Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

The View From The Other Side


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 328
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

mmm.... Its certainly different in Australia, sold prices are posted on internet sites like they do on Zoopla. So, its not just me, it really is pretty tricky to do thorough due diligence on a property in N I. Not sure why this info should still be held confidential but thanks for the tip. My research is a labour of love and we are having mostly a love hate relationship these days :P

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

RNIEA

All this sunshine must be good for viewings.

Little seems to be happening on these threads, however. Is this the calm before the storm, or just the way it's going to be for an extended period, I wonder?

Not a lot coming on or selling (bar a few very keenly priced repos) where I am. Some big end reductions tho (£400k +)

My guess is stasis, for a month or 2, as newer sellers get the same message (through no interest/lack of sale) as those on for months and years - priced too high by EA, or Vendor chancing it (lets see if we get any interest) or just greed. Pipe still blocked, construction industry poor, people wary (and weary), developers under pressure, banks alert to risk. I think inflation, petrol and pay freezes/job losses are bringing reality to people and sentiment is still poor.

I'm hearing more stories of regular joes/families getting burnt or in massive diffs over property, mostly by overstretching or getting the timing wrong. Lots of unfinished starts sitting about also esp in rural areas. A little more "bad" news and some further price reductions over the coming weeks may shoo things along. Rating of vacant property from Aug and rising interest rates will be interesting esp if banks move quicker/further on repos.

What are you seeing/expecting.

What are you telling vendors - what are they telling you?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello again, I was just checking in as I've been away all weekend and noticed your post. I'm afraid to say as far as I'm concerned there has been little change since the new year in terms of new instructions, sales or repossessions. I would still say that April has been a better month than any previous one since last September but compared to normal levels of transactions pre-boom, it's still extremely slow and nowhere as good as we need it to be.

I am yet to see the flood of repossessions hit the market in my area but I think that is yet to come, however whatever stock I have that is repossessed is now receiving decent offers and we should shift most of it. The banks seem to be holding off from repossessing people as I have spoken to a few people who are close to the wire with no improvement in their circumstances on the horizon yet they dont seem pressurized by the banks to pay the mortgage. Some are making tiny payments to cover only part of the interest and this is staving off repossession. Something has to give eventually.

I'll be honest and say that I'm fairly depressed about the next few years as an EA. I dont see any great improvement in sales and I see every day being a slog to make a living and pay my staff. We offer all property related services but the only thing that is making money is renting and remortgaging which tells you everything you need to know about our housing market right now.

I have been completely upfront with any potential sellers about the state of the market and have been surprised to see that most of them are in total agreement with what needs to be done to sell a property these days. The problem is that our new listings are low so there is not enough well priced stock coming onto the market. I did a bit of a sweep of EAs across the province to check their sale agreeds and the story seems to be the same everywhere - an extremely low number of transactions. One was completely honest and told me he had sold one property in 2 months! I wondered how he was still in business but didnt want to pry any further. There is certainly no apparent spring bounce to be seen from within the industry.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think inflation, petrol and pay freezes/job losses are bringing reality to people and sentiment is still poor.

The new Victorians: Families face biggest cash crunch since 1870

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1382884/The-new-Victorians-Families-face-biggest-cash-crunch-1870.html

We are in the eye of a hurricane at the minute ... time to batten down the hatches!! :ph34r:

Link to post
Share on other sites

I just wanted to say that today was probably the busiest day I've had this year, evidenced by the fact that I only had time for one cup of coffee and a stale biscuit in the office all day. It was one of those days that I can only dream of where buyers come out of the woodwork and make decent offers and the vendors actually agree that the offers are fair!

I'm finding myself becoming ever more bearish, even if it is only in my head, as I would never jeopardise a sale by giving my opinion on the future market to a buyer. Today, for the first time in ages I received an offer on a house that I thought was crazy - because it was too high! My opinion was that 10k less would have been a good deal for both parties but the buyers just loved the place and wanted to pay 1k under asking price which was well above its true value. I only hope it values up ok as it's bordering on a similar price for the next level up in housing type. No matter what some people on here might think, I cannot and will not guide a buyer to pay a lower figure to make sure that it easily values up for mortgage purposes. It is my job to get the best possible price and if it is rejected by the lender, then we can go back and renegotiate.

