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Tired of Waiting

Bubble: Experts' Warnings Since 2002/03. But The Whole Country Refused To Listen.

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In another thread a poster wrote that only a couple of people "saw it coming":

(...) The only two experts who I am aware of who vocally predicted the housing boom was just a bubble doomed to implosion (through either talks, articles or books), were Peter Schiff and Richard Duncan.

This is not true. Some months ago TMT reminded us about...

(...) the 10 page global housing bubble Economist article from 2003. Brilliant article explaining why global house prices were in a massive bubble and were soon to collapse. (...)

I've found links for this old, 2003 report. A 10 pages special report. Main article "House of cards" ! :

"In this special report
* House of cards
* Acknowledgements (and links to even older related articles, many)
* Risky office affairs
* A boom out of step
* Castles in hot air
* Location, location, location
* Design flaws
* Heading for a brick wall
* Property prices: The next bubble to pop?"
http://www.economist.com/node/1812326' rel="external nofollow">

The truth is, the whole country refused to listen, including the government, the monetary authorities (FSA and BoE), the opposition, virtually all the mainstream media (both TV and press, both commercial and the BBC), and also including most of our friends, relatives, acquaintances and colleagues when we tried to explain to them what was happening. We all have many personal experiences about that. Don't we?

The whole country just refused to listen. It was a typical bubble behaviour, collective manic behaviour, on a national scale.

The whole country had plenty of warnings, but people just refused to listen, preferring to believe that money grew on trees houses !

( PS: The FT also had many articles on the bubble, including many from Martin Wolf. )

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Someone with a suspicious mind might even think that it has proved an excellent way to bankrupt supposedly sovereign nations, destroy much of the working and middle classes in the US and Europe, and set the scene for a global power grab by bankers through a one-world currency under their control.

But you would have to be seriously deluded to think anything like that, wouldn't you? :ph34r:

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Someone with a suspicious mind might even think that it has proved an excellent way to bankrupt supposedly sovereign nations, destroy much of the working and middle classes in the US and Europe, and set the scene for a global power grab by bankers through a one-world currency under their control.

The real "bankers", the banks' owners, lost virtually everything:

Lloyds, 10 years:

lloyds10years.png

(source: yahoo finance)

It was a monumental c0ck-up, of historical dimensions. Collective incompetence. You greatly over-estimate the elites' co-ordination capabilities. It is a dog eat dog up there.

Besides, capitalists do NOT want a global government. Nor should we. Imagine a Gordon Brown type leader of the world. :ph34r: It is vital for citizens to have options.

But you would have to be seriously deluded to think anything like that, wouldn't you? :ph34r:

Yes.

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It wasn't that the Government and Financial industry didn't listen to the warning, they are not stupid... But without the bubble there was