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Gdp Revision - Place Your Bets Now

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Not long to go and a very very important revision. I think that they will revise up to 0% and that they may then even go to +0.1 on the 3rd revison in March. I have no basis for this other than I think they have encouraged a neg veiw to keep the interest rate debate down.

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Not long to go and a very very important revision. I think that they will revise up to 0% and that they may then even go to +0.1 on the 3rd revison in March. I have no basis for this other than I think they have encouraged a neg veiw to keep the interest rate debate down.

Has it ever been revised by more than 0.5% in either direction?

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Sterling-jumps-GDP-data-tele-2601334421.html?x=0

The third quarter Jult to Sept final figures have just come in and they were double the estimate. .8% instead of .4%.

So the fourth Q numbers will be positive in my opinion I would go for zero or .1% so that Georgie boy can shove the figures down fatty balls throat.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Sterling-jumps-GDP-data-tele-2601334421.html?x=0

The third quarter Jult to Sept final figures have just come in and they were double the estimate. .8% instead of .4%.

So the fourth Q numbers will be positive in my opinion I would go for zero or .1% so that Georgie boy can shove the figures down fatty balls throat.

If that happens it will just prove what a load of balls these figures are. I will hope for some truth in the figures and I predict a slight downward revision. That's not based on anything other than the evidence of my own eyes. If GDP is up I'd like to know who is doing the producing and, more to the point, who's doing the buying.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Sterling-jumps-GDP-data-tele-2601334421.html?x=0

The third quarter Jult to Sept final figures have just come in and they were double the estimate. .8% instead of .4%.

So the fourth Q numbers will be positive in my opinion I would go for zero or .1% so that Georgie boy can shove the figures down fatty balls throat.

I think you've been misled by the date on that article. It's actually four months old.

0.8% was the preliminary ONS Q3 estimate, later revised down to 0.7%.

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I think you've been misled by the date on that article. It's actually four months old.

0.8% was the preliminary ONS Q3 estimate, later revised down to 0.7%.

Oh apols. It was on the front page of yahoo this morning.

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If that happens it will just prove what a load of balls these figures are. I will hope for some truth in the figures and I predict a slight downward revision. That's not based on anything other than the evidence of my own eyes. If GDP is up I'd like to know who is doing the producing and, more to the point, who's doing the buying.

Are you up north? Down in the south here the shops seem full, people are well dressed and businesses seem busy.

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Are you up north? Down in the south here the shops seem full, people are well dressed and businesses seem busy.

No, I live near Bournemouth. There is a very thin veneer of "I'm still doing OK" bull from a certain type of person but the self employed tradesmen and shop owners round here have seen no joy since Christmas and not really any in the couple of months before that.

I can't really understand why anyone is trying to claim that a severe downturn is not already fully entrenched and here to stay for the foreseeable future. To me it's a bit of a "no brainer" what with cuts, promised cuts and the cuts that haven't even been announced yet. The country is shedding jobs already and none of the public sector cuts have really hit home yet. Some government contracts have been cancelled causing some private sector job losses but almost nobody has walked out the door in the public sector. Even when they do they will be carrying out a nice redundancy package meaning that they will still have, for at least a while, some spending power.

Things seem pretty bad to me right now and there is still the rest of the iceberg that's not so easy to see at the moment but is definitely there. :blink:

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No, I live near Bournemouth. There is a very thin veneer of "I'm still doing OK" bull from a certain type of person but the self employed tradesmen and shop owners round here have seen no joy since Christmas and not really any in the couple of months before that.

I can't really understand why anyone is trying to claim that a severe downturn is not already fully entrenched and here to stay for the foreseeable future. To me it's a bit of a "no brainer" what with cuts, promised cuts and the cuts that haven't even been announced yet. The country is shedding jobs already and none of the public sector cuts have really hit home yet. Some government contracts have been cancelled causing some private sector job losses but almost nobody has walked out the door in the public sector. Even when they do they will be carrying out a nice redundancy package meaning that they will still have, for at least a while, some spending power.

Things seem pretty bad to me right now and there is still the rest of the iceberg that's not so easy to see at the moment but is definitely there. :blink:

I'm near Bournemouth as well but I think most of the people there are so up their own **** that they will spend every last penny they have on trying to look good until the finally run out of credit, so are probably a very bad indicator. I'm sticking to my little corner of Ashley Cross

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I'm near Bournemouth as well but I think most of the people there are so up their own **** that they will spend every last penny they have on trying to look good until the finally run out of credit, so are probably a very bad indicator. I'm sticking to my little corner of Ashley Cross Ringwood

Corrected that for you ;-)

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No, I live near Bournemouth. There is a very thin veneer of "I'm still doing OK" bull from a certain type of person but the self employed tradesmen and shop owners round here have seen no joy since Christmas and not really any in the couple of months before that.

I can't really understand why anyone is trying to claim that a severe downturn is not already fully entrenched and here to stay for the foreseeable future. To me it's a bit of a "no brainer" what with cuts, promised cuts and the cuts that haven't even been announced yet. The country is shedding jobs already and none of the public sector cuts have really hit home yet. Some government contracts have been cancelled causing some private sector job losses but almost nobody has walked out the door in the public sector. Even when they do they will be carrying out a nice redundancy package meaning that they will still have, for at least a while, some spending power.

Things seem pretty bad to me right now and there is still the rest of the iceberg that's not so easy to see at the moment but is definitely there. :blink:

Things are never bad in Esher. Not Ever Never.

But very little is selling on the housing front.

In answer to your earlier question of where is the GDP coming from. I think it's Govt Deficit Spending, isn't it?

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Well i was wrong - revised down to -0.6%

Gross domestic product contracted by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised down from the previously estimated fall of 0.5 per cent. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 is now 1.5 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Output of the production industries was revised down from 0.9 per cent to 0.7 per cent growth in the latest quarter. Within production, manufacturing output increased by 1.1 per cent and utilities output grew by 4.6 per cent whilst mining and quarrying output fell by 4.5 per cent.

Construction output fell by 2.5 per cent, revised up from a fall of 3.3 per cent in the previous estimate.

Output in the service industries was revised down to a fall of 0.7 per cent in the latest quarter from a fall of 0.5 per cent reported in the preliminary estimate. The decline this quarter was driven by a fall in business services of 1.1 per cent, together with a fall of 1.4 per cent in transport, storage and communications services.

Household expenditure fell 0.1 per cent following a rise of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2010.

Government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.7 per cent and is now 1.2 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Gross fixed capital formation fell 2.5 per cent but remains 5.6 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Inventories rose by £1.2 billion on the quarter.

In the fourth quarter of 2010 the trade deficit in real terms increased to £10.2 billion from £9.3 billion. Exports of goods and services rose 2.3 per cent whilst imports rose 3.0 per cent.

The GDP implied deflator rose by 2.8 per cent compared with the fourth quarter of 2009.

Compensation of employees at current prices rose by 0.1 per cent in the latest quarter and is 1.9 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Total gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 2.0 per cent and is 4.5 per cent higher than the same period last year.

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If that happens it will just prove what a load of balls these figures are. I will hope for some truth in the figures and I predict a slight downward revision. That's not based on anything other than the evidence of my own eyes. If GDP is up I'd like to know who is doing the producing and, more to the point, who's doing the buying.

I'm not one to say I told you so, but................I TOLD YOU SO :lol:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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