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Oil is up 5% on the day, almost past $120 a barrel.

If it stays at this level, we could well see a litre of petrol costing nearly £1.50 in a month or so :angry: :angry:

What do we think, short term spike or will it continue rising into the Spring? I guess a lot depends on Libya and the Suez canel.

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I get the feeling we are lurching from one crisis to another with ZERO good news in sight. The funny thing about this feeling is I am actually ok and so if the GF but at the same time I am still stocking up on ammo and beans ;)

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Long term, oil prices will rise and rise as we use up a finite resource at an ever increasing rate. However the current rise is probably a spike and the price of a barrel will probably fall again before long before going up again. Within a year or two we'll probably see $200 per barrel.

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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I get the feeling we are lurching from one crisis to another with ZERO good news in sight. The funny thing about this feeling is I am actually ok and so if the GF but at the same time I am still stocking up on ammo and beans ;)

The laws of unintended consequences are interacting very nicely at the minute.

It's clear there was never a clear plan just that inflation would be a silent default on the debts. What the elite forgot about was the people at the bottom might be a bit miffed by it all.

This whole situation could get out of hand very quickly.

I read the other day that the Saudi's have bribed the poor in their own country in an attempt to stop a revolt.

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I get the feeling we are lurching from one crisis to another with ZERO good news in sight. The funny thing about this feeling is I am actually ok and so if the GF but at the same time I am still stocking up on ammo and beans ;)

I'd say the removal of several long standing dictators is very good news.

Long term, oil prices will rise and rise as we use up a finite resource at an ever increasing rate. However the current rise is probably a spike and the price of a barrel will probably fall again before long before going up again. Within a year or two we'll probably see $200 per barrel.

Prices will keep spiking as demand/economic activity is forced down to the level of oil production. Our economies will shirk to the amount of affordable oil we can produce. The USA's economy will be far more damaged than the EU's incidentally. World power is shifting.

Edited by Peter Hun

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Prices will keep spiking as demand/economic activity is forced down to the level of oil production. Our economies will shirk to the amount of affordable oil we can produce. The USA's economy will be far more damaged than the EU's incidentally. World power is shifting.

Affordable oil, or alternatives.

As I mentioned in another thread, the state of play with oil alternatives is that cereal-based biofuels currently cost the equivalent of oil at around $140 a barrel, and algal ones of oil at $170-180. And that's with both technologies being essentially experimental cottage industries. If oil goes into the upper end of the $100-200 range and stays there, it will become viable to develop alternatives on a significant scale. And who does that, how quickly and how efficiently will determine how the balance of world power really changes, and where to.

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The laws of unintended consequences are interacting very nicely at the minute.

It's clear there was never a clear plan just that inflation would be a silent default on the debts. What the elite forgot about was the people at the bottom might be a bit miffed by it all.

This whole situation could get out of hand very quickly.

I read the other day that the Saudi's have bribed the poor in their own country in an attempt to stop a revolt.

Yep, they have increased unemployment benefits, shortened housing waiting list etc.

This sh*t is definitely beginning to hit the fan.

3 day week, lights out at 10pm. I remember, I was there in 70s. This could well happen again in the next few months if this keeps up.

It should keep up.

I weep when I see Lybian men and women bravely taking on this b*stard tyrannical psychopath after decades of supression. A psychopath that successive Western governments have propped up along with many other puppet regimes in that part of the world. I can only hope that our own people, who have had centuries of taming, will be inspired and finally rise up against our own corrupt elites.

I can hope.

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Long term, oil prices will rise and rise as we use up a finite resource at an ever increasing rate. However the current rise is probably a spike and the price of a barrel will probably fall again before long before going up again. Within a year or two we'll probably see $200 per barrel.

I had a brief chat with an invetment banker at GS yesterday and he was talking about it hitting $220 in the not too distant future :o

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The laws of unintended consequences are interacting very nicely at the minute.

It's clear there was never a clear plan just that inflation would be a silent default on the debts. What the elite forgot about was the people at the bottom might be a bit miffed by it all.

This whole situation could get out of hand very quickly.

I read the other day that the Saudi's have bribed the poor in their own country in an attempt to stop a revolt.

Preemptive - I havent seen any sign of unrest so far and I am slap bang in the middle of Shia Country. Its not the first time on the return of King he has showered his subjects with gifts.

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[/b]

Preemptive - I havent seen any sign of unrest so far and I am slap bang in the middle of Shia Country. Its not the first time on the return of King he has showered his subjects with gifts.

