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the stig

Andrew Marr Consensus House Prices 20% Overvalued

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I thought my ears were lying to me. Ken Livingstone and some woman i didn't recognise discussing an article that house prices are 20% overvalued.

The discussion then turned to the fact that the young are priced out and that buying for investment purposes "was always madness".

This is the first time i've heard this kind of sentiment from a BBC programme. A milestone IMO.

Now on iPlayer: link. Goto 12 mins 50 secs in.

Edited by the stig

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yes i heard it too. My jaw hit the duvet. The woman said high prices are bad and price out our children. Ken mentioned that 20 to 30% deposits are needed. Finished by saying investing in houses is crazy, look at spain. The worm has turned.

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And good old socialist Ken opens up the discussion by framing it as 'bad news' that house prices might drop.

Edited by Dak

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Few definite hints of change from the BBC recently. Even on Reporting Scotland they reported recent annual YOY rises as 'Cost of housing increasing' - rather than 'House prices increasing'.

Doesn't sound much - however IMO it is one of the most important aspects of all this. Even the most blatant VI's are gradually coming round to the fact that the cost of houses is simply too high. Slow going but at least it is eventually happening.

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Twenty percent overvalued my @rse. VI`s trying to convince ftbers that another 20% drop makes them affordable and is a good deal. They have tried everything else and now realise they cannot stop them from falling so are trying to minimise their losses. They need to fall over 50% from peak. Which they would have done already if the banks had not been put on life support with our money ffs!

Edited by Dan1

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Ken has always been "politician" first, "socialist politician" second.

His normal address is "RED" Ken - which might make a few of you feel a bit 'crabby'!

Ye ken!

the old verb for 'know' , the same as 'kennen' in German,

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lets hope this is'nt another false dawn. Then change in sentiment is staggering but it has all the pace of a super tanker changing direction.

please god no more QE, no more low interest rates.

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And good old socialist Ken opens up the discussion by framing it as 'bad news' that house prices might drop.

Exactly. Ken started by saying "one to strike fear into all our hearts", and blamed the Tory cuts for it:

It was the woman guest who turned it around. She was very good.

And Ken also misunderstood what she meant by seeing houses as investment. Ken thought she meant building new houses was bad, hence his Spanish comment.

Edit: They were commenting on this news: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/feb/19/house-price-fall-20-per-cent

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Few definite hints of change from the BBC recently. Even on Reporting Scotland they reported recent annual YOY rises as 'Cost of housing increasing' - rather than 'House prices increasing'.

Doesn't sound much - however IMO it is one of the most important aspects of all this. Even the most blatant VI's are gradually coming round to the fact that the cost of houses is simply too high. Slow going but at least it is eventually happening.

Good news from Scotland. I hope it gets to the English BBC as well, but I don't think that has happened yet. It was the woman guest, not Andrew Marr, who saved the day today.

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lets hope this is'nt another false dawn. Then change in sentiment is staggering but it has all the pace of a super tanker changing direction.

please god no more QE, no more low interest rates.

Once a super tanker gathers momentum it takes some stopping!

This is no false dawn. The tide has turned and even the boomers are coming around, fed up of funding deposits for their kids no doubt.

Real world interest rates, stop the press and back to reality.

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Alas, there is a reason why this dull programme is on so early on a Sunday morning - sod all people watch it.

This needs to be on The One Show and not in Sunday morning political TV oblivion.

I couldn't find the viewing numbers for it. It should be a few million, 2, 4?

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Alas, there is a reason why this dull programme is on so early on a Sunday morning - sod all people watch it.

This needs to be on The One Show and not in Sunday morning political TV oblivion.

Couple of million viewers isn't too shabby though - every little helps.

lets hope this is'nt another false dawn. Then change in sentiment is staggering but it has all the pace of a super tanker changing direction.

please god no more QE, no more low interest rates.

The change in attitudes was never going to be quick - just think how long the 'high prices good' mantra has had to become ingrained. The main thing is this shift is happening and is building momentum.

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Ye ken!

the old verb for 'know' , the same as 'kennen' in German,

So Ken's mother (or whoever named him) is in on the Illuminati sense of humour?

