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House Price Crash Forum

Housing Market Is 'stuck In The Doldrums'


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Remind me exactly how long house prices have remained low for now?

It's quite simple.... house prices ALWAYS go up, so if you're house is worth the same or less than the month before, then that is "LOW" and that is a bad thing. :)

Reminds me of this...

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Can you explain how the cost of my food being more expensive makes mortgages more affordable please?

A fair point but as Albert Einstein observed all things are relative and it makes little sense to view house prices in isolation, they should be viewed relative to other prices - i.e. inflation is relevant...

Also the really crucial thing is house prices relative to income… many peoples pay does go up with inflation and all those people that have taken freezes and drops will be looking for increases at some point – I think we are storing up inflationary pressure. I have never been one for deflation – called inflation and even stagflation right when the financial crash happened… Time will tell…

If inflation does take off then the current debt on a house might look trivial in a few years time – look back to the 70’s to see what inflationary times do to house prices… However if interest rates really go up too then it might be difficult to hold onto the house if on a floating rate… trying to factor in QE makes forecasting an almost pointless exercise.

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Original asking was £325k. Two drops since then to £250k. I have gone in at £200k and the offer has been accepted. EA is working on my vendor's seller (couple going into asheltered situation) to drop from £215 to £200 so my vendor gets more or less strait swap.

The EA is surprised that my vendor will sell at £200k as the property is probably "worth" around £240 or so, even in todays nasty market. I accept it could well drop to £150-170k over the course of the next few years but I need to get settled and am happy with a nice 30-40% drop from the top this early in the game.

Sounds OK. Good luck there,

All the best,

ToW

And stick around,

but please, do try hard not to turn into a bull, now that you will be a property VI again, ok?! ;)

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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Sounds OK. Good luck there,

All the best,

ToW

And sick around,

but please, do try hard not to turn into a bull, now that you will be a property VI again, ok?! ;)

Should find out later today. The up chain vendors have a tacky semi-bungalow on for £215 and my vendor will buy for £200K which is a tiny drop compared with the discount she is agreeing to sell to us for. Its a funny deal this one and involves an estate which might explain the desire to unload to a cash buyer and get it over with.

Will keep looking in now and then--still thinking about a property in Spain but that will have to wait until a possible inheritance materialises.

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No, I don't have numbers or size data off the top of my head, sorry.

But I think that building more dwellings than there are people to live in them (as mentioned in the panorama program)

I've watched Panorama, and I am completely sure they did not say that they built "more dwellings than there are people to live in them".

That is why data is SOOO important.

and having empty 'ghost estates' all over the place would be termed 'over building' by most.

I've visited Ireland a couple of years ago. Prices were completely insane. Now prices there are just your British-usual daylight robbery. Still unaffordable by the average working person, particularly with banks not lending.

These "ghost states" (how many are there exactly BTW, numbers, data, remember?) are empty because there is still a mismatch between what people can pay, and the prices they are asking. And not because people wouldn't like to live in large modern family homes.

Wouldn't you? If they were easily affordable to you?

I'm sorry BTC, but Panorama's propaganda got you.

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I am still bearish on house prices and think that the risks are on the downside but what is bugging me is that Bdev shares are up 40% over the last quater and Wimpey is up 60%. I strongly think that builders shares shed light on the outloook for property prices in the near to mid term... Anyone got any ideas why these shares have done so well over the last three months if (as everyone on here and it would seem much of the media these days seems to think) a serious price correction is just around the corner??

Has the market got this worng ?? Can the market be wrong ??

I think builders shares started rising again last Autumn.

1. The emergency budget just showed further increases in spending.

2. FSA decided to do nothing about mortgage lending except perhaps publish some ideas maybe next year.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Haven't heard anything on here about builders' shares of late...perhaps this is why?

It would seem that everyone on here is rather quiet about the builders shares rising so strongly.... I can only see this to mean that the market at the moment does not see a houseprice crash happening soon... However the market's opinion can change pretty quickly with new information / sentiment so lets see - I for one want lower prices... but I do realise that just because you think and want something to happen does not mean that it will - especially in the short term.

Also another nagging doubt I have is that politically, if I had won the election I would want to facilitate a crash asap and blame the last lot... I think the public are getting sick of hearing how everything is labour's fault and as each day passes without a crash getting started it gets more and more politically undesirable...

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Not being able to sleep last night watched a Panorama repeat during the "signing zone" about the Irish property bubble.

There wasn't one thing in that show that couldn't be applied to the UK. Excess credit, housing mania, corrupt banks and a cosy elite of politicians, bankers and speculators running the country.

Yet the BBC would never dare make a similar programme about the UK.

Well, there are two differences - MASSIVE overbuilding in Ireland (i.e. oversupply of actual houses and not just of 'executive apartments' as there was in GB) and a currency which the government couldn't print/debase in order to support the market.

But apart from that pretty much everything else they highlighted was also applicable to the UK .. but of course you'd never see the BBC (or any mainstream UK media outlet) make a report like that about the domestic market even though it's staring them in the face. That's why you should never look to your own media for accurate coverage of your national affairs. RTE's (Irish equivalent of the BBC) coverage of the Irish disaster story has hardly been incisive, for example.

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There does seem to be a small level of bullishness in the sector but looking at Barratt's long term chart the recent share price lift doesn't seem to signify anything dramatic so far other than seasonal optimism from a very low level. Going back years it's regularly been there at the start of the year and often the early optimism hasn't matched the reality. There's nothing in the recent bounce (it hardly qualifies as a bounce, noise maybe?) to suggest any general resurgence in the housing market. They aren't exactly piling in - and the share price is still down nearly 90% since it's 2007 peak.

The housing market still has to catch up (I don't expect 90% falls though ;)) .

Edited by billybong
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Well, there are two differences - MASSIVE overbuilding in Ireland (i.e. oversupply of actual houses and not just of 'executive apartments' as there was in GB) and a currency which the government couldn't print/debase in order to support the market.

But apart from that pretty much everything else they highlighted was also applicable to the UK .. but of course you'd never see the BBC (or any mainstream UK media outlet) make a report like that about the domestic market even though it's staring them in the face. That's why you should never look to your own media for accurate coverage of your national affairs. RTE's (Irish equivalent of the BBC) coverage of the Irish disaster story has hardly been incisive, for example.

This is so true.

The 20 somethings should all be lying in the roads - bring the country to a standstill - PROTEST about the house price fraud.... :angry: :angry:

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