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House Prices Fears Amid Huge Supply Of Properties For Sale

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8336465/House-prices-fears-amid-huge-supply-of-properties-for-sale.html

Fears are mounting about a new house price crash as figures disclose today that the number of properties for sale is almost double the number of mortgages being approved.

The latest housing survey from property website Rightmove suggested there were 1.3 million properties for sale, but just 530,000 mortgages approved last year.

It blamed the gap between supply and demand on a lack of affordable mortgage and concerns about the economic outlook among buyers.

It suggested that some buyers who were unable to sell have taken their property off the market until it begins to pick up.

Miles Shipside, of Rightmove, said: “Not all properties marketed have to sell or stay on the market, with a percentage being withdrawn if they fail to find a buyer.

“There is still a clear imbalance between supply left on the market and demand even taking this into account. Demand is restricted by mortgage availability and potential buyers economic circumstances.”

However, sellers are refusing to lower their asking prices, boosting them by 3.1 per cent this month to an average of £230,000, according to survey.

Mr Shipside explained: “The number of forced sellers and repossessions are the key factor that drives down prices, and to date lenders have shown considerable forbearance in how they manage arrears and are wary of flooding some markets by putting lots of repossessions up for sale.”

Bu the added: “There will be individual circumstances, especially in the country’s unemployment black spots, where sellers have to sell. The tactics are to price below the other properties on the market.”

Nick Hopkinson, Director of PPR Estates, said: “With house sales volumes remaining on the floor even the estate agents acknowledge that current asking prices are more a reflection of home seller fantasy than what anyone else will really pay in 2011 for property across most of the UK."

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Shitslide - nothing to do with pricing then? The estate agents are whining though becuase their commission stream goes down the tubes when they are pusing unmarketable properties on an unwilling audience.

Edited by OnlyMe

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How many Halliwide reports in recent months have banged on about a lack of supply preventing price falls...? It was bloomin obvious people were waiting for the Spring and then the flood gates would open.

Anything in the comments to the article about the opening word being 'fear'?

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE%5E1712402&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=5.0

251 properties for sale found

5 mile radius of Saltdean in East Sussex (semi-urban, 7 miles East of Brighton)

And that is NEW listings in the last 14 days! And just on RM ( I am seeing Zoo[pla getting more byusiness lately as its cheaper) Its a massive flood and I am not seeing any sold or under offer signs.

Edited by Realistbear

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“Not all properties marketed have to sell or stay on the market, with a percentage being withdrawn if they fail to find a buyer.

...meaning they fail to find a buyer that will pay their price more like. ;)

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How many Halliwide reports in recent months have banged on about a lack of supply preventing price falls...? It was bloomin obvious people were waiting for the Spring and then the flood gates would open.

Anything in the comments to the article about the opening word being 'fear'?

Is this the reason for the rise in the Rightmove HP figures, all the new sellers expecting a spring bounce? I think they will be disappointed.

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However, sellers are refusing to lower their asking prices, boosting them by 3.1 per cent this month

This statement is false, it's just that price drops are not recorded on the Rightmove INITIAL ASKING PRICE figures. I am seeing loads of price drops in the last two months on Property Bee.

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http://www.telegraph...s-for-sale.html

Nick Hopkinson, Director of PPR Estates, said: “With house sales volumes remaining on the floor even the estate agents acknowledge that current asking prices are more a reflection of home seller fantasy than what anyone else will really pay in 2011 for property across most of the UK."

Wow - An EA that actually gets it and think other do as well!

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Figure for new listings on Rightmove, from the February 2011 index:

Rightmove measured 121,635 asking prices – circa 90% of the UK market. The properties were put on sale by estate agents from 9th January 2011 to 12th February 2011 and advertised on Rightmove.co.uk.

Also, note the following from the same report:

This month 14,169 properties have been excluded due to being anomalies. ( <_< )

Looking back at the February 2010 index, there were just over 90,000 new listings taken into account.

On an even weighted basis that's a rise of circa 30% year on year!

So supply increasing; demand is falling (lack of credit and cash progressively sidelining); transactions are low. This means that the refuseniks (who take their property off the market to temporarily reduce supply) can't keep up. They've lost the advantage, and will be sucked into a race to the bottom as economic headwinds begin to bite.

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Figure for new listings on Rightmove, from the February 2011 index:

Also, note the following from the same report:

Looking back at the February 2010 index, there were just over 90,000 new listings taken into account.

On an even weighted basis that's a rise of circa 30% year on year!

So supply increasing; demand is falling (lack of credit and cash progressively sidelining); transactions are low. This means that the refuseniks (who take their property off the market to temporarily reduce supply) can't keep up. They've lost the advantage, and will be sucked into a race to the bottom as economic headwinds begin to bite.

Yep, those taking their houses off the Market are being more than matched by surging new listings. They will have a very long wait until 'the Market picks up' it seems :)

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Yep, those taking their houses off the Market are being more than matched by surging new listings. They will have a very long wait until 'the Market picks up' it seems :)

Many of these people don't have time on their side. They're a growing band of retirees, looking to cash in (at the expense of the young, I might add). If they're sitting it out now or remove from the market at this point, they'll be shocked to find that they'll have to relist at a lower asking price in, say, six months time - and having to compete with more vendors. Estate Agents can't continue to overvalue, just to win the business, in this environment. Very little will sell and some EA's will be looking down the barrel.

