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Mortgage Approvals Up

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Ray Boulger on BBC News now :rolleyes:.

What a ****!

So mortgage approvals up, net lending up, M4 up, manufacturing booming!

Time for interest rates to go up. I'm still confident I'm my prediction last year of Q1 2011 rise.

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LONDON (
Reuters
) - Mortgage approvals picked up more than expected in January and mortgage lending rose to its highest in almost a year, Bank of England figures showed on Tuesday.
However, consumer credit contracted at its fastest pace in over a year and money supply growth remained weak, suggesting overall credit conditions remained far from normal at a time of economic uncertainty.
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 45,723 in January, up from 42,719 in December, a month that had been impacted by the country's harshest cold snap in one hundred years. Analysts had forecast a reading of 43,000.
The figures tally with a survey from mortgage lender Nationwide on Tuesday which showed house prices rose unexpectedly in February.
However mortgage approvals are still running at only half their long-run average and few expect the housing market to gather pace in the coming months.
There was a
333 million pound contraction in consumer credit
, suggesting Britons are keen to pay down debt at a time of public spending cuts and tax rises.
M4 money supply grew by 0.8 percent on the month but contracted 1.7 percent on the year, the fastest annual contraction since the series began in 1983.

Higher rates seen to be on the way therefore remortgage now.

Consumer credit drying up which means a spending spree is not eveident--and that included moving up in the housing market or FTBs getting on the "ladder".

Not much can happen until job losses pick up.

Edited by Realistbear

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Am I the only person around here thinking that the crash just ain't gonna happen? :(

It's Over!

Mortgage lending bounced back in January

Mortgage lending bounced back during January as the property market recovered some of the ground it lost due to the severe winter weather in December, figures showed today.

Net lending, which strips out redemptions and repayments, rose to £1.8 billion, its highest level for a year, and a significant turnaround from the previous month, when it had contracted by £268 million, according to the Bank of England.

There was also a 7% rise in the number of mortgages approved for house purchase, with these increasing to 45,723.

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LONDON (
Reuters
) - Mortgage approvals picked up more than expected in January and mortgage lending rose to its highest in almost a year, Bank of England figures showed on Tuesday.
However, consumer credit contracted at its fastest pace in over a year and money supply growth remained weak, suggesting overall credit conditions remained far from normal at a time of economic uncertainty.
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 45,723 in January, up from 42,719 in December, a month that had been impacted by the country's harshest cold snap in one hundred years. Analysts had forecast a reading of 43,000.
The figures tally with a survey from mortgage lender Nationwide on Tuesday which showed house prices rose unexpectedly in February.
However mortgage approvals are still running at only half their long-run average and few expect the housing market to gather pace in the coming months.
There was a
333 million pound contraction in consumer credit
, suggesting Britons are keen to pay down debt at a time of public spending cuts and tax rises.
M4 money supply grew by 0.8 percent on the month but contracted 1.7 percent on the year, the fastest annual contraction since the series began in 1983.

Higher rates seen to be on the way therefore remortgage now.

Consumer credit drying up which means a spending spree is not eveident--and that included moving up in the housing market or FTBs getting on the "ladder".

Not much can happen until job losses pick up.

From the BoE data release:

http://www.bankofeng...individuals.pdf

Average amount loaned for HP in Dec2010 £138,120

Average amount loaned for HP in Jan2010 £135,600

i.e. down 1.8% in Jan

6month average £141,370

Possible explanations:

a ) LTV decreasing

b ) Price paid decreasing

c ) both the above

However those are all seasonally adjusted figures looking a the the NSA figure (buried very deep in a spreadsheet)

Average amount loaned for HP in Dec2010 £139,540

Average amount loaned for HP in Jan2010 £130,520

i.e. down 6.9% in Jan

6month average £137,670

Does this look like "treading water"?

Edited by koala_bear

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from the FSA...for it is they who have the actual figures

Key statistics for Q3 2010 are as follows1:

  • The total value of outstanding loans is £1,220bn, an increase of less than 1% on last quarter.
  • New advances in the quarter totalled £41bn, 12% higher than in Q2 but much the same as the amount advanced in Q3 2009.
  • New commitments totalled £38bn, 6% down on the previous quarter but again in line with Q3 last year.
  • In Q3, lending for house purchase accounted for 64% of new advances, the highest percentage in the series, and 61% of new commitments.
  • The proportion of new lending done at an LTV of more than 90% accounted for just over 2% of new advances for the second successive quarter.
  • New lending with a combination of high LTVs and high income multiples continues to account for just over 1% of new lending as it did in Q2.
  • The proportion of loans to borrowers with an impaired credit history increased slightly this quarter to 0.44%.
  • The number of new arrears cases has fallen in each of the last seven quarters and was down to 36,600 in Q3 (-2%).
  • The total number of accounts in arrears has also continued to fall, each quarter over the past year, decreasing by 2% in Q3 to 346,000.
  • Consequently, the proportion of the residential loan book that is in arrears, and hence not fully performing, also fell and now stands at 2.97%.
  • The number of new possessions in the quarter continued to decline, decreasing by 8% to 9,145, the lowest figure since the end of 2007.
  • Arrears totalling £44m on 16,184 accounts were capitalised in Q3.

look at the non performers....wipes out all lending profits for banks with a low SVR....no wonder that they want you to buy 5% fixes.

wonder what Q4 will report?