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This exchange on the Marr Show certainly woke me up. On reflection with a nice cup of coffee I find it deeply, deeply depressing. A complete moron could have see that the housing bubble would end in tears. Even Diane Abbott was talking about it a couple of years ago. And yet politicians like Ken Livingston and commentators like Mary Anne Seighart said absolutely nothing. Why? Because they were getting PERSONALLY rich from the who destructive process. Just because their properties in London are no longer skyrocketing and they've consoled themselves with living within the ample means of their large salaries they now wish to address one of the most disastrous episodes in modern British society. That craven lickspittle Marr just lets them get away with it - but I suppose he's got a portfolio of his own to worry about.

I understand our politicians are not allowed to buy and sell shares while in office. Perhaps this should be extended to all manner of other assets, particularly housing, especially as it seems to have been the basis of the worst abuses of the expenses system.

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Looking at this objectively, 20-30% is probably a bit on the low side (at one point I foresaw 70%).

However, splitting the difference, a 25% HPC in real terms over the next 10 years doesn't sound like a resounding victory for this website or its members.

For those who doubt me, read/listen to the statements of Grant Schapps, Cameron and Clegg.

As I've pointed out in another thread, prices are only modestly down from 2007 peak (in the "nice areas" we all aspire to call home), so in real terms have already declined somewhat. The inflationary environment over the coming years will bring this down further.

Don't take it out on me. I call what I see, good or bad.

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This exchange on the Marr Show certainly woke me up. On reflection with a nice cup of coffee I find it deeply, deeply depressing. A complete moron could have see that the housing bubble would end in tears. Even Diane Abbott was talking about it a couple of years ago. And yet politicians like Ken Livingston and commentators like Mary Anne Seighart said absolutely nothing. Why? Because they were getting PERSONALLY rich from the who destructive process. Just because their properties in London are no longer skyrocketing and they've consoled themselves with living within the ample means of their large salaries they now wish to address one of the most disastrous episodes in modern British society. That craven lickspittle Marr just lets them get away with it - but I suppose he's got a portfolio of his own to worry about.

I understand our politicians are not allowed to buy and sell shares while in office. Perhaps this should be extended to all manner of other assets, particularly housing, especially as it seems to have been the basis of the worst abuses of the expenses system.

Good post.

You may find these links interesting:

News: Paxman on £800,000/year, Marr on £600,000/year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358509/Andrew-Marr-600-000-year-payslip-slip-revealed.html

Discussion: Why the UK mainstream media didn't warn the population?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=159795

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Don't take it out on me. I call what I see, good or bad.

I do too. The chart is clear. The bounce did not take out the previous highs. What should that tell you? It is after all what you see. Also, NOTHING is now supportive of cost rises.

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Looking at this objectively, 20-30% is probably a bit on the low side (at one point I foresaw 70%).

However, splitting the difference, a 25% HPC in real terms over the next 10 years doesn't sound like a resounding victory for this website or its members.

For those who doubt me, read/listen to the statements of Grant Schapps, Cameron and Clegg.

As I've pointed out in another thread, prices are only modestly down from 2007 peak (in the "nice areas" we all aspire to call home), so in real terms have already declined somewhat. The inflationary environment over the coming years will bring this down further.

Don't take it out on me. I call what I see, good or bad.

Volumes are massively down though, prices never recovered,volumes just decreased? If volumes recovered to normal, prices would have to collapse in this credit environment? Stats based on abnormal volumes are meaningless, except as sentiment changers?

Edited by dances with sheeple

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I do too. The chart is clear. The bounce did not take out the previous highs. What should that tell you? It is after all what you see. Also, NOTHING is now supportive of cost rises.

House prices must adjust. However, a huge fall over a short period cannot be absorbed (see the policy response to the 20% fall in 2008/9), so all parties with influence over government/financial policy have agreed upon a largely real adjustment. This has probably agreed at international level at Davos or the equivalent.

They haven't even scratched the surface of the policy distortions they can use (HPI into CPI, QE, mortgage indemnity insurance, planning permission - just off the top of my head).

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House prices must adjust. However, a huge fall over a short period cannot be absorbed (see the policy response to the 20% fall in 2008/9), so all parties with influence over government/financial policy have agreed upon a largely real adjustment. This has probably agreed at international level at Davos or the equivalent.

They haven't even scratched the surface of the policy distortions they can use (HPI into CPI, QE, mortgage indemnity insurance, planning permission - just off the top of my head).

Those policies will allow the banks to survive and trade through when they let the big one rip (by putting up rates) millions will want to buy at 20,30,40% "off ", the banks have been grooming their good credit risks for the last three years. A "cheap" house will be the reward for low savings rates these last few years.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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