Still no more repossessions coming onto the market which is worrying.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I just wanted to say that today was probably the busiest day I've had this year, evidenced by the fact that I only had time for one cup of coffee and a stale biscuit in the office all day. It was one of those days that I can only dream of where buyers come out of the woodwork and make decent offers and the vendors actually agree that the offers are fair!

I'm finding myself becoming ever more bearish, even if it is only in my head, as I would never jeopardise a sale by giving my opinion on the future market to a buyer. Today, for the first time in ages I received an offer on a house that I thought was crazy - because it was too high! My opinion was that 10k less would have been a good deal for both parties but the buyers just loved the place and wanted to pay 1k under asking price which was well above its true value. I only hope it values up ok as it's bordering on a similar price for the next level up in housing type. No matter what some people on here might think, I cannot and will not guide a buyer to pay a lower figure to make sure that it easily values up for mortgage purposes. It is my job to get the best possible price and if it is rejected by the lender, then we can go back and renegotiate.

Still no more repossessions coming onto the market which is worrying.

A blip?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Today, for the first time in ages I received an offer on a house that I thought was crazy - because it was too high! My opinion was that 10k less would have been a good deal for both parties but the buyers just loved the place and wanted to pay 1k under asking price which was well above its true value.

I'm not having a go ... just curious ... did you overvalue it in the first place then if the asking price was £10k above the 'true value' as you put it?

This seems to be a tactic applied by EA's knowing that offers will generally be about 10% lower than the asking price if they do ever come about.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not having a go ... just curious ... did you overvalue it in the first place then if the asking price was £10k above the 'true value' as you put it?

This seems to be a tactic applied by EA's knowing that offers will generally be about 10% lower than the asking price if they do ever come about.

No, when the house came onto the market about 6 months ago its value was as accurate as anyone could have hoped for and not overpriced in my opinion. As the market has dropped and confidence got even lower I just felt that this latest offer was above what the new value of the house should be. Probably just a blip as shotoflight said so I'm not getting too worked up about it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

No, when the house came onto the market about 6 months ago its value was as accurate as anyone could have hoped for and not overpriced in my opinion. As the market has dropped and confidence got even lower I just felt that this latest offer was above what the new value of the house should be. Probably just a blip as shotoflight said so I'm not getting too worked up about it.

Price keenly.

When using 'comparables' be aware of time on market before sale, historic low level of sales (lightning may not strike twice), speed of the correction/falls, and possibility of sale falling through.

Manage expectations. Review every 2 or 3 months and reprice appropriately as circumstances change (invariably downwards) if seller is serious.

Devote spare capacity to (diversify) rentals as evidence would point to both growth and strong demand (correlated to drop in house sales).

Make sure all staff are on board and clued up as to what is really going on in the market and coming down the tracks - a bit more realism.

Spend more time on here.

Buy some new biscuits ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

I happened to be speaking to a senior economist for one of the local banks this week and his predictions for the future were an eye opener even for me. He said that he expects repossessions to hit the market at a higher rate than at any time in the past 20 years and says that the NAMA impact of selling off properties will have a bigger impact on prices than people think. On the whole he was quite negative about our current situation and said that it will take at least 15 years for prices to reach the same level that they were in the peak of 2007. We have seen our repossession stock double in the last 2 weeks so it seems that he may well be right. On the flip side our sales are up but that's because we are selling alot more repossessed properties. Everything seems to be revolving around some people taking advantage of the current situation and picking up an attractively priced repossessed property. Nothing privately owned has sold in the last month so repossessions are the way forward.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I happened to be speaking to a senior economist for one of the local banks this week and his predictions for the future were an eye opener even for me. He said that he expects repossessions to hit the market at a higher rate than at any time in the past 20 years and says that the NAMA impact of selling off properties will have a bigger impact on prices than people think. On the whole he was quite negative about our current situation and said that it will take at least 15 years for prices to reach the same level that they were in the peak of 2007. We have seen our repossession stock double in the last 2 weeks so it seems that he may well be right. On the flip side our sales are up but that's because we are selling alot more repossessed properties. Everything seems to be revolving around some people taking advantage of the current situation and picking up an attractively priced repossessed property. Nothing privately owned has sold in the last month so repossessions are the way forward.

