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Realistbear

My E A Has Just Been Made Redundant

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My EA just rang me last night to "put his cards on the table." He has been made redundant which is a sad thing as he has been one of the most forthright HPI-cynical people I have met recently. I think he is glad to be getting out of the PONZI but will find it difficult finding other work.

I am waiting to hear on my final offer and he is selling both houses in my short chain so he will make one final commission before the dole. Pity--as I hate to see "one of us" out of work.

The house market is crashing and the VIs are hyping their heads off. The reality is EA redundancies, transaction levels at recent record lows and mortgage activity still half what it was.

Edited by Realistbear

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My EA just rang me last night to "put his cards on the table." He has been made redundant which is a sad thing as he has been one of the most forthright HPI-cynical people I have met recently. I think he is glad to be getting out of the PONZI but will find it difficult finding other work.

I am waiting to hear on my final offer and he is selling both houses in my short chain so he will make one final commission before the dole. Pity--as I hate to see "one of us" out of work.

The house market is crashing and the VIs are hyping their heads off. The reality is EA redundancies, transaction levels at recent record lows and mortgage activity still half what it was.

I suppose your chum was "just following orders" then when ramping property to mugs and indebting the nation a few years back.

Incidentally, why are you buying a house if you think it's all about to go pear-shaped? Hold your fire for a couple of years and wait till there's blood on the streets.

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I suppose your chum was "just following orders" then when ramping property to mugs and indebting the nation a few years back.

Incidentally, why are you buying a house if you think it's all about to go pear-shaped? Hold your fire for a couple of years and wait till there's blood on the streets.

I put in a cheeky offer a few days ago and was a bit shocked when it was accepted (as was the EA). House on t' market at peak for £325k. Offer of £200 accepted! TBH, if it goes through I think it will take into account the next 2 years drops (30%).

If it doesn't go through I will have to wait as I am still priced out.

Edited by Realistbear

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Seriously though, what was the reason?

My best guess: 50% drop in transaction levels. Thay said, the number of new listings (5 mi radius of my PC) coming on in the last 14 days is huge:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchType=SALE&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE%5E1712402&insId=1&radius=5.0&displayPropertyType=&minBedrooms=&maxBedrooms=&minPrice=200000&maxPrice=250000&retirement=&partBuyPartRent=&maxDaysSinceAdded=&_includeSSTC=on&sortByPriceDescending=&primaryDisplayPropertyType=&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=&oldDisplayPropertyType=&oldPrimaryDisplayPropertyType=&newHome=&auction=false&x=71&y=12

58 properties for sale found £200-£250k

263 properties for sale found all prices

Can't wait to see the Spring rush begin which should be about now given that March has arrived.

Edited by Realistbear

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I put in a cheeky offer a few days ago and was a bit shocked when it was accepted I(as was the EA). House on t' market at peak for £325k. Offer of £200 accepted! TBH, if it goes through I think it will take into account the next 2 years drops (30%).

If it doesn't go through I will have to waint as I am still priced out.

Good luck with it - I guess they must be very desperate. There'll be far more people who'll be far more desperate in a couple of years time though.

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Good luck with it - I guess they must be very desperate. There'll be far more people who'll be far more desperate in a couple of years time though.

The EA managed to talk down the end of the 2-house chain. They dropped from 215k to 200k giving my vendor a strait swap. The other property probably peaked at about £275k so I am getting the better discount.

TBH I am not holding my breath as my vendor is apprently "wobbling."

Edited by Realistbear

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My best guess: 50% drop in transaction levels. Thay said, the number of new listings (5 mi radius of my PC) coming on in the last 14 days is huge:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchType=SALE&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE%5E1712402&insId=1&radius=5.0&displayPropertyType=&minBedrooms=&maxBedrooms=&minPrice=200000&maxPrice=250000&retirement=&partBuyPartRent=&maxDaysSinceAdded=&_includeSSTC=on&sortByPriceDescending=&primaryDisplayPropertyType=&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=&oldDisplayPropertyType=&oldPrimaryDisplayPropertyType=&newHome=&auction=false&x=71&y=12

58 properties for sale found £200-£250k

263 properties for sale found all prices

Can't wait to see the Spring rush begin which should be about now given that March has arrived.

So is the agency shutting altogether or just scaling back? local or national chain?

