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Freelance Mycophagist

4th Quarter 2005 - Make Or Break For Hpc?

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We all know that any HPC is going to be a long, drawn out process. Given how far we've come (media now bearish, YOY figures nearly negative, inflationary pressures building) I can't help but think that Q4 could be the period in which the direction of the market becomes conclusive. Maybe it's just 'cabin fever' (as the Chuz puts it) but if the market has not moved significantly towards a correction by the end of the year, I may just start to believe the crap peddled by the VI's. Is it pointless to keep speculating on WHEN this b@stard market is finally going to give?

DEATH TO THIRSTY PORNSHOP AND FOUL SPHINCTER!!!

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We all know that any HPC is going to be a long, drawn out process.  Given how far we've come (media now bearish, YOY figures nearly negative, inflationary pressures building) I can't help but think that Q4 could be the period in which the direction of the market becomes conclusive.  Maybe it's just 'cabin fever' (as the Chuz puts it) but if the market has not moved significantly towards a correction by the end of the year, I may just start to believe the crap peddled by the VI's.  Is it pointless to keep speculating on WHEN this b@stard market is finally going to give?

DEATH TO THIRSTY PORNSHOP AND FOUL SPHINCTER!!!

The other alternative is to redirect your energies toward something 'creative'. Take up macrame, buy a boat and do some deep sea fishing... the options are limitless... the market will give when you are not looking... its the 'watched pot' situation... and have you noticed that a day feels like a week?

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We all know that any HPC is going to be a long, drawn out process.  Given how far we've come (media now bearish, YOY figures nearly negative, inflationary pressures building) I can't help but think that Q4 could be the period in which the direction of the market becomes conclusive.  Maybe it's just 'cabin fever' (as the Chuz puts it) but if the market has not moved significantly towards a correction by the end of the year, I may just start to believe the crap peddled by the VI's.  Is it pointless to keep speculating on WHEN this b@stard market is finally going to give?

DEATH TO THIRSTY PORNSHOP AND FOUL SPHINCTER!!!

Why do you doubt that a highly emotive, amature infested pyramid scheme which would collapse overnight if interest rates hit 5% will survive when interest rates are returned to that neutral rate.It's only a non-stimulating 5% level we are talking about. Look at what's happening around the world, the FED and the ECB have both said they are more concerned with inflation than subdued growth this week. The UK is more dependent on other central banks' monetary policy than any other economy in the west.Remember it's only a return to neutral interest rates that will kill the market overnight. In the absense of that 5% it will take longer but the result will always be the same. ;)

Edited by delite1

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We all know that any HPC is going to be a long, drawn out process.  Given how far we've come (media now bearish, YOY figures nearly negative, inflationary pressures building) I can't help but think that Q4 could be the period in which the direction of the market becomes conclusive.  Maybe it's just 'cabin fever' (as the Chuz puts it) but if the market has not moved significantly towards a correction by the end of the year, I may just start to believe the crap peddled by the VI's.  Is it pointless to keep speculating on WHEN this b@stard market is finally going to give?

I'll let David Soul try to persuade you:

"Don't give up on us baby (Freelance!)

We'll still come through...somehow!!

;)

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The way I can see it panning out is;

1. Cut in interest rates - despite what inflation is doing (it's now political and not economic).

2. Inflation picks up a bit. Hey there's no point in saving...

3. Perhaps a small fall in nominal terms, the rest will be inflated away.

4. Brown becomes PM. After that anything goes, all he wants is to be PM.

In other words, I'm not really expecting any wailing and gnashing of teeth. Things may of course change and so will my opinion, but I'm not too keen on staying out of the market if there isn't a large enough nominal drop and the debt can be miracles away by the buffoons at the BoE.

<_<

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its the 'watched pot' situation... and have you noticed that a day feels like a week?

A very wise remark.

I suspect there are quite a few on this forum who sit glued to the posts expecting a sudden crash to unfold before their eyes. Great patience is required and, as you say, the crash will happen when you are not looking.

Meanwhile get on with your life, forget loss-making property and look at the real opportunies for making money, save and carry on renting cheaply.

Oh, and don't even think of buying in the current market..............

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My wife was starting to get frustrated too. Until we noticed a house come back on the market. Last year it didn't sell (£800k) and it disappeared out of the adverts. It's just come back on at £765k. It's still overpriced. But that's a nice drop to be starting with. Also the difference now is that people make offers and don't even consider offering the asking price so it will go for quite a bit less.

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While I am frustrated with the progress of the HPC I am not contemplating 'breaking ranks'. The main point of my post (apart from blowing off some pent-up demand; I mean, steam) was to pose the question "are we truly going to reach the tipping point during the next quater?"

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Guest wrongmove
Is it pointless to keep speculating on WHEN this b@stard market is finally going to give?

No, IMHO.

However, if ownership is really important to you AND you can afford somewhere suitable, then probably best to just buy now (after protracted haggling and bargain hunting of course), then forget about prices and get on with your life. (e.g. MONKEY)

If you cannot afford, or if renting does not bother you, then don't stress, just let the drama unfold. Market tops often have a "head and shoulders". We may have only seen the left shoulder so far.....

But if you have the money, and really want to own, I reckon it's probably best to just get on with it. What price peace of mind? No point in getting angina just to save a few quid. Prices have dropped a bit in most areas, and there seem to be more motivated sellers. Some legwork now may get you a much better deal than a year or two ago already.

BTW, I'm a happy renter and will continue to watch with interest, while spending time improving my employment prospects, rather than lining B&Q's pockets. :)

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A very wise remark.

I suspect there are quite a few on this forum who sit glued to the posts expecting a sudden crash to unfold before their eyes. Great patience is required and, as you say, the crash will happen when you are not looking.

Meanwhile get on with your life, forget loss-making property and look at the real opportunies for making money, save and carry on renting cheaply.

Oh, and don't even think of buying in the current market..............

Wise advice Red Baron. I must admit i weaken from time to time as well & start getting that "Must buy" itch. But a few moments of thinking it all through and all the negative points of the current housing market come flooding back.This wakes me up & it's back to reality with money still safely in the bank and renting with no worries or major debts and definitly no expensive depreciating so called "assett" around my neck.

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The thing about renting is there is no stability, since we moved to London over 2 years ago, we have had to move 3 times, because owners decided to sell. The rental we are currently in has put a clause in the new lease stating that they can break the lease in 6 months (it is a 12 month lease), which will bring us to the spring time, which is obviously peak selling time. Because of this we have not signed the lease and have just left it as rolling so we have some control over what we do. I have to say though that we have decided to start looking to buy after Christmas, the main reason is that we have a little boy and I have just found out I am pregnant again and in these circumstances we can't keep moving, it's just not practical. If it was just me and my husband we would sit it out until prices come down considerably, but we now need a home, and it would be a home not an investment. We are hoping also the next quarter will bring some drops which will make it easier to take this decision.

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Congratulations desparate.

The tennancy agreements these days are a nightmare for people with little kids unless you find a rental you know is long term.

We've been through your situation 3 times and... what the.. we're still in the same house!!

Why not try to advertise for a property to rent privately. If you meet the owner face to face you can get a better idea of whether they are decent or not. Some landlords actually want long term stable no trouble tenants who pay on time every month (like mine). It can be hard to find though.

Best wishes with whatever you decide.

C.P.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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