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Kyoto

Nationwide Hpi February

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“House prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in

February, leaving prices 0.1% lower than the same month a

year ago. The overall picture is still one of a market treading

water. Indeed, the three month on three month measure of

house prices, a better measure of the underlying trend, was

basically flat in February at -0.1%.

“This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Housing

market trends are closely linked to wider economic prospects.

Given that the recovery hit a soft patch at the turn of the year

and looks set to remain sluggish in the year ahead, the

property market is likely to follow suit, with relatively low

transaction levels and prices moving sideways or modestly

lower through 2011.

“Demand for homes has levelled out, supported by historically

low interest rates and some stabilisation in the labour market.

The continued uncertain outlook for the economy is likely to

keep many potential buyers on the sidelines for some time yet.

“Nevertheless, there are few signs of a glut of unsold homes

building up on the market. Sellers remain reluctant to accept

lower prices to secure a sale. In fact there are tentative signs

that the volume of homes coming onto the market is slowing.”

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf

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Boring.

Is it possible to find out how many FTB mortgages were granted by Nationwide in Feb? My guess - not many.

I think prices will remain stagnant for the next few months - sellers not chasing the market down yet, but they will when the Spring bounce fails to happen.

It's a buyers market, but the buyers have no money.

Edited by Constable

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March and April last year showed some fairly large rises of 1.0% and 0.7% so the yoy should drop back again over the next few months. (assuming no more big rises!) then after May the falls began last year so we need the MoM to pick up to keep the yoy in negative.

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Do they have competitive mortgage rates ? I know Halifax only had high fixed rates and most stuff at 25% ltv effectively missing a chunk of the market.

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The commentary Kyoto posted reads that they're talking the market down this time, saying that the negative 3m figure is a better guide.

Well that makes a change - who'd a thunk it? :huh:

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The figure announced for February is about £500 lower than the initially announced figure for January. So would have been about a 0.3% fall.

But they've distributed this fall over the previous 4 months by way of revisions, and also used their seasonal adjustment. Despite revisions, there was actually an unadjusted month-on-month fall.

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+ 0.3% ? :angry: <_<

Imaginary VI figures

I'm constantly researching property 'values' (when to buy again, NOT now), the only direction of values that I see are DOWN

Total Nationwide untruths.

Remember that Nationwide has a southerly and middle class bias and represents the "quality" end of the market, i.e. John Lewis type consumers who have done very well out of the financial crisis so far.

It's going to take time people. Keep the faith.

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:(

Kyoto, I think it would be v. useful for readers if you could add the non-seasonally adjusted figures to your OP, in an edit.

From the Nationwide report:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf

Jan-11* -0.1 -0.7 -1.4 161,211

Feb-11 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 161,183

The non-seasonally adjusted figures show a £28 drop MoM - so prices are static MoM, not rising.

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25zgkyu.jpg

Amazing that they can put an exponential trendline on one and a flat trendline on a basically identical graph. Shows how ridiculous the exponential one is.

Edit: can't we have a house price graph on the front page with a 3.5x average wage line added. Rather than the exponential crockoshite that we have now...?

Edited by neon tetra

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Before anyone gets too despondant, I suggest they look at the archived 2007/2008 figures to see how long the first part of the crash took to build up momentum. If we don't see any decent falls over the summer, then's the time to be concerned.

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The figure announced for February is about £500 lower than the initially announced figure for January. So would have been about a 0.3% fall.

But they've distributed this fall over the previous 4 months by way of revisions, and also used their seasonal adjustment. Despite revisions, there was actually an unadjusted month-on-month fall.

Mmm, mmm, what's cooking?

The books?

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:(

take it easy. it is actually OK ... I can see a clear trend ....

Feb-10 -1.1 1.8 9.2 161,320

Mar-10 0.7 1.4 9.0 164,519

Apr-10 1.0 0.8 10.5 167,802

May-10 0.4 1.2 9.8 169,162

Jun-10 0.0 1.3 8.7 170,111

Jul-10 -0.5 1.1 6.6 169,347

Aug-10 -0.9 -0.1 3.9 166,507

Sep-10 0.0 -1.0 3.1 166,757

Oct-10* -0.7 -1.5 1.4 164,279

Nov-10* -0.3 -1.3 0.2 163,133

Dec-10* 0.3 -1.1 0.1 162,249

Jan-11* -0.1 -0.7 -1.4 161,211

Feb-11 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 161,183

so in last 8 months I saved about £9k by wating .... better than nothing .. :)

Edited by Damik

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These figures demonstrate that government policy is working.

ZIRP + QE + SMI + HB + encouraging lenders not to repossess -----------> Static nominal prices + falling real prices

No HPC just a controlled deflation of real prices.

Savers, pensioners on fixed incomes, middle income taxpayers are screwed to bail out the profligate and the elite.

Anyone banking on a further nominal price corrections is likely to be disappointed.

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Oh no Prices up 0.3%. I must rush out and buy right now before houses become to expensive.

Should have been what I was thinking 10 years ago.

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FTBers' market share is falling. This distorts all indexes that are not weighed by property types.

Don't worry I'm not losing faith. I was just hoping for a nice juicy fall! It is coming up to spring though so maybe we will have a couple of small rises in the next month or two, as I said earlier March and April were quite strong months last year. But TBH even flat prices is good for me as my deposit is increasing much faster than prices are.

Also I can see newly listed properties that I like actually slightly cheaper too.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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