Realistbear Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Housing-market-stuck-doldrums-tele-986960326.html?x=0 Housing market is 'stuck in the doldrums' Myra Butterworth, 14:33, Wednesday 23 February 2011 The housing market remains ‘stuck in the doldrums’ with the number of mortgages for home owners at a two-year low. New figures show mortgage approvals for those buying a new home remained broadly unchanged in January at 28,932, the lowest number of monthly approvals since January 2009, according to the British Bankers’ Association (BBA). The number of remortgages saw a slight improvement to 26,109, up from 24,946 the previous month. David Dooks, the BBA’s statistics director, said: “We are seeing little change in the borrowing environment for households at the start of 2011. The high street banks have seen more remortgaging activity of late. The emphasis is on repayment rather than new borrowing.” Economists said the figures suggested that house prices will remain low . Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, said: “Housing market activity remains stuck in the doldrums, which seems highly likely to maintain downward pressure on prices in the early months of 2011 at least.” Paul Diggle, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: “The marginal rise in total mortgage lending in January is not particularly encouraging. Weak demand and hefty refinancing requirements will keep lending subdued for the rest of this year.” A bit of cheery news to brighten what is,, around here, a grim Wednesday afternoon. Looked at a property today and have just put in an offer! Yikes, haven't done that since 1998 when I bought my last gaff in California! And an insulting offer it was so I don't expect the vendor to say yes. Just my bit to inject some reality into asking prices--which are coming down my way by quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Economists said the figures suggested that house prices will remain low. Remind me exactly how long house prices have remained low for now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Orbison Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Economists said the figures suggested that house prices will remain low. I'm out of it all & still I get angry at the mind f*cks thrown at the British psyche. Next there will be comparisons with Chinese salary multiples to show affordable UK really is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjc Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I am still bearish on house prices and think that the risks are on the downside but what is bugging me is that Bdev shares are up 40% over the last quater and Wimpey is up 60%. I strongly think that builders shares shed light on the outloook for property prices in the near to mid term... Anyone got any ideas why these shares have done so well over the last three months if (as everyone on here and it would seem much of the media these days seems to think) a serious price correction is just around the corner?? Has the market got this worng ?? Can the market be wrong ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I am still bearish on house prices and think that the risks are on the downside but what is bugging me is that Bdev shares are up 40% over the last quater and Wimpey is up 60%. I strongly think that builders shares shed light on the outloook for property prices in the near to mid term... Anyone got any ideas why these shares have done so well over the last three months if (as everyone on here and it would seem much of the media these days seems to think) a serious price correction is just around the corner?? Has the market got this worng ?? Can the market be wrong ?? It's all just a massive sham... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monks Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Remind me exactly how long house prices have remained low for now? All part of the VI neuro-linguistic programming to make the country believe NOW is the right time to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I am still bearish on house prices and think that the risks are on the downside but what is bugging me is that Bdev shares are up 40% over the last quater and Wimpey is up 60%. I strongly think that builders shares shed light on the outloook for property prices in the near to mid term... Anyone got any ideas why these shares have done so well over the last three months if (as everyone on here and it would seem much of the media these days seems to think) a serious price correction is just around the corner?? Has the market got this worng ?? Can the market be wrong ?? A guess....people in the market know that others use those shares as belweathers for houses. house prices are the main problem for a banking system that bases its securitized assets on lending on houses. banks have a ton of free cash ( indeed they were PAID to receive it).....what better way to manipulate some sentiment then buying shares with money that cost you nothing, and keeping many thinking the bounce is around the corner? just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pauly_Boy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Remind me exactly how long house prices have remained low for now? I think he means falling, but of course he doesn't want to scare the sheeple! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I am still bearish on house prices and think that the risks are on the downside but what is bugging me is that Bdev shares are up 40% over the last quater and Wimpey is up 60%. I strongly think that builders shares shed light on the outloook for property prices in the near to mid term... Anyone got any ideas why these shares have done so well over the last three months if (as everyone on here and it would seem much of the media these days seems to think) a serious price correction is just around the corner?? Has the market got this worng ?? Can the market be wrong ?? I think this is due to the builders themselves rather than the housing Market. Many builders have change tactics and have recently built more profitable, larger homes which they can sell easier rather than lots of little units which are stuck. Most builders have announced profits for 2010 after making losses the previous years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1zard Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I think this is due to the builders themselves rather than the housing Market. Many builders have change tactics and have recently built more profitable, larger homes which they can sell easier rather than lots of little units which are stuck. Most builders have announced profits for 2010 after making losses the previous years. Not to mention the high degree of speculation that will always relate to equities. Investors & fund managers will buy practically anything if price ratios for the equities in question appear to be low, with no regard for the sector or the business the company is involved in. Speculators and sheeple buy stock so its no way an indicator of rising house prices. If anything its just more punting by the herd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I think this is due to the builders themselves rather than the housing Market. Many builders have change tactics and have recently built more profitable, larger homes which they can sell easier rather than lots of little units which are stuck. Most builders have announced profits for 2010 after making losses the previous years. surely it takes years to get estates approved by councils....are you suggesting they have fast tracked new policies through councils? many of the builders here are flogging tiny tiny places....and calling them 3 and 4 bedroom homes.