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If he is anything like the person you describe then maybe setting up his own Estate Agency business is the way forward and he might make a success of it. Reminds me of the time that my dad got laid off as MD from a manufacturing business in the eighties, the business was faltering, the son of the owner had just taken over the reigns giving my dad his P45 and gleefully showed him the door. Not long after it went to the administrators was bought up by a Korean company who reappointed my dad and his first task was to tell the jumped up little g1t to clear his desk.

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The EA managed to talk down the end of the 2-house chain. They dropped from 215k to 200k giving my vendor a strait swap. The other property probably peaked at about £275k so I am getting the better discount.

TBH I am not holding my breath as my vendor is apprently "wobbling."

Congratulations! If you can find a good house at a decent price and can afford it then why not?

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So is the agency shutting altogether or just scaling back? local or national chain?

local chain of 2. Scaling back due to low transaction levels is my best guess.

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My best guess: 50% drop in transaction levels. Thay said, the number of new listings (5 mi radius of my PC) coming on in the last 14 days is huge:

Can't wait to see the Spring rush begin which should be about now given that March has arrived.

10% of all properties listed in my area are new in the last two weeks. How does that compare with others?

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I suppose your chum was "just following orders" then when ramping property to mugs and indebting the nation a few years back.

No - I rather suspect what he was doing was his job...

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My EA just rang me last night to "put his cards on the table." He has been made redundant which is a sad thing as he has been one of the most forthright HPI-cynical people I have met recently. I think he is glad to be getting out of the PONZI but will find it difficult finding other work.

I am waiting to hear on my final offer and he is selling both houses in my short chain so he will make one final commission before the dole. Pity--as I hate to see "one of us" out of work.

The house market is crashing and the VIs are hyping their heads off. The reality is EA redundancies, transaction levels at recent record lows and mortgage activity still half what it was.

I don't think it is. Not from where I'm sitting at any rate. Like I said, the only thing that will, or could, crash the market is lots of forced sales and that's not happening. If people don't need to sell then they won't. Not saying there won't be a crash but it's not looking likely. Interest rates are very low. I think someone on here predicted 3 rate rises this year. How big is each rise likely to be - not very, so rates will still be low at the end of the year meaning people won't be pushed much more than they are at present.

I'm not financial or economic expert but I can't see how any crash is going to happen this year.

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I don't think it is. Not from where I'm sitting at any rate. Like I said, the only thing that will, or could, crash the market is lots of forced sales and that's not happening. If people don't need to sell then they won't. Not saying there won't be a crash but it's not looking likely. Interest rates are very low. I think someone on here predicted 3 rate rises this year. How big is each rise likely to be - not very, so rates will still be low at the end of the year meaning people won't be pushed much more than they are at present.

I'm not financial or economic expert but I can't see how any crash is going to happen this year.

I agree--jobs are the key--no job = forced sale.

If our economy is showing record growth (todays manufacturing numbers) the private sector may pick up the slack and I will be hoping my transaction goes through.

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It's amazed me that my small town (population 10,000 plus villages around the area) still apparently sustains 7 estate agents. I know some of them are part of a wider operation either letting property, auctioning agricultural stuff and animals etc, but the high street offices seem moribund even on a Saturday.

I can only assume they have been smart in the good times, stashed away money for a rainy day and have a system of using lots of casual (as in non permanent) staff who can be used when needed without being a large overhead.

Prices are drifting and some have dropped significantly after a long time on the market but I wonder if there being a lot of EAs holds back hpc as there is more competition for instructions and no-one is yet prepared to blink.

Y

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I agree--jobs are the key--no job = forced sale.

If our economy is showing record growth (todays manufacturing numbers) the private sector may pick up the slack and I will be hoping my transaction goes through.

er, no it doesnt...SMI to the rescue.

People always need to move...the price will be determined by these, and the price people CAN then pay is down to lending....which is down.

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I agree--jobs are the key--no job = forced sale.

If our economy is showing record growth (todays manufacturing numbers) the private sector may pick up the slack and I will be hoping my transaction goes through.

Thsi si true to an extent but has to be qualified a bit, I think though. Even an increasing rate of job losses (if it comes to pass) won't have an immediate, strong effect on the housing market. Lots of people will have some form of loss of income insurance which will at least cover the interest on their payments; they will have redundancy payments; many people are in a two income household which will make it easier to pick up the slack if one looses a job; the statutory mortgage relief scheme (don't know the details of it) will help a bit; Mortgagees don't want to possess and sell peoples houses - they aren't geared up for it and lots of forced sales will reduce the price they get for them. A lot of case-law on possession and sale came out of the early '90's crash making it a more difficult and potentially costly exercise. Mortgagees and their insurers won't be overly keen on testing the limits of the law yet again.

