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The Fragile Recovery?

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I often read how the fragile recovery, both here and in the US can be easiy derailed,... BUT... have we had a recovery at all. Does printing billions of dollars and pounds actually constitute a recovery. My view is, it is only delaying the the re-balance that is needed. Once that takes place maybe then we can start rebuiling the economy. It seems to me we are trying to reconstruct on very wobbly foundations that look as though they are about to crumble I'm just wondering how much longer they can continue with this maddness, as our leaders seem to have a very different view of things.

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I often read how the fragile recovery, both here and in the US can be easiy derailed,... BUT... have we had a recovery at all.

We are not in a recovery. We are in a recession.

To use a medical analogy, the patient had a series of heart attacks and is still in the ICU.

When people talk about "recovery", I ask them what do they mean? It's just a word people hear all the time and go on to use without actually thinking about it.

"Fragile recovery" is just a way of confusing those who are 'hard of thinking'.

Strap in tight, it's going to get bumpy.

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We are only in a "technical" recovery.

A recession is defined as 2 quarters of negative growth, this definition was made up to get President Johnson out of a hole in the 60's, an economist made up the definition so that Johnson could go on tv and tell the American people that the US wasn't in recession.

However this definition is clearly flawed especially when you consider the US needs around 3% growth to create more jobs than they are losing. So even thought you have growth in the fudged GDP figures (which itself is a huge issue) you don't actually have job growth, which I would say still means we are in a recession.

There is no recovery, especially when you factor in the huge borrowings by national govts which is propping up the GDP figure. The economy is a debt junkie hooked on govt expenditure, once this beast is finally forced to cut spending the economic contraction will be very severe.

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There is no recovery, especially when you factor in the huge borrowings by national govts which is propping up the GDP figure.

The US deficit is 2.5 times GDP "growth". The UK proportion is even higher - about 5 times?

Only when the deficit is lower than growth can we be said to be in a real, sustainable recovery.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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