can i just ask about the repos...are they mostly smaller houses and terraced or is there a good range coming on?

i had a feeling alot of the repos would be from burnt 'investors' of terraced houses in built up areas that were being rented out or something. are you finding many 'family owned' houses and 3bed semis/detached coming on?

Link to post
Share on other sites

can i just ask about the repos...are they mostly smaller houses and terraced or is there a good range coming on?

i had a feeling alot of the repos would be from burnt 'investors' of terraced houses in built up areas that were being rented out or something. are you finding many 'family owned' houses and 3bed semis/detached coming on?

Every type of property is coming onto our books as a repossession form the small terrace to large country house. The majority seem to be either ex council semis or semis in private developments. These would be your typical family homes so it seems that it is the working families that are losing their homes and not the BTL brigade as far as I can see. Through my contacts I have heard of a BTL portfolio of over 50 houses that is due to be repossessed and sold off as individual properties so that will change the origin of where most of the repossessions are coming from.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Every type of property is coming onto our books as a repossession form the small terrace to large country house. The majority seem to be either ex council semis or semis in private developments. These would be your typical family homes so it seems that it is the working families that are losing their homes and not the BTL brigade as far as I can see. Through my contacts I have heard of a BTL portfolio of over 50 houses that is due to be repossessed and sold off as individual properties so that will change the origin of where most of the repossessions are coming from.

Thought this was an interesting buy - looks a repo in Ards

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=7&s=130233492&i=5&p=JGNJGN1560&fp=1&sort=h2l

For whats its worth I bought a repo which I think was an investment gone wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My parents are thinking of moving house. Kids all grown up now and flown the nest so the house is a bit too big for them. My mum seen a house she liked in an EA window so called in to ask the price as it was POA

She was talked out of buying it by the EA who said it needed 50k worth of work done to it and wasn't great inside. Asking price was 230k, someone offered 220k and it was refused!

Anyway my mum couldn't get out of the palce for 40 minutes as the EA kept her chatting about houses in general. She told me that not one other person had come in in that time.

The EA told her that things are going to get much, much worse this year. My mum mentioned me as a FTB and he said i was in a great postion and i should hold on a while yet before buying.

So for that reason im out.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My parents are thinking of moving house. Kids all grown up now and flown the nest so the house is a bit too big for them. My mum seen a house she liked in an EA window so called in to ask the price as it was POA

She was talked out of buying it by the EA who said it needed 50k worth of work done to it and wasn't great inside. Asking price was 230k, someone offered 220k and it was refused!

Anyway my mum couldn't get out of the palce for 40 minutes as the EA kept her chatting about houses in general. She told me that not one other person had come in in that time.

The EA told her that things are going to get much, much worse this year. My mum mentioned me as a FTB and he said i was in a great postion and i should hold on a while yet before buying.

So for that reason im out.

Interesting info.

I rarely see anyone in any of the EA offices I visit but I still get mainly the bull spin.

NI seems far more realistic than Wales.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My parents are thinking of moving house. Kids all grown up now and flown the nest so the house is a bit too big for them. My mum seen a house she liked in an EA window so called in to ask the price as it was POA

She was talked out of buying it by the EA who said it needed 50k worth of work done to it and wasn't great inside. Asking price was 230k, someone offered 220k and it was refused!

Anyway my mum couldn't get out of the palce for 40 minutes as the EA kept her chatting about houses in general. She told me that not one other person had come in in that time.

The EA told her that things are going to get much, much worse this year. My mum mentioned me as a FTB and he said i was in a great postion and i should hold on a while yet before buying.