Edited by Bloo Loo

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Am I the only person around here thinking that the crash just ain't gonna happen? :(

Unfortunately you are not alone in thinking that.

Getting tired of paying the Landlords mortgage when I could be paying my own to be honest, but the invitation to step into the lions mouth and buy doesn't look very appealing either.

My money is on another meltdown when all these so called recoveries are declared void, maybe at that point things will start getting sorted out properly instead of the can being constantly kicked down the road.

Edited by MrFlibble

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Unfortunately you are not alone in thinking that.

Getting tired of paying the Landlords mortgage when I could be paying my own to be honest, but the invitation to step into the lions mouth and buy doesn't look very appealing either.

My money is on another meltdown when all these so called recoveries are declared void, maybe at that point things will start getting sorted out properly instead of the can being constantly kicked down the road.

But you're not paying the landlord's mortgage, you're paying for a roof over your head. This can be done in three ways.....

1, You pay rent to a landlord.

2, You pay interest to a lender.

3, You buy a house with cash and lose the income you would otherwise get from the money.

In the present situation, I am far happier not having my money tied up in a depreciating, illiquid, asset.

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Unfortunately you are not alone in thinking that.

Getting tired of paying the Landlords mortgage when I could be paying my own to be honest,

agree with BB - this is a baseless assertion

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No, but I would think you are in a minority.

Not necessarily. I think (perhaps away from HPC) many if not most people think it already happened. Maybe areas of high public employment may fare worse and interest rates may spike but broadly that may be it. I hope not though.

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Not necessarily. I think (perhaps away from HPC) many if not most people think it already happened. Maybe areas of high public employment may fare worse and interest rates may spike but broadly that may be it. I hope not though.

If you read the question, you will see that he said "around here". I took that to mean this forum and answered accordingly :).

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But you're not paying the landlord's mortgage, you're paying for a roof over your head. This can be done in three ways.....

1, You pay rent to a landlord.

2, You pay interest to a lender.

3, You buy a house with cash and lose the income you would otherwise get from the money.

In the present situation, I am far happier not having my money tied up in a depreciating, illiquid, asset.

I understand what you are saying, just starting to get cheesed off with the pace of this crash, it's not cutting it for me to be honest.

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but I'm not suprised there more mortgages approved in January as people decide to buy now and lock in a low fixed rate before base rates rise.

But this is not actually increased demand, just people bringing forward purchases as they did in December 09.

So just relax everyone, stop wobbling and keep the faith, it is happening.

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but I'm not suprised there more mortgages approved in January as people decide to buy now and lock in a low fixed rate before base rates rise.

But this is not actually increased demand, just people bringing forward purchases as they did in December 09.

So just relax everyone, stop wobbling and keep the faith, it is happening.

Doing just that as as a friend of the family ( bank manager for one of the state owned bank`s) has just sold a very upmarket house and has gone STR and is renting in the same street as the house just sold :o

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Doing just that as as a friend of the family ( bank manager for one of the state owned bank`s) has just sold a very upmarket house and has gone STR and is renting in the same street as the house just sold :o

He obviously knows, left it a bit late though.

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January’s mortgage approvals number wasn’t particularly good – it’s more that December’s figure was surprisingly poor (and if you recall I questioned the December number because it was out of kilter with the BBA’s reported figure).

We’re still in a shallow downtrend in approvals despite January’s month-on-month rise.

approvals0111.gif

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January’s mortgage approvals number wasn’t particularly good – it’s more that December’s figure was surprisingly poor (and if you recall I questioned the December number because it was out of kilter with the BBA’s reported figure).

We’re still in a shallow downtrend in approvals despite January’s month-on-month rise.

approvals0111.gif

Thanks FT. excellent information as usual.

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January's mortgage approvals number wasn't particularly good – it's more that December's figure was surprisingly poor (and if you recall I questioned the December number because it was out of kilter with the BBA's reported figure).

We're still in a shallow downtrend in approvals despite January's month-on-month rise.

approvals0111.gif

From the BoE data release:

http://www.bankofeng...individuals.pdf

There is a very big difference between Seasonally Adjusted and Non Seasonally Adjusted - they need to start asking if all of the adjustment is justified.

Calculation based on the Seasonally adjusted:

Average amount loaned for HP in Dec2010 £138,120

Average amount loaned for HP in Jan2010 £135,600

i.e. down 1.8% in Jan

6month average £141,370

However those are all seasonally adjusted figures looking at the the NSA figures (buried very deep in a spreadsheet)

Average amount loaned for HP in Dec2010 £139,540

Average amount loaned for HP in Jan2010 £130,520

i.e. down 6.9% in Jan

6month average £137,670

Does this look like HP are "treading water"?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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