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Bubble: Experts' Warnings Since 2002/03. But The Whole Country Refused To Listen.


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HOLA441

My name is Shaneyson, I too am a closet realist. I knew there were more of us out there and felt that this group has allowed me to accept the way that I am.

Realistic and proud. Yes I know others seek to label me and marginalise me, they don't like me for what I am, the things I say and think. One day society will be ready to accept me and all my fellow realists and realise that deep down inside them no matter how much they don't like it, there is a realist bound gagged and struggling to get out.

:lol:

Brilliant. :lol:

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HOLA442

When did HPC start (The site before this one...)

hello baaabby...2003

http://web.archive.org/web/20031119011643/http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

2004 was when things really started rolling popularity wise

http://wayback.archive.org/web/20040815000000*/http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk

'Birth of Bubble' Boogie Edited by Saving For a Space Ship
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HOLA443

It wasn't that the Government and Financial industry didn't listen to the warning, they are not stupid... But without the bubble there was no economy!!!

The government of the day was working on being re-elected, the financial sector guys were working on their bonuses, the opposition were working on their portfolios and everyone connected was working on flipping and mewing,,, when did they have time to work on building a sustainable economic model???

The thing that I find most unbelievable is these same 'people' are still running the country and still in charge of the finance industry and they are telling me now that I have to pay for their indiscretions, that we are all in this togethere...?

I am ready for the revolution guys, they have seriously taken the pi55...

Thing is,,, even the people of Egypt can protest without being attacked by their own countrymen. If we try to protest, we are kettled and then systematically provoked/attacked by government backed thugs....

Running the show and still rampant on screen and stage eg. Greenspan on CNBC the other night. Instead of being thoroughly castigated and grilled on why he let the housing market and banks and interest rates run amok , he is still seen some sort of guru and treated with reverence. Sickening. The decrepid , amoral incompetent should be put up against a wall........

You are so right : in Egypt and even Indonesia you can get out there and protest from dawn til dusk. Try doing it in oh so democratic Britain and you are quizzed, filmed,kettled, smacked pushed and thumped by our cuddly bobbies. What a joke. Unfortunately , it's on you and me.

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HOLA444
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HOLA445

Intentional inflation of the housing market to keep consumers spending, why aren't members of the Bankrupt of England MPC on trial for directly setting up the conditions that led to the first bank runs in hundreds of years?

http://web.archive.org/web/20031030215837/http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,11268,1071334,00.html

In the October MPC meeting, King, now Governor, may well have cast the decisive vote to keep rates on hold. But the message coming out of last week's release of shock MPC minutes is clear: the Bank is within a whisker of hiking mortgage rates from their present 48-year lows. As the global economy picks up again, the Bank no longer needs to inflate the housing market just to keep consumers spending.

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HOLA446

Intentional inflation of the housing market to keep consumers spending, why aren't members of the Bankrupt of England MPC on trial for directly setting up the conditions that led to the first bank runs in hundreds of years?

http://web.archive.org/web/20031030215837/http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,11268,1071334,00.html

In the October MPC meeting, King, now Governor, may well have cast the decisive vote to keep rates on hold. But the message coming out of last week's release of shock MPC minutes is clear: the Bank is within a whisker of hiking mortgage rates from their present 48-year lows. As the global economy picks up again, the Bank no longer needs to inflate the housing market just to keep consumers spending.

Depressing.

Thanks for that OM.

And yet 2 months later in Dec 2003, Gordon Brown removed housing costs from the inflation index (CPI x RPI)...

Criminal.

This prevented the BoE from increasing rates in 2004 - a pre-electoral year, helping Labour wining the 2005 General Election, and Brown becoming PM just over a year afterwards.

And they've set up an inquiry about the crisis! Yay! . . . that will look at events from 2008 onwards . . . :angry:

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HOLA447

hello baaabby...2003

http://web.archive.org/web/20031119011643/http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

2004 was when things really started rolling popularity wise

http://wayback.archive.org/web/20040815000000*/http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk

'Birth of Bubble' Boogie

Reading some of those old threads is quite - well - almost moving. :unsure:

2004:

People buying property now are making a serious mistake because property prices are unlikely go up any higher, so why buy a property if property prices are not rising and leave themselves at risk of a serious correction in house prices? A long overdue correction in house prices will come about when the economy collapses causing people to realise how difficult it is to earn a living. That day will be shortly be with us. A crash is an absolute certainty.