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I noticed that this Myra Butterworth writes on a few different outlets (Telegraph included). Her articles are basically VI press releases with some commas added. BAsically, shite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperduck Quack Quack Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) I think house prices will be about the same at the end of the year as they are now, give or take a few % either way. There won't be a crash - by which I mean drops of 20-30 % or more. If that was going to happen, it would have done so by now. Edited February 25, 2011 by Hyperduck Quack Quack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not being able to sleep last night watched a Panorama repeat during the "signing zone" about the Irish property bubble. There wasn't one thing in that show that couldn't be applied to the UK. Excess credit, housing mania, corrupt banks and a cosy elite of politicians, bankers and speculators running the country. Yet the BBC would never dare make a similar programme about the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I think house prices will be about the same at the end of the year as they are now, give or take a few % either way. There won't be a crash - by which I mean drops of 20-30 % or more. If that was going to happen, it would have done so by now. well, it already happened, then the suckers rally came back, now its here for real.. entertainment purposes only BL prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beggar Thy Children Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not being able to sleep last night watched a Panorama repeat during the "signing zone" about the Irish property bubble. There wasn't one thing in that show that couldn't be applied to the UK. MASSIVE overbuilding? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) MASSIVE overbuilding? Well we did have massive inner city apartment building but apart from that Anyway despite massive overbuilding, house prices in Ireland still shot up. Back to bed.. Edited February 25, 2011 by Sir John Steed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (...) have just put in an offer! Yikes, haven't done that since 1998 when I bought my last gaff in California! And an insulting offer it was so I don't expect the vendor to say yes. Just my bit to inject some reality into asking prices--which are coming down my way by quite a bit. Well done. ? % below asking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MASSIVE overbuilding? How many houses did they build there? Do you have any data? Like number of dwellings? Average size? What exactly is "over building"? Working families being able to afford a 150sqm house? Or is this too big for serfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) Well done. ? % below asking? Original asking was £325k. Two drops since then to £250k. I have gone in at £200k and the offer has been accepted. EA is working on my vendor's seller (couple going into asheltered situation) to drop from £215 to £200 so my vendor gets more or less strait swap. The EA is surprised that my vendor will sell at £200k as the property is probably "worth" around £240 or so, even in todays nasty market. I accept it could well drop to £150-170k over the course of the next few years but I need to get settled and am happy with a nice 30-40% drop from the top this early in the game. Edited February 25, 2011 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjc Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) I think the fact the builers shares have done so well in the last quarter suggests that a price crash is unlikely in the short term... Builders tend to have large land banks and projects waiting to be finished and sold. All will be financed based on pirces not falling... If prices do fall they tend to loose a lorry load of dosh and hence I believe their share price can be used as a pretty reliable indicator of future hosue prices... Therefore if the market is liking these shares and (share) prices are rising it either means house prices will not fall or the market has it wrong... I think it was Dr Bubb who was very keen on using the builder's shares as an indicator, although he only seemed to point them out when they were falling and not heard him highlighting when they have been consistently rising as they have for the last 3 months... I should state I am not a bull - I have been an uber bear for at least 7 years... I think the fundamentals are still not great, but prices have fallen since 2007 and if you factor in inflation then prices are a lot cheaper now than 2007 and if inflation is allowed to carry on consistently surpising the B of E on the upside then they may not fall much more in nomial terms.... Edited February 25, 2011 by cjc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I think house prices will be about the same at the end of the year as they are now, give or take a few % either way. There won't be a crash - by which I mean drops of 20-30 % or more. If that was going to happen, it would have done so by now. Some houses will. Look at this - 26% off since April. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15328176.html?premiumA=true Property Bee: History date event 24 February 2011 * Price changed: £250,000 Fixed Price £220,000 [Found by n/a] 06 November 2010 * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'No Chain' [Found by n/a] 20 August 2010 * Price changed: from '£269,950' to '£250,000' [Found by n/a] 23 July 2010 * Status changed: from 'Under offer' to 'Available' [Found by n/a] 03 May 2010 * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Under offer' [Found by n/a] 24 April 2010 * Price changed: from '£299,950' to '£269,950' [Found by n/a] 09 April 2010 * Initial entry found. [Found by n/a] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beggar Thy Children Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 How many houses did they build there? Do you have any data? Like number of dwellings? Average size? What exactly is "over building"? Working families being able to afford a 150sqm house? Or is this too big for serfs? No, I don't have numbers or size data off the top of my head, sorry. But I think that building more dwellings than there are people to live in them (as mentioned in the panorama program) and having empty 'ghost estates' all over the place would be termed 'over building' by most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 ...if you factor in inflation then prices are a lot cheaper now than 2007 and if inflation is allowed to carry on consistently surpising the B of E on the upside then they may not fall much more in nomial terms.... Can you explain how the cost of my food being more expensive makes mortgages more affordable please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not being able to sleep last night watched a Panorama repeat during the "signing zone" about the Irish property bubble. There wasn't one thing in that show that couldn't be applied to the UK. Excess credit, housing mania, corrupt banks and a cosy elite of politicians, bankers and speculators running the country. Yet the BBC would never dare make a similar programme about the UK. If we crash they may well then. But until then they don't want to be seen to helping one along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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