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Libya Heading Towards Civil War? Price Of Oil To Rocket?


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HOLA441

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12533069

Libya's leader, Muammar Gaddafi, has dismissed reports that he had fled amid the unrest sweeping the country, calling foreign news channels "dogs".

Speaking to state TV from outside a ruined building, he said "I am in Tripoli and not in Venezuela," after rumours that he had flown to Caracas.

Col Gaddafi's statement came after security forces and protesters clashed in the capital for a second night.

Not fled yet it would appear.

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HOLA442

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/8339955/Oil-shock-fears-as-Libya-erupts.html

"This is potentially worse for oil than the Iran crisis in 1979," said Paul Horsnell, head of oil research at Barclays Capital. "That was a revolution in one country, here there are so many countries at once. The world has only 4.5m barrels-per-day (bpd) of spare capacity, which is not comfortable."

US oil contracts jumped more than $7 a barrel on Tuesday morning to over $93, chasing Brent crude, which traded above $108, as the global oil system is drawn into the vortex.

While Egypt is a minor oil player, Libya's Sirte Basin holds Africa's largest reserves and supplies 1.4m bpd in exports, mostly to Italy, Germany and Spain.

Still at least it's not as bad as the oil crisis in the mid 70's.

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HOLA443

Yes and no.

Although North Africa as a whole is not a vast part of global production, and not anywhere near as important as the Gulf, there is nothing like the slack in the system there was in the 1970s. We've already retired the oil fired power plants and drained the North Sea, and the other areas that were meant to break OPEC's power, so now even small supply interruptions such as this can cause crises. Basically, we survived a heart attack, had the quadruple bypass surgery and then thought 'problem solved, back on the burgers..'.

Of course, if this all spreads to Iran and the gulf.. all I can say is : Buy a bike.

_51355745_photo.jpg

Edited by fluffy666
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HOLA444

I was reading some analysis earlier of the impact on the world economy of an increase in the oil price. For a given increase in it which was ten US dollars the economist Shaun Richards estimated the impact on world inflation and economic output. Then something caught my eye in the article which reminded me very much of the UK and our present situation.

The actual state of the economy in the first place also matters as for example one with pre-existing inflation is likely to be disproportionately affected by an oil price rise. Also if an oil price move is sudden and large (often called an oil price shock) it is likely to have a more substantial impact than a move gradual move.

http://t.co/O6MpJ0o

this made me think of the UK and our present situation.....

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HOLA445
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HOLA446

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358972/Libya-protests-Gaddafi-fled-Venezuela-air-force-attacks-civilians.html

A statement from Libyan state TV claimed reports of widespread bloodshed were 'baseless lies' by foreign media outlets.

'You should know that this is part of the psychological warfare, lies and rumours which you should resist because they are aimed at demolishing your morale, stability and blessings for which they envy you,' it read.

'Rumours are a poison which you should not drink. False news peddled by satellite TVs are arrows which you should deflect towards their throats.'

Got to love old school propaganda.

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HOLA447

Not even swordfish, they just have helicoptors according to this assessment, unless they have airwolf they are screwed against planes.

A couple of 50 year old Alouette III from the Libyian air force and a couple of Cesnas, no match for either spits of the swordfish I'm afraid. Now they've got a couple of Mirages!

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HOLA448
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HOLA449

Oh yeah, oh yeah, oh yeah, what's this I'm hearing...

"Borsa Italiana, the Italian exchange, failed to open as usual on Tuesday amid concerns in the Italian broking community about possible fallout from turmoil in Libya."

(technical probs apparently :rolleyes: )

Is that why Italian 10 year bond yields are soaring?

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411

He has been ranting on the box for the last 20 minutes blaming all the problems of Libya on the Libyan People whilst heaping praise on his sons and threatening his own people.

Fascinating.

Still ranting with a book in his hand now...

live link here....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Hague now speaking....HMS Cumberland heading for Libyan waters

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HOLA4412

He has been ranting on the box for the last 20 minutes blaming all the problems of Libya on the Libyan People whilst heaping praise on his sons and threatening his own people.

Fascinating.

Gaddffi has everything to lose now, a despot whose sole remaining aim is to save his own skin. He's like a cornered bear facing hunters. If he's driven from power and captured, he will almost certainly be killed, probably by public execution in front of an angry mob.