IF you want solid proof that the market in your area has turned, keep a mental note of the properties for sale on your way to and from work. You'll be surprised at 2 things :

1) the amount for sale

2) The length of time they've been 'for sale' or 'sold' then 'for sale' again.

It suggests to me that the housing market has indeed peaked and that now it's just a waiting game as fewer and fewer people decide it's right to buy as the thought of taking a massive mortgage in a falling market becomes less appealing by the day.

With my fairly hefty deposit and my £20K salary I can JUST about afford a house as opposed to a flat, but buy I will not.

Economic growth reduced to a crude GDP figure does not give any indication of the quality of growth.

the only growth areas I see are in fortress-like shopping malls, sucking the life out of towns sellin largely chinese/sweatshop made tat to people buying with credit cards that aren't exactly paying the balance at the end of the month.

Not only are 80% of the jobs created in these ventures on or near the minumim wage, but they will be first to go when the easy money ends.

All so wrong, yet so right.

Also check out this piece by Andrew Oswald from 2002. (from HPC news blog archive)

Edited by ska_mna
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HOLA448

Depressing.

Thanks for that OM.

And yet 2 months later in Dec 2003, Gordon Brown removed housing costs from the inflation index (CPI x RPI)...

Criminal.

This prevented the BoE from increasing rates in 2004 - a pre-electoral year, helping Labour wining the 2005 General Election, and Brown becoming PM just over a year afterwards.

And they've set up an inquiry about the crisis! Yay! . . . that will look at events from 2008 onwards . . . :angry:

The Bankrupt of England could have rejected the CPI on the grounds of financial stablity - which they were responsible for.

Even with the CPI shift there was no excuse fro dropping rates again in 2003 and 2005. At no time did the lower limit get breached. Compared to now with persistent breaching of the upper limit they still continue to print and fix interst rates.

Worse they pandered to Brown and Blair so that Labour could buy the next election which set the seeds for the leadership of a criminally incompetent (and arguably insane) Brown as PM. An election bought and paid for by a supposedly "independant" Bankrupt of England.

Meddlers, raddlers and crooks paying for their own positions and entitlements, end of.

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HOLA449

The Bankrupt of England could have rejected the CPI on the grounds of financial stablity - which they were responsible for.

Even with the CPI shift there was no excuse fro dropping rates again in 2003 and 2005. At no time did the lower limit get breached. Compared to now with persistent breaching of the upper limit they still continue to print and fix interst rates.

Worse they pandered to Brown and Blair so that Labour could buy the next election which set the seeds for the leadership of a criminally incompetent (and arguably (obviously!) insane) Brown as PM. An election bought and paid for by a supposedly "independant" Bankrupt of England.

Meddlers, raddlers and crooks paying for their own positions and entitlements, end of.

I agree 100%. (Well, almost 100% - see my comment above, in bold.)

Plus the FSA - it could, should have regulated mortgages. That would have been an even more targeted tool to control the credit bubble, as "it all starts from a mortgage" (words of a financier, re. ALL new "creative" new financial products.)

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412
  • 10 months later...
12
HOLA4413

In another thread a poster wrote that only a couple of people "saw it coming":

This is not true. Some months ago TMT reminded us about...

I've found links for this old, 2003 report. A 10 pages special report. Main article "House of cards" ! :

"In this special report
* House of cards
* Acknowledgements (and links to even older related articles, many)
* Risky office affairs
* A boom out of step
* Castles in hot air
* Location, location, location
* Design flaws
* Heading for a brick wall
* Property prices: The next bubble to pop?"
http://www.economist.com/node/1812326' rel="external nofollow">

The truth is, the whole country refused to listen, including the government, the monetary authorities (FSA and BoE), the opposition, virtually all the mainstream media (both TV and press, both commercial and the BBC), and also including most of our friends, relatives, acquaintances and colleagues when we tried to explain to them what was happening. We all have many personal experiences about that. Don't we?