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Yep, those taking their houses off the Market are being more than matched by surging new listings. They will have a very long wait until 'the Market picks up' it seems :)

Now don't get excited!

Apparently if the market doesn't just stagnate while wages catch up, the best we can hope for is 10-20% falls over the next 5-10 years :rolleyes:

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Many of these people don't have time on their side. They're a growing band of retirees, looking to cash in (at the expense of the young, I might add). If they're sitting it out now or remove from the market at this point, they'll be shocked to find that they'll have to relist at a lower asking price in, say, six months time - and having to compete with more vendors. Estate Agents can't continue to overvalue, just to win the business, in this environment. Very little will sell and some EA's will be looking down the barrel.

Three out of four houses i viewed over the weekend were old people selling to rent! Agents phoned this morning looking for feed back and asking if the price was too high :blink:

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Henry Pryor on his blog:

The chance of your home selling this year has fallen with less than 40% of sellers likely to find a buyer.

Sellers seem to completely have mis-read the housing market and increased asking prices at a time when sale prices are falling. Property web site Rightmove.co.uk which advertises about 90% of homes for sale say the average asking price quoted by estate agents of new homes added to the site in January rose by 3.1%.

Interestingly the average asking price of new homes coming onto the market in the ‘banker borough’ of Kensington & Chelsea rose 3% last month leaving them 3.3% below their New Year level in 2010.This is unusual since we have come to expect London to outperform the rest of the country in a classic ‘two-tier’ market. Asking prices rose 3.1% across England & Wales last month leaving vendor expectations almost exactly where they were at the start of last year.

Worryingly Rightmove saw 121,635 new homes come to the market, a 35% jump on last year. Volumes of sales have not risen by a similar amount leaving an over-hang of property for sale which will put downward pressure on sale prices. Rightmove’s latest report published today recorded a rise in asking prices last month of 3.1% to £230,030 suggesting the sellers have completely mis-read the market. Average sale prices recorded by the Land Registry published last month marked prices £68,846 lower at £163,184.

1.3m homes came onto the market in 2010 on top of the 730,000 that were already being advertised at the start of the previous year. HMRC recorded just 884,000 sales with 560,000 mortgages. Just 43% of sellers found a buyer last year and it looks like 2011 will be even tougher. We started the year with nearly 1 million homes on the market and with even more piling on the chances of your home selling this year looks like it will fall below 40%.

Chance of selling just 43% 21 February 2011

Source: http://web.me.com/henry.pryor/Housing_Expert/Comment/Entries/2011/2/21_Chance_of_selling_just_43.html

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Three out of four houses i viewed over the weekend were old people selling to rent! Agents phoned this morning looking for feed back and asking if the price was too high :blink:

Ask him if you could possibly have a

LIAR LOAN?

:rolleyes:

Edited by eric pebble

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Thanks for that Fellow, great news. :D

Shitslide - nothing to do with pricing then? The estate agents are whining though becuase their commission stream goes down the tubes when they are pusing unmarketable properties on an unwilling audience.

+ 1. Prices will fall this year. Period.

I hope estate agents wake up and work those sellers. They must reduce prices, and as soon as possible - before their neighbours reduce theirs. (It will be a race... :D )

How many Halliwide reports in recent months have banged on about a lack of supply preventing price falls...? It was bloomin obvious people were waiting for the Spring and then the flood gates would open.

Anything in the comments to the article about the opening word being 'fear'?

(...) And that is NEW listings in the last 14 days! And just on RM ( I am seeing Zoo[pla getting more byusiness lately as its cheaper) Its a massive flood and I am not seeing any sold or under offer signs.

:D

"A Pent-Up Supply Should Flood The Spring Market" :P

Just seen this story in the Telegraph.. HUGE now if only the BBC would get with the programme to indoctrinate the masses.

Good point.

Perhaps Stephanie Flanders will warn sellers about that... :rolleyes:

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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"Nick Hopkinson, Director of PPR Estates, said: “With house sales volumes remaining on the floor even the estate agents acknowledge that current asking prices are more a reflection of home seller fantasy than what anyone else will really pay in 2011 for property across most of the UK."

'Home seller fantasy'!!

I love it...

:lol::lol::lol:

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"Nick Hopkinson, Director of PPR Estates, said: “With house sales volumes remaining on the floor even the estate agents acknowledge that current asking prices are more a reflection of home seller fantasy than what anyone else will really pay in 2011 for property across most of the UK."

'Home seller fantasy'!!

I love it...

:lol::lol::lol:

+ 1

I've just realised that we have 2 news in 1 there:

1) Estate agents got it.

2) Estate agents are getting seriously p!ssed off with sellers! :lol:

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Lovely comment on this story from Nozick - almost worth a thread of its own...

noavatar32.pngnozickToday 09:26 AMRecommended by

22 peopleThis is what economists call "sticky prices". Prices should fall so that the market clears, but for labour and houses prices tend to be "sticky" - unemployed workers will not accept lower wages and house sellers will not accept lower prices.

People who think this is cost free, or that it can continue for ever, are very silly. The worker can't get a job and the house seller............isn't! They refuse to sell, can't move to their new job and so stick with their failing employer (thus landing in further trouble down the line), can't move to the new catchment area for their kids (thus condemning them to bunk beds and bad schools), can't move near their elderly parent, can't separate from their abusive partner.........They will happily make a hundred sub-optimal decisions rather than accept the reality of what their house is worth.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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