50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) The bearish energy grows strong within me. Tasteless blue LEDs illuminate the bearish path ahead. Who will follow me and fulfil their HPC destiny? You only have one shot at glory and I'm getting mine away early. This time next week, Black Monday will be upon us and no-one will be able to deny it. I'm calling it. Updated: Oil is the catalyst, alongside a plummeting dollar that breaks critical support and a panic-driven gold spike. The stock markets chop around for the remainder of the week, finishing with an ominous red candle on Friday. Bearish psychology is in force and entrenched further as the weekend dinner parties of savvy MEWers and BTLers turn sour. Events in Africa get out of hand Saturday evening. High frequency momentum algorithms go from Bernanke's best friend to his worst nightmare. The words 'Black Monday' headline the late edition of the Evening Standard. Black Monday 2011, as decreed by the popular media, will be a combination of bloody political revolution, soaring oil, food and gold prices, inflation-panic, a strong down-day for the stock markets and an incontrovertible recognition that the trend for UK house prices is unstoppably down. I was just finishing up at the office when I had the once-in-a-lifetime Black Monday urge. Now I'm home I hope I've clarified the conditions and circumstances of the Black Monday call so it's within the bounds of historical precedent. Black Monday's are panic-events that cannot be forecasted by logical reasoning. As the fallen heroes of previous false Black Monday dawns will no doubt attest, when you have the hunch, you just have to go with it. Edited February 21, 2011 by 50sQuiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh oh oh a black xday thread....... For this to stick you need to cite your reasons in a logical view point i think you are wrong i cant see a black day untill 1 month after the budget qhen IRs get raised and an emergency meeting by the BOE is hurridly arranged on a sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The bearish energy grows strong within me. Tasteless blue LEDs illuminate the bearish path ahead. Who will follow me and fulfil their HPC destiny? You only have one shot at glory and I'm getting mine away early. This time next week, Black Monday will be upon us and no-one will be able to deny it. I'm calling it. Who cares about black monday! Where can I buy a house with those snazzy lights!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Who cares about black monday! Where can I buy a house with those snazzy lights!? spain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How can it happen now when you have giving them such an early warning? The Bernanke and Bernie King will be shouting BUY BUY BUY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This time next week, Black Monday will be upon us and no-one will be able to deny it. I'm calling it. I think you need to qualify your Black Monday forecast. stock markets down 5% ? more ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh oh oh a black xday thread....... For this to stick you need to cite your reasons in a logical view point i think you are wrong i cant see a black day untill 1 month after the budget qhen IRs get raised and an emergency meeting by the BOE is hurridly arranged on a sunday Oil is the catalyst, alongside a plummeting dollar that breaks critical support and a panic-driven gold spike. The stock markets chop around for the remainder of the week, finishing with an ominous red candle on Friday. Bearish psychology is in force and entrenched further as the weekend dinner parties of savvy MEWers and BTLers turn sour. Events in Africa get out of hand Saturday evening. High frequency momentum algorithms go from Bernanke's best friend to his worst nightmare. The words 'Black Monday' headline the late edition of the Evening Standard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuts Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The OP is assuming that the market is straight. i.e. sell off on bad news, rise on good news. The sad reality is that a melt-up often occurs on bad news. Black Monday... yes... but not in this market. Normal market behaviour does not take place under the current policy regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The OP is assuming that the market is straight. i.e. sell off on bad news, rise on good news. The sad reality is that a melt-up often occurs on bad news. Black Monday... yes... but not in this market. Normal market behaviour does not take place under the current policy regime. OP is assuming the market is a chaotic but fractal system prone to violent bifurcation based on an irrational and frightening herd psychology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Markets crash on euphoria not bearishness. As markets are overbought then a correction certainly but we are not in the euphoria stage that signals a market top. Towards the end of the year we may be heading there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Markets crash on euphoria not bearishness. As markets are overbought then a correction certainly but we are not in the euphoria stage that signals a market top. Towards the end of the year we may be heading there. Ah, such sagacity. Would you class September 2008 as a euphoric period? I wouldn't, and the markets embarked upon their worst fall in history. It didn't happen in one day, and I didn't say the markets would crash this time either. Black Monday 2011, as decreed by the popular media, will be a combination of bloody political revolution, soaring oil, food and gold prices, inflation-panic, a strong down-day for the stock markets and an incontrovertible recognition that the trend for UK