So for that reason im out.

Don't tell me you are starting to take advice from an EA!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with BB on this. All this talk of duel income households is just clutching at straws. The market in time will revert to its long term average. It already is. And unless I'm mistaken the trend is very much down.

You misunderstood. When I talk about the boost duel income households create. I am talking in past tents. It happened over the last 30 years. It cant happen again and therefore the benefit it created to house prices (if you allow that phrase) is gone and cant be repeated. I am talking the market down with this.

I don't think there is a downward trend in duel income households. Not through choice anyway. We are dependent upon it. Everything (our expected standard of living) has moved on to absorb the extra income and instead of a duel income household been view as doing quite well, 40 years ago, its not required to bring a household to a normal standard of lifestyle. It can't be reversed, in my view and a return to a stay at home mum(or dad for that matter) is only wishful thinking. Many would perhaps like to but lifestyles require that we keep on with it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with BB on this. All this talk of duel income households is just clutching at straws. The market in time will revert to its long term average. It already is. And unless I'm mistaken the trend is very much down.

What is the long term average ? ... 3.5 x average salary?

I am just trying to quantify this for anyone who is interested - from a joint income perspective, MTG multipliers used to work on the basis of 3 X salary for sole applications and anything from 2.5 - 2.8 X salary for Joint salaries. (before normal lending rules went out the window)

If this was the case then we would be talking roughly as follows;

SOLE MTG APPLICATION

3 X average salary of £23k = £69k

JOINT MTG APPLICATION

2.5 X combined average salary of £46k = £115,000

2.8 X combined average salary of £46k = £128,800

I guess we are still some way off. If you are on your own you may start putting adverts into the lonely ad's column

28yr old male seeks young attractive female to increase MTG Multiplier with bank and to help fund property purchase. Must be prepared to live on bread and water and enjoy sitting in the cold as no heating can be put on as we will have spent all our money on associated housing costs. :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the long term average ? ... 3.5 x average salary?

I am just trying to quantify this for anyone who is interested - from a joint income perspective, MTG multipliers used to work on the basis of 3 X salary for sole applications and anything from 2.5 - 2.8 X salary for Joint salaries. (before normal lending rules went out the window)

If this was the case then we would be talking roughly as follows;

SOLE MTG APPLICATION

3 X average salary of £23k = £69k

JOINT MTG APPLICATION

2.5 X combined average salary of £46k = £115,000

2.8 X combined average salary of £46k = £128,800

I guess we are still some way off. If you are on your own you may start putting adverts into the lonely ad's column

28yr old male seeks young attractive female to increase MTG Multiplier with bank and to help fund property purchase. Must be prepared to live on bread and water and enjoy sitting in the cold as no heating can be put on as we will have spent all our money on associated housing costs. :D

Reproduction is a no no as we couldn’t afford the associated cost involved in the continuation of the species. Sterilisation is therefore a must

Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the long term average ? ... 3.5 x average salary?

I am just trying to quantify this for anyone who is interested - from a joint income perspective, MTG multipliers used to work on the basis of 3 X salary for sole applications and anything from 2.5 - 2.8 X salary for Joint salaries. (before normal lending rules went out the window)

If this was the case then we would be talking roughly as follows;

SOLE MTG APPLICATION

3 X average salary of £23k = £69k

JOINT MTG APPLICATION

2.5 X combined average salary of £46k = £115,000

2.8 X combined average salary of £46k = £128,800

I guess we are still some way off. If you are on your own you may start putting adverts into the lonely ad's column

28yr old male seeks young attractive female to increase MTG Multiplier with bank and to help fund property purchase. Must be prepared to live on bread and water and enjoy sitting in the cold as no heating can be put on as we will have spent all our money on associated housing costs. :D

You'll have 11 yrs to find her going by the average FTB age with, possibly, a nice nest egg of student debt - each. At least we'll be past the £4 billion of cuts by that stage, and interest rates will have reverted to their historic norms. ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.