So it's not surprising if he decided to fight it out. He might think he's intimidated the opposition into silence, but what if they've organised themselves to such an extent that they can pressurise people into turning out to demonstrate?

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack
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HOLA4413

He has been ranting on the box for the last 20 minutes blaming all the problems of Libya on the Libyan People whilst heaping praise on his sons and threatening his own people.

Fascinating.

Yeah, I saw a bit of that. He sounds like a dog barking. The speech is delivered from what looks like a derelict building, and he rambles on about the Americans and Italians invading, then how Bin Laden wants to make the country an emirate, and he keeps calling the protestors cockroaches - presumably fit for extermination. Lot of emphasis on "your sons" being drunk and drugged, so he seems to be appealing to older people.

Heard an interesting bit on radio 4 today - some expert reckons there's a large community of Serb exiles in Tripoli who fled there after Milosevic got the chop. They are well capable of performing the extermination, and 20-30,000 deaths are in the cards if Gadaffi doesn't go away soon.

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HOLA4414

Yeah, I saw a bit of that. He sounds like a dog barking. The speech is delivered from what looks like a derelict building, and he rambles on about the Americans and Italians invading, then how Bin Laden wants to make the country an emirate, and he keeps calling the protestors cockroaches - presumably fit for extermination. Lot of emphasis on "your sons" being drunk and drugged, so he seems to be appealing to older people.

Heard an interesting bit on radio 4 today - some expert reckons there's a large community of Serb exiles in Tripoli who fled there after Milosevic got the chop. They are well capable of performing the extermination, and 20-30,000 deaths are in the cards if Gadaffi doesn't go away soon.

BBC reporter just confirming this that he has a lot of loyal supporters and mercanaries.

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HOLA4415

Enjoyed this interview regarding solar power vs oil. The sooner the ME loses the grip it has on the West the sooner they can revert back to their medieval lifestyle then everyone can be happy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/21/ray-kurzweill-climate-change

Q. You have made a prediction about the future of solar energy ...

A. One of my primary theses is that information technologies grow exponentially in capability and power and bandwidth and so on. If you buy an iPhone today, it's twice as good as two years ago for half the cost. That is happening with solar energy -- it is doubling every two years. And it didn't start two years ago, it started 20 years ago. Every two years, we have twice as much solar energy in the world.

Today, solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels, and in most situations it still needs subsidies or special circumstances, but the costs are coming down rapidly -- we are only a few years away from parity. And then it's going to keep coming down, and people will be gravitating towards solar, even if they don't care at all about the

environment, because of the economics.

So right now it's at half a percent of the world's energy. People tend to dismiss technologies when they are half a percent of the solution. But doubling every two years means it's only eight more doublings before it meets a 100 percent of the world's energy needs. So that's 16 years. We will increase our use of electricity during that period, so add another couple of doublings: In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.

People say we're running out of energy. That's only true if we stick with these old 19th-century technologies. We are awash in energy from the sunlight.

Q. In his recent State of the Union address, President Obama set a goal of running the country on 80 percent renewable energy by 2035, which is a little bit less ambitious than what you've suggested. Are you satisfied with the goal set by the president?

A. 2035 is 24 years. I am saying we can meet all our energy needs from solar in 20 years. It's actually pretty consistent with what I'm saying.

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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417

He has been ranting on the box for the last 20 minutes blaming all the problems of Libya on the Libyan People whilst heaping praise on his sons and threatening his own people.

Fascinating.

Is he right though?

I tend to think some of these Mid-East countries are populated by savages who need someone like Saddam to keep them in order.

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HOLA4418

Enjoyed this interview regarding solar power vs oil. The sooner the ME loses the grip it has on the West the sooner they can revert back to their medieval lifestyle then everyone can be happy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/21/ray-kurzweill-climate-change

Q. You have made a prediction about the future of solar energy ...

A. One of my primary theses is that information technologies grow exponentially in capability and power and bandwidth and so on. If you buy an iPhone today, it's twice as good as two years ago for half the cost. That is happening with solar energy -- it is doubling every two years. And it didn't start two years ago, it started 20 years ago. Every two years, we have twice as much solar energy in the world.