house prices is unstoppably down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh oh oh a black xday thread....... For this to stick you need to cite your reasons in a logical view point Yes, I am digusted at you calling a BM and not putting forward your rantings as to why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) Ah, such sagacity. Would you class September 2008 as a euphoric period? I wouldn't, and the markets embarked upon their worst fall in history. It didn't happen in one day, and I didn't say the markets would crash this time either. Black Monday 2011, as decreed by the popular media, will be a combination of bloody political revolution, soaring oil, food and gold prices, inflation-panic, a strong down-day for the stock markets and an incontrovertible recognition that the trend for UK house prices is unstoppably down. 2008 marked the end of a 25 year debt supercycle, the peak of the biggest credit binge in history. As central banks were reducing interest rates during the period the topping out period took a long time. Likewise look at the topping out period now with the bond bubble that has last 29 years. Taking a long time to pop, as property did in 2007-09, as the stockmarket in 2007-08. If black monday to you is a 5% fall and then a correction of some 10-15% then yes quite likely soon. If you think we are going to retest the lows of March 2009 in the next month forget it. The market will likely top out around the level of 6700 or so on the FTSE100. we need to get near to the previous high and then a correction/crash to allow the secular bear to revalue P/Es low through the correction and rising earnings. Then the real secular bull can commence, probably sometime 2-7 years away. Stick to the defensives buddy. Edited February 21, 2011 by ringledman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yes, I am digusted at you calling a BM and not putting forward your rantings as to why? I was just finishing up at the office when I had the once-in-a-lifetime Black Monday urge. Now I'm home I hope I've clarified the conditions and circumstances of the Black Monday call so it's within the bounds of historical precedent. Moreover, Black Monday's are panic-events that cannot be forecasted by logical reasoning. As the fallen heroes of previous false Black Monday dawns will no doubt attest, when you have the hunch, you just have to go with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuggets Mahoney Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I was just finishing up at the office when I had the once-in-a-lifetime Black Monday urge. Now I'm home I hope I've clarified the conditions and circumstances of the Black Monday call so it's within the bounds of historical precedent. Moreover, Black Monday's are panic-events that cannot be forecasted by logical reasoning. As the fallen heroes of previous false Black Monday dawns will no doubt attest, when you have the hunch, you just have to go with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfp123 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) 2008 marked the end of a 25 year debt supercycle, the peak of the biggest credit binge in history. As central banks were reducing interest rates during the period the topping out period took a long time. Likewise look at the topping out period now with the bond bubble that has last 29 years. Taking a long time to pop, as property did in 2007-09, as the stockmarket in 2007-08. If black monday to you is a 5% fall and then a correction of some 10-15% then yes quite likely soon. If you think we are going to retest the lows of March 2009 in the next month forget it. The market will likely top out around the level of 6700 or so on the FTSE100. we need to get near to the previous high and then a correction/crash to allow the secular bear to revalue P/Es low through the correction and rising earnings. Then the real secular bull can commence, probably sometime 2-7 years away. Stick to the defensives buddy. i wouldnt quite call it the end of the debt supercycle, more like the beginning of the debt spiral. debts are higher today than they were in 2008. they will be higher next year than they are today. in 5 years they will be higher still. us debt is set to top 20 trillion by 2014. remember the government cuts arent reducing the debts, they are reducing the deficit. the bill has racked up and were still adding to the bill, but just by slightly less. we havent even begun to pay it off yet. given that an efficient government was considered borrowing at around 40% of gdp, and we are at 80%. how many years will it take to get back to that level? forget reduced borrowing, we would need a £100billion surplus for around 4 years straight just to get back to where we were when everything was good. government expenditure is £600 billion. tax revenues are £500 billion. we would need to cut spending by £200billion a year to get a £100billion surplus. and do it for 4-5 years just to get back to normal. thats how deep in trouble we are. Edited February 21, 2011 by mfp123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i wouldnt quite call it the end of the debt supercycle, more like the beginning of the debt spiral. debts are higher today than they were in 2008. they will be higher next year than they are today. in 5 years they will be higher still. us debt is set to top 20 trillion by 2014. remember the government cuts arent reducing the debts, they are reducing the deficit. the bill has racked up and were still adding to the bill, but just by slightly less. we havent even begun to pay it off yet. given that an efficient government was considered borrowing at around 40% of gdp, and we are at 80%. how many years will it take to get back to that level? forget reduced borrowing, we would