme members, because that's pretty much baked in.

If it can be shown that some rich folk and some saxon folk are getting a kicking too, that will sugar the pill for everyone else.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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