You are seriously suggesting that the timing is entirely conincidental?

Edited by tallguy

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3 day week, lights out at 10pm. I remember, I was there in 70s. This could well happen again in the next few months if this keeps up.

Umm, wasn't that more to do with the NUM than the oil prices? I can see the economy grinding to a halt, but how are we dependant on oil for electric power?

Edited by FaFa!

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paid about 137p/litre (premium petrol) a couple of days ago. Fortunately my car does not see much use anymore. Many must be hurting.

Thanks, Merv.

I put 100 litres in a GMC Yukon Denali yesterday. It would have been $15 (9.5p a litre) but the company pays. ;)

Another good reason to not come back to the UK

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Umm, wasn't that more to do with the NUM than the oil prices? I can see the economy grinding to a halt, but hwo are we dependant on oil for electric power?

It doesn't matter if we get most of our oil from Russia for instance. The price of all oil from all sources will go up on the back of what is happening in the Middle East. The reason lights went out in the 70s is because of Opec and the West being in dispute over the price. Opec lost that dispute, in the end, as they pushed Western economies into deeper recessions and subsequent demand demand destruction, in turn feeding back onto even steeper price reduction pressures.

This time is different as underlying all of this is a growing disparity between supply and demand, globally.

Edited by tallguy

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You are seriously suggesting that the timing is entirely conincidental?

I think the size of the 'bung' is indicative of the regimes nervousness but it is fairly common for a gesture like this at a big event. The return of the King after extended medical treatment abroad is a big event for Saudi's. Whilst not universal the respect for the King is very high. Unlike our Queen, Saudi's do not like jokes about their King.

Of course what would I know compared to all the armchair analysts on HPC

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Contagion to Saudi, Kuwait and Bahrain are the real issues. Protests in Riyadh - fill your car! ;)

The protests in Riyadh so far have been minor domestic issues to do do with representation / freedom of speech. None so far have been about overthrowing the authorities and this is why to a degree they are tolerated.

The King wants reform but is mindful of the conservative Wahabbis on his back. By allowing limited protest and debate he can then justify change to the Wahabbis on the basis of - well this is what the people want? As a just leader I have to listen to what the people want?

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And wasn't that something to do with inflation, caused by oil?

Yes, but the unions cannot shut down the economy as a part of demands for higher wage settlements. My understanding is this:

70s

Oil price goes up - increasing inflation - unions demand higher wages - govt refuses - unions go on strike - no coal for power stations - lights go out

Now:

Oil price goes up - increasing inflation - people bitch and moan - companies go bust - everyone sucks it up.

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I put 100 litres in a GMC Yukon Denali yesterday. It would have been $15 (9.5p a litre) but the company pays. ;)

Another good reason to not come back to the UK

Ha, now you're just showing off.. :P

Nice to see you back, I read your thread about the solar water heating with great interest when I was new to the site. Hope it's working out for you in Arabia.

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Petrol is cheap.

The total cost of the unleaded fuel at £126.9 per litre retail is 46.8p including retail margin and distribution

The fuel price itself could double overnight, but if you removed the duty and VAT it would still be less than £1/litre

Petrol-prices-060111.jpg

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Ha, now you're just showing off.. :P

Nice to see you back, I read your thread about the solar water heating with great interest when I was new to the site. Hope it's working out for you in Arabia.

Its fine. Nice weather, not too stressful work, no revolutions just yet. Moving to Dhahran in two weeks so getting away from the stinky refinery at Ras Tanura.

Might even go for a pint and bacon sandwich in Bahrain tomorrow :P

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Petrol is cheap.

The total cost of the unleaded fuel at £126.9 per litre retail is 46.8p including retail margin and distribution

The fuel price itself could double overnight, but if you removed the duty and VAT it would still be less than £1/litre

How much is the total govt revenue from petrol? Is there a situation where the govt could remove the duty and vat to keep the economy going?

Edited by FaFa!

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Yes, but the unions cannot shut down the economy as a part of demands for higher wage settlements. My understanding is this:

70s

Oil price goes up - increasing inflation - unions demand higher wages - govt refuses - unions go on strike - no coal for power stations - lights go out

Now:

Oil price goes up - increasing inflation - people bitch and moan - companies go bust - everyone sucks it up.

The truck drivers have the potential to shut down the country, the modern way of living depends completely on 'just on time' delivery networks, they could cripple the country in days even more effectively than in the last fuel protests. However, this time I expect the government and security forces have made special preparations ahead of time.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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