The whole country just refused to listen. It was a typical bubble behaviour, collective manic behaviour, on a national scale.

The whole country had plenty of warnings, but people just refused to listen, preferring to believe that money grew on trees houses !

( PS: The FT also had many articles on the bubble, including many from Martin Wolf. )

April 2013 now, next month will be the 10 year anniversary of that special report.

And the country still doesn't understand what happened, nor what is still happening: a credit/asset/house prices bubble.

Unfeckingbelievable.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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HOLA4414

:rolleyes::rolleyes: So true! Buying and selling property and getting out before the Ponzi/Pyramid collapsed was and still is THE RAISON D'ETRE of LIFE here in the UK - and elsewhere. Life REVOLVES around the "value" of property. It is sickening.

Those not out by now though are screwed, and that will be a LOT of sheeple, even prime London, when it does pop, will go quickly, literally overnight?

:lol: Just noticed the date on the thread.

Edited by dances with sheeple
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HOLA4415

Those not out by now though are screwed, and that will be a LOT of sheeple, even prime London, when it does pop, will go quickly, literally overnight?

:lol: Just noticed the date on the thread.

A friend of mine with BTL properties in Peterborough still advises getting into 'bricks and mortar'.

I will admit to starting to think he is right. There is no-where else for money to go where there is so much determination to sustain prices. He is also a lot better off than I am, and definitely got into BTL at the right time, around 10 years ago.

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HOLA4416

Just to give you an idea of how it could be. My mum has just sold her house.... in the West of France. Paid 160K, spent 40K on works. This in 2008. Sold today for 70K, if it completes. Only 1 offer in 12 months.

She actually bought the house behind my back after I'd warned her not to "invest" in French property. She thought she was going to sell it for half a million once the works were finished.

-- she's an avid Homes Under the Hammer and Phil and Krusty fan.

Edited by davidg
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HOLA4417

A friend of mine with BTL properties holding gold in Peterborough still advises getting into 'bricks and mortar'. gold

I will admit to starting to think he is right. There is no-where else for money to go where there is so much determination to sustain prices. He is also a lot better off than I am, and definitely got into BTL gold at the right time, around 10 years ago.

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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419

The mind-bogging is the date of those reports linked at the OP: 10 years old next month.

And yet we find ourselves with 'help to buy'??

House prices will come back to haunt the current generation of politicians, but unfortunately they have (themselves) allowed the New Labour Project to get away scot free....

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HOLA4420

Just to give you an idea of how it could be. My mum has just sold her house.... in the West of France. Paid 160K, spent 40K on works. This in 2008. Sold today for 70K, if it completes. Only 1 offer in 12 months.

She actually bought the house behind my back after I'd warned her not to "invest" in French property. She thought she was going to sell it for half a million once the works were finished.

-- she's an avid Homes Under the Hammer and Phil and Krusty fan.

:o:rolleyes::rolleyes:

As I've related several times in the last year or 2....

I know of several people who haven't been able to sell.

One v good friend's parents house [they died 3 eyars ago] - ......

"desirable" - in West Country - [now needs a bit of tender loving care...] -

STILL HASN'T SOLD -- AFTER 3 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You just don't hear about the large numbers of cases like this -- the VI MSM liar machine DOESN'T TELL YOU ABUT THIS.... :rolleyes:

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HOLA4421

:o:rolleyes::rolleyes:

As I've related several times in the last year or 2....

I know of several people who haven't been able to sell.

One v good friend's parents house [they died 3 eyars ago] - ......

"desirable" - in West Country - [now needs a bit of tender loving care...] -

STILL HASN'T SOLD -- AFTER 3 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You just don't hear about the large numbers of cases like this -- the VI MSM liar machine DOESN'T TELL YOU ABUT THIS.... :rolleyes:

No, the MSM won`t dwell too much on this, but everyone knows someone who will just never shift therir house now without sizeable price reductions. Sentiment is turning IMO.

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