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fiddle

Long Ramble, Culminating In Random Idea

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Funnily enough I wanted to post to this a while ago onto http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=159662&hl=shortage&st=0 having not ever felt compelled to actually post before. Yet didn’t get round to it to now as it entailed writing a bit more than my dyslexic mind could be assed with .. apologies if it’s not all that succinct.

The thread seems to have died, and I haven’t read it all, and seem to have gone off on a tangent anyways.. so starting a newun: not for the faint hearted, feel free to cut to the bottom couple of paragraphs after line of ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~S

SUPPLY

Elderly people downsizing/ going into care/ having their kids (+ families) moving in to look after them or moving in with their kid’s families or indeed the newer phenomenon - house sharing.. Seeing it more and more, elderly folk being lonely and taking in lodgers, or when needing more care a lodger to help out around the house for reduced rent moving on to house sharing with another elderly person/friend to share nursing costs and not be so lonely when partner has died.

Or the increasing trend of selling/renting out your home and cruising until the state will have to look after you anyway, as the care supplied on a boat is often better than in any home you could afford.

reduction in away from home student numbers (both foreign and domestic as visas are restricted and tuition fees and living expensed go up + cutting of the era means less still will be getting there. far more kids who do make it will go to units near home to avoid excess living costs.

Influx of foreigners declining.. and to be honest their increase in population was not pro rata to the amount of living space most brits want/demand. historically immigrants were more of the permanent type (apart from AUS and NZ) most came to stay set up family and join our multicultural society. new immigrants don't see England as a good place to settle, tend to be younger, work for a few years living in heavily populated shared accommodation and send money home for a few years then follow it back home once they want to settle down.

more environmentally minded people are living in flat/house shares to cut down on emissions per person, also more stretched people are doing the same to save the money/meet their mortgage/rent bills.

loads of old houses previously sheltering 2 elderly people kept (and keep) being converted into several small flats.. despite it being slightly hypocritical to the amount of space we demand, brits are taking up less and less space, houses/flats smaller and smaller (+walls thinner and thinner).

increased access to work from home means people no longer have to live so close to a place of work, hopefully leading to some of the tonnes of empty places being brought back into usage.

a lot of the population increase over recent yrs. has been more a result of a decrease in death rate, apart from this resulting in more elderly, which in care take up little space, this isn't going to be much of a future driver as the NHS collapses around us. Promises for people to becared for in their homes will soon bow to nurse can’t be in a car driving form patient to patient for ¾ of his/her working day and they will be moved into homes. cuts here there and everywhere are not going to help them maintain any degree of service. + increased food + heating combined with more severe weather conditions will ensure death rate doesn’t improve much. superbugs are becoming less and less treatable by our misuse of antibiotics. and super flus by underdeveloped countries may even cause a sharp shock to our population. hardly managed to contain the swine flu now did we, wait till it’s something really lethal.

benefits system is changing.. lowering the rental money you can get.. and they say taking away the "unfairness" of being penalised for not living alone. so people will be less dissuaded from flat/house sharing with friends/loved ones. 40% cut in the help with mortgages to the unemployed (not that i know anyone who has actually managed to claim it after redundancy this recession- sooo much red tape) will mean many will have to sell up, similar decrease in rent will being down rental revenues and the BTLers will smell the roses and drop out as fast as they can.

Tho’ repossessions went down last year, as government pressure to stop them dwindles and mortgage lenders see the unlikely hood of peoples situations being "short term" anymore I’m pretty sure they'll be up at record levels again soon. a number of initiatives to help people facing repossession are being scrapped, cost of mortgage and living are going up. people may just be scraping by now but as the year progresses for many this will change

Home owners with low equity are finding it hard to find a new mortgage, so when their fixed term ends there stuck at extortionate rates (esp as interest goes up) and if they don't want to sell will need to take in lodgers.

Homeowners who a few years ago bought into the more reputable equity release “we buy your house and rent it back to you” schemes are beginning to be turfed out for the houses to be sold before the real crash kicks in, or rental goes down, so that they can buy more, setting higher rents for the term during the next downfall..

despots in the middle east may soon be having to sell up their mahoosive portfolios of UK properties.

Some councils are finally doing something about the tonnes of empty and derelict properties all over the place.

recession as a whole will lessen the number of people who can afford that little place in the country, or extra flat in London to cut down the commuting for 3 nights a week.

A lot of the big time landlords already rode the wave of buy to redevelop brought on by trashy DIY TV programs and offloaded their below average portfolio to people spurred on by the money they could make renovating. Then the midrange stuff to the BTL’s wanting to save for their retirements, and are now offloading the last of their prime bits and bobs left to those cash buyers left in the market.

Most of these new property owners won’t be as able to sit on their assets as the big landlords were in the last crash, which they had not had as much time or media manipulation to prepare for. These people will have to sell when the going gets tough, because many of them will have overstretched themselves past the point of no return once all the factors above come to fruition..

And then there’s DEMAND

Well what can I say.. there still seems to be a lot, despite my protestations several friends have bought properties in the past few years, many more have stretched themselves to upsize and even a few have upsized while BTLing their old place.

The media has done a fantastic job of telling everyone it’s the thing to do. And there still believing it like sheep to the slaughter they make offers on piles of sh1te believing they can do it up and make a profit then move up to the next house and do the same. “getting on the ladder” seems to be the name of the game.

But the banks can see it’s not a safe bet, and so long as they protect people from themselves and don’t reopen disproportionate credit lines it should allow the fall to happen, albeit slowly.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Started as a side note BUT I GUESS THIS IS MY QUESTION NOW:

One demand no one seems to consider is the demand for affordable social/council housing… what I see as a way to lessen the fall is the government taking the place of the “we buy your house and rent it back to you” yobs

The cost of selling properties, and the damage done by previous ”owners” prior to eviction, the fact that a lot of them would become a strain on the housing benefits people anyways.. surely there’s a market for writing off the debt with the bank (at a reduced % of what it is off the money the bank owes the government) righting off the debt to the person, ie letting the negative equity go, or offering it as a small rise in rent until it is paid off if you really want to be tight.

Then offering them guaranteed rental rates as per council housing, but without the right to buy for say 10 yrs instead of 5 (not sure what happened to the review of that lib dems were trying to get it extended/abolished anyways)

Would certainly have less problems than building new estates.. even the “affordable housing” in the new builds stand out like sore thumbs, creating an “us and them” mentality.

People in the road wouldn’t even know without looking that their neighbour was now in a council house, much better integration for people.

Those who want to leave their house, or can’t afford the market rent on it can join the council house swap scheme thing so get to jump the queue of “expectant mums and immigrants” (tho’ I suspect the queue is far more diverse than that) and at least not end up having to stay in hostels for their complicity in the arrangement.. a v worthwhile perk imho.

This could cut the supply to the market, lessen the crash, lessen to sting to millions, and get the government out of owning so much of the bank all in one move… I’m sure I’ve missed some negative points to this, so please anyone who managed to decipher my typoneese thus far feel free to comment/ schlap me back into reality if that’s even possible.

Edited by fiddle

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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