I think it was probably a lot easier for the housing market to crash in previous eras. In the days where large areas were supported by one industry, sometimes one company, a downturn in the industry concerned would put a whole community out of work. If a pit or shipyard closed then tens of thousands of people could be out of work overnight and a community could essentially die and never recover. That's far less likely to happen these days as those situations don't really exist any more.

Realistically, it looks as though it will probably take nothing short of massive numbers of job losses and for people to be out of work for a quite a long time to have much effect on the housing market. A bit of a wild guess based on not a grwat deal but I'd guess that it would take a dole qeue three or four million long over a period of at least two or three years to have a severe effect on house prices.

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It's amazed me that my small town (population 10,000 plus villages around the area) still apparently sustains 7 estate agents. I know some of them are part of a wider operation either letting property, auctioning agricultural stuff and animals etc, but the high street offices seem moribund even on a Saturday.

I can only assume they have been smart in the good times, stashed away money for a rainy day and have a system of using lots of casual (as in non permanent) staff who can be used when needed without being a large overhead.

Prices are drifting and some have dropped significantly after a long time on the market but I wonder if there being a lot of EAs holds back hpc as there is more competition for instructions and no-one is yet prepared to blink.

Y

Asking prices are essebtilly irrelevant though. It's what sales actually complete for that matters. You can put a 10 bed country pile on the market with an asking price of offers over a quid but if you aren't prepared to less then 5 million then you might not sell it. Low asking prices are very often a teaser to get people through the door in the hope that two or more of them will start fighting over it. You aren't bound by it in anyway so you may as well try it.

Bottom line - if people don't need to sell then they won't and there's no way anyone can make them unless they don't pay the mortgage.

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er, no it doesnt...SMI to the rescue.

People always need to move...the price will be determined by these, and the price people CAN then pay is down to lending....which is down.

True but only to a certain extent. Many people will simply rent out their existing house and rent somewhere else if they can't sell or can't get what they want for their house. In reality few peole actually need to sell. The only ones who are actually forced to sell are those who fail to pay their mortgage. Okay, people who've inherited granny's house usualy need to sell because they can't aford to keep it but even then lots of peopel will hang on for quite a while until they get somewhere near their price. There aren't enough people who need to sell to affect the market enough to crash it - not by a very long way.

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My best guess: 50% drop in transaction levels. Thay said, the number of new listings (5 mi radius of my PC) coming on in the last 14 days is huge:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchType=SALE&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE%5E1712402&insId=1&radius=5.0&displayPropertyType=&minBedrooms=&maxBedrooms=&minPrice=200000&maxPrice=250000&retirement=&partBuyPartRent=&maxDaysSinceAdded=&_includeSSTC=on&sortByPriceDescending=&primaryDisplayPropertyType=&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=&oldDisplayPropertyType=&oldPrimaryDisplayPropertyType=&newHome=&auction=false&x=71&y=12

58 properties for sale found £200-£250k

263 properties for sale found all prices

Can't wait to see the Spring rush begin which should be about now given that March has arrived.

In 1 or 2 weeks Rightmove should include February numbers in their charts showing the number of properties for sale / postcode. :)

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True but only to a certain extent. Many people will simply rent out their existing house and rent somewhere else if they can't sell or can't get what they want for their house. In reality few peole actually need to sell. The only ones who are actually forced to sell are those who fail to pay their mortgage. Okay, people who've inherited granny's house usualy need to sell because they can't aford to keep it but even then lots of peopel will hang on for quite a while until they get somewhere near their price. There aren't enough people who need to sell to affect the market enough to crash it - not by a very long way.

what, you mean they will have two mortgages?

with lending getting strict...this will become a much harder option...specially as the bank is secured now on TWO risky securities.

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True but only to a certain extent. Many people will simply rent out their existing house and rent somewhere else if they can't sell or can't get what they want for their house. In reality few peole actually need to sell. The only ones who are actually forced to sell are those who fail to pay their mortgage. Okay, people who've inherited granny's house usualy need to sell because they can't aford to keep it but even then lots of peopel will hang on for quite a while until they get somewhere near their price. There aren't enough people who need to sell to affect the market enough to crash it - not by a very long way.

omg

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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