Today, solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels, and in most situations it still needs subsidies or special circumstances, but the costs are coming down rapidly -- we are only a few years away from parity. And then it's going to keep coming down, and people will be gravitating towards solar, even if they don't care at all about the

environment, because of the economics.

So right now it's at half a percent of the world's energy. People tend to dismiss technologies when they are half a percent of the solution. But doubling every two years means it's only eight more doublings before it meets a 100 percent of the world's energy needs. So that's 16 years. We will increase our use of electricity during that period, so add another couple of doublings: In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.

People say we're running out of energy. That's only true if we stick with these old 19th-century technologies. We are awash in energy from the sunlight.

Q. In his recent State of the Union address, President Obama set a goal of running the country on 80 percent renewable energy by 2035, which is a little bit less ambitious than what you've suggested. Are you satisfied with the goal set by the president?

A. 2035 is 24 years. I am saying we can meet all our energy needs from solar in 20 years. It's actually pretty consistent with what I'm saying.

Dont the Eurocrats want to fund solar farms in places like the deserts of libya to fuel europe anyway!?

Oil or Solar, a lot of its probably going to come from the same place.

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HOLA4419
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HOLA4420

I tend to think some of these Mid-East countries are populated by savages who need someone like Saddam to keep them in order.

I heard a totally serious Arab on Radio 4 saying just that. Arabs are unsuited to Western-style democracy and it won't work for them. Basically they don't believe in laws and don't obey laws just because it's the law. They obey while you threaten them but they don't buy into the Western mind-set that you have to obey all laws even ones you don't agree with because it's better to support the system and work within the system than trash it and end up with nobody obeying any laws.

In Islam only laws made by God count - and Islam is an Arab invention; it embodies their preferred way of living.

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HOLA4421

I heard a totally serious Arab on Radio 4 saying just that. Arabs are unsuited to Western-style democracy and it won't work for them. Basically they don't believe in laws and don't obey laws just because it's the law. They obey while you threaten them but they don't buy into the Western mind-set that you have to obey all laws even ones you don't agree with because it's better to support the system and work within the system than trash it and end up with nobody obeying any laws.

In Islam only laws made by God count - and Islam is an Arab invention; it embodies their preferred way of living.

Islam, Christianity and Judaism are all "Arab" inventions. All three of these monotheistic religions are cultural branchings of Abrahamism whose beginnings orininate in that part of the world from 2000 years ago.

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HOLA4422

The Wail have edited the piece but it had earlier reported Gaddifi had flown in "white" Russian mercenaries to quell the revolt at £18k a man.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110222052830AAXmrzL

The only reference I can now find is this, so maybe the story was a hoax, but if its true I can't see using the Russians will go down too well in his country.

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HOLA4423

The Wail have edited the piece but it had earlier reported Gaddifi had flown in "white" Russian mercenaries to quell the revolt at £18k a man.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110222052830AAXmrzL

The only reference I can now find is this, so maybe the story was a hoax, but if its true I can't see using the Russians will go down too well in his country.

Most of the mercenaries are from subsaharan Africa - the whites are mainly Ukranians and Serbs. There are strong ties between the Serbs and Libyans, but I don't know why. A relation of mine was in the FFL in N Africa and I remember him telling me he found all the tribal and international ties very tough to comprehend.

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HOLA4424

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/feb/22/libya-gaddafi-speech-reaction-live-updates

Some reports suggest white mercenaries have also been spotted fighting on Gaddafi's behalf. White South Africans who left the national army after the end of racial apartheid have been in demand for their expertise in various war zones, including Afghanistan and Iraq, but there is currently no evidence that any have joined the conflict in Libya.

It would seem the white mercenaries could be something made up, here they are South African. You would have to be pretty mad to accept money to get involved in this, if you got caught by the locals I doubt you'll be coming back alive.

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HOLA4425

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/feb/22/libya-gaddafi-speech-reaction-live-updates

It would seem the white mercenaries could be something made up, here they are South African. You would have to be pretty mad to accept money to get involved in this, if you got caught by the locals I doubt you'll be coming back alive.

Nope, I don't think it's made up. Have been in touch with a few Arab contacts and there are definitely white mercenaries on the ground in Libya. Local people have been attacking Serbian civilian workers in retribution (if indeed they are 'civilian' workers). There are a few thousand Serbs resident in Libya I understand.

Edited by gruffydd
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