need a £100billion surplus for around 4 years straight just to get back to where we were when everything was good. government expenditure is £600 billion. tax revenues are £500 billion. we would need to cut spending by £200billion a year to get a £100billion surplus. and do it for 4-5 years just to get back to normal. thats how deep in trouble we are. Straying way off point but couldn't agree more. The debt bomb that the zanu party left us in is a disgrace and the debt will only go up until the deficit is cut. The quicker we cut the deficit the better. However stockmarket returns have zero correlation with the health of the economy. In fact emperical evidence shows that lower gdp growth leads to higher returns. Likewise with central banks hellbent on printing conffetti paper over the next decade and running negative interest rates, equities will be one of the few places to store one's wealth. It will be one heck of a rocky decade for equities but It is 100% guaranteed that cash and bonds will lose more in real terms than equities over the next decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) Well clearly it is not exactly out of the blue is it? Let's be fair about this. On the fringes of Europe the region that produces the bulk of our oil is in political ferment in an arc from North Africa thru the Middle East to the Gulf and you think you've got an uncanny sixth sense. So you're disputing the fact that I have a sixth sense that permits me to identify Black Mondays? How dare you. Edited February 21, 2011 by 50sQuiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the oil spike will 'cause' in a proximate equity selloff/correction. I'd tend to go the other way to you on the dollar though. i.e. it'll get bid up as a safe haven along with bonds. (I'm talking 2-4 month swings here in the spirit of the OP, not interested at all in the decadal nonsense posted elsewhere on this thread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (I'm talking 2-4 month swings here in the spirit of the OP, not interested at all in the decadal nonsense posted elsewhere on this thread). So you forsee bonds and cash making any sort of real return over the next 10 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right_freds_dead Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 forget it. its 5-10+ years of stagflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 somewhat blackish today down 60 at opening oil near 110, riots all over the place, earthquakes, no X factor, where's this all going to end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100009544/sour-krauts-and-emu/ Germany not looking good. If they cannot bail out the rest of the EU the markets may reduce the value of EZ stocks and add a few percentage points to their bonds. Nasty scenarios presenting themselves in the ME. OIl getting out of control. House market beginning to lose steam in the UK as job cuts begin to work themselves into a frenzy. All in all, i would say that is a strong buy signal for stocks! * But really folks, I am bearish in the extreme on just about everything and especially commodities and its bubbleicious condition given the frailty of world economies. Choose the best currency as some are about to go down hard and the laws of relativity means that, by the same measure, others will rise. £ looks set ofr a hit as it has risen the most recently. The Euro? Stand well clear and don't hold too many Yen either although they are too big to fail and might call in their loans sending IR soaring everywhere. Nas-tair out there. _________________________ * Caution is the word--I am still lite stocks and do not plan to add more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 We've had a Black Monday, and a Black Wednesday, you need to pick a different day for your Blackness... How about a Black Sunday - when a giant flock of Black Swans fly over and blot out the sun, causing worldwide panic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The bearish energy grows strong within me. Tasteless blue LEDs illuminate the bearish path ahead. Who will follow me and fulfil their HPC destiny? You only have one shot at glory and I'm getting mine away early. This time next week, Black Monday will be upon us and no-one will be able to deny it. I'm calling it. Updated: Oil is the catalyst, alongside a plummeting dollar that breaks critical support and a panic-driven gold spike. The stock markets chop around for the remainder of the week, finishing with an ominous red candle on Friday. Bearish psychology is in force and entrenched further as the weekend dinner parties of savvy MEWers and BTLers turn sour. Events in Africa get out of hand Saturday evening. High frequency momentum algorithms go from Bernanke's best friend to his worst nightmare. The words 'Black Monday' headline the late edition of the Evening Standard. Black Monday 2011, as decreed by the popular media, will be a combination of bloody political revolution, soaring oil, food and gold prices, inflation-panic, a strong down-day for the stock markets and an incontrovertible recognition that the trend for UK house prices is unstoppably down. I was just finishing up at the office when I had the once-in-a-lifetime Black Monday urge. Now I'm home I hope I've clarified the conditions and circumstances of the Black Monday call so it's within the bounds of historical precedent. Black Monday's are panic-events that cannot be forecasted by logical reasoning. As the fallen heroes of previous false Black Monday dawns will no doubt attest, when you have the hunch, you just have to go with it. The ways things are going this week I think you may be three days too late Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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