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Dollar’S Haven Status Hangs In The Balance

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d73c9258-435e-11e0-8f0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1FKoTbq00

Long seen as a place of safety in times of turmoil, the dollar may be losing its haven appeal.

Soaring oil prices, driven by upheaval in the Middle East, falling equities and elevated volatility have all made investors uneasy. A flight to the dollar usually accompanies increased risk aversion.

“It seems the dollar’s haven status has vanished,” says Steve Barrow at Standard Bank. “And, even for long-term dollar bears like ourselves, this is a worry.”

....

While the yen and Swiss franc have been driven higher by haven appeal, the euro and the pound have at the same time been supported by increasing expectations that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will deliver interest rate rises before the US Federal Reserve.

And John Hardy, FX strategist at Saxo Bank, says the dollar is also suffering because of the Fed’s lack of credibility on inflation, given the risks of a continued rise in oil prices.

“The market assesses that the Fed will ignore inflation and launch a third round of quantitative easing, as it prefers to concentrate on its growth mandate, while the rest of the world’s inflation-focused central banks hike rates to deal with the inflation threat,” says Mr Hardy.

more at the link....

Feel free to add pictures of nukes.

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I doubt the Germans will try that again. The last time they found themselves in financial difficulty Hitler decided to take over Europe. I can see Vlad the Impaler repeating history though as the last time they faced financial collapse was when they decided to launch a full scale war against the west in WW1. Japan are unlikely to strike either as they will not repeat history and invade China, Burma, Korea to try to regain economic power in their sphere of influence region. The US are isolationist when it comes to dealing with economic depressions and it is very hard to get them moving unless they come under attack first.

Perhaps you can hope for an attack by Armourdinnerjacket against the US as they will certainly remove the threat of another US invasion of Europe?

Edited by Realistbear

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I doubt the Germans will try that again. The last time they found themselves in financial difficulty Hitler decided to take over Europe. I can see Vlad the Impaler repeating history though as the last time they faced financial collapse was when they decided to launch a full scale war against the west in WW1. Japan are unlikely to strike either as they will not repeat history and invade China, Burma, Korea to try to regain economic power in their sphere of influence region. The US are isolationist when it comes to dealing with economic depressions and it is very hard to get them moving unless they come under attack first.

Perhaps you can hope for an attack by Armourdinnerjacket against the US as they will certainly remove the threat of another US invasion of Europe?

:blink::unsure::huh:

I'm going to back away slowly, not making eye contact.

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I love seeing these sort of articles in the mainstream press as they indicate that a market bottom is just about in place. Somewhat surprisingly the pound has made a new yearly high against the dollar this morning, If I had a large amount of pounds then I would be looking to move them to dollars at around 1.65, with a possibility of it reaching 1.67.

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I love seeing these sort of articles in the mainstream press as they indicate that a market bottom is just about in place. Somewhat surprisingly the pound has made a new yearly high against the dollar this morning, If I had a large amount of pounds then I would be looking to move them to dollars at around 1.65, with a possibility of it reaching 1.67.

The rise in HPI is driving £ this morning. We stand or fall on the direction of house prices. NW are under strict orders not to publish anything but "good" news.

This country is sick to its core.

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I saw an interesting blog post on this subject yesterday morning.

The US Dollar is surprisingly weak

You might at such a time be expecting a strong US dollar as it too often has a safe haven status. Indeed there seem to be some signs of US assets being attractive as US Treasury Bond prices have risen and yields dropped. For example the ten-year yield is now 3.40% after recently surging towards 3.6%. However the trade-weighted US dollar index is at 76.96 which is not only lower than when I looked at it last week but also not that far off its 52 week low which was 75.63 back in April 2010. If a lower US dollar is one of the policy objectives of the US government and central bank then the plan is currently working. As a currency has to fall against another currency which accordingly has to rise the rest of the world may not be quite so enthusiastic!

However the much maligned Euro is putting in a better performance and shrugging off the fact that of the main industrialised countries it is Italy that looks as if it will be adversely affected the most by the unrest in Libya. A year ago it was at 1.36 and today it is above 1.38. It sounds very stable put like that does it not? We all know that the reality was rather different but it is intriguing that the net effect on a year ago is a rise heading towards 2%!

http://t.co/gVmqvsi

It also had some interesting views on the Swiss Franc and in particular the Japanese Yen

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Good idea. Your slavish anti-US post are becoming obsessive compulsive.

What?

Did you forget your meds today or something?

:unsure:

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Ooh, this is exciting just testing the 1.63 level again. It looks like today will either see a large fall or a large rise, 200 pips or more, for GBPUSD. My money is on the former.

The market driver for Sterling is IR and house prices. Both are perceived to be rising. But the problem with those two fundamentals is easy to see. Traders are not that stupid and will ride the pound up on bad fundamentals and sell just before the majority wake up and see the Elephant stirring--which it isn't for now as HPI is healthy, no real job losses (yet) and a still healthy balance of payments (relatively speaking, of course).

UK is #1 for now and up against all the majors:

GBP to USD 1.6307 +0.0041

GBP to EUR 1.1793 +0.0014

GBP to JPY 133.9359 +0.9320

GBP to TRY 2.6208 +0.0209

GBP to THB 49.8907 +0.1474

Edited by Realistbear

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The market driver for Sterling is IR and house prices. Both are perceived to be rising. But the problem with those two fundamentals is easy to see. Traders are not that stupid and will ride the pound up on bad fundamentals and sell just before the majority wake up and see the Elephant stirring--which it isn't for now as HPI is healthy, no real job losses (yet) and a still healthy balance of payments (relatively speaking, of course).

UK is #1 for now and up against all the majors:

GBP to USD 1.6307 +0.0041

GBP to EUR 1.1793 +0.0014

GBP to JPY 133.9359 +0.9320

GBP to TRY 2.6208 +0.0209

GBP to THB 49.8907 +0.1474

You think all the analysts who provide info for these 'currency' trades see UK house prices as 'rising' ? Who knows but I cannot see it myself.

Anyone who looks into it at even a basic level will realise UK house prices are still hugely overpriced and in general terms - falling right now.

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:lol:

Expect Jim rogers along any minute to tell us all to sell sterling at 1.36

That article wasn't worth the effort of the cut and paste.

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UK is #1 for now and up against all the majors:

GBP to USD 1.6307 +0.0041

GBP to EUR 1.1793 +0.0014

Yes , completely convincing numbers there RB :lol:

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Phew, it looks like the dollar has regained it`s safe haven status, I was getting a bit nervous yesterday morning that we were heading into a hyperinflationary holocaust. Looks like a nice reversal pattern forming here for GBPUSD.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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