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The change in GDP in the fourth quarter was clearly affected by the extremely bad weather in

December 2010. The disruption caused by the bad weather is likely to have contributed

approximately 0.5 percentage points of the 0.6% decline, that is, if there had been no disruption,

GDP would be showing a slight fall. In other words, the downward revision to GDP growth in the

final quarter of 2010 is thought to result from a small reduction in the estimate of underlying

growth. ONS has revisited the work carried out at the preliminary stage in the light of more

complete data and our estimate of the effect of the weather is unchanged.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/oie0211.pdf

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The main sources of downward revision were business and financial services, accounting for around

a third of the economy's output, which contracted in all three months of the quarter. Retail sales

were also weaker than previously estimated, but the output of hotels and restaurants was revised up

slightly.

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Net trade growth also contributed to the decline in the final quarter of last year, as imports grew more strongly than exports.

In the MPC minutes they admitted that they don't really understand why import growth is so high considering sterling has fallen so much.

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FAIL!

The global economy as a whole is growing at between 4 and 5% a year right now. The UK economy should be growing now with the huge pickup in activity in the developing world. I am sure both France and Germany are seeing rising production as orders come in from around the world.

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In the MPC minutes they admitted that they don't really understand why import growth is so high considering sterling has fallen so much.

I had naively assumed that it's because we have a structural trade deficit. If sterling falls, we have no choice but to pay more for our imports, because we "need" them. As someone said recently, the fact that sterling has fallen, doesn't mean that toy factories start popping up in the Midlands.

But I assume that there must be more to it than that if the MPC are puzzled,

Peter.

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next Q's figures are the ones to watch out for. if they are negative, we're 'back' in the recession we never really left without pumping the economy with wads of magic money.

Perhaps the MPC will then accept that low interest rates cannot pull us out of this one and will want to get it over and done with, fast, whacking them up to the heady highs of 0.75% :lol:

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FAIL!

The global economy as a whole is growing at between 4 and 5% a year right now. The UK economy should be growing now with the huge pickup in activity in the developing world. I am sure both France and Germany are seeing rising production as orders come in from around the world.

+1. I predict both Greece and Ireland's economies to be growing more than the UK by 2013.

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FAIL!

The global economy as a whole is growing at between 4 and 5% a year right now. The UK economy should be growing now with the huge pickup in activity in the developing world. I am sure both France and Germany are seeing rising production as orders come in from around the world.

how are you working that out?....is it the 100 trillion they (Davos) proposed to create in the next 10 years?.....that would give you your figuers with no wealth increase at all I would wager.

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next Q's figures are the ones to watch out for. if they are negative, we're 'back' in the recession we never really left without pumping the economy with wads of magic money.

Perhaps the MPC will then accept that low interest rates cannot pull us out of this one and will want to get it over and done with, fast, whacking them up to the heady highs of 0.75% :lol:

Nah - next month it will be blamed in Libya, and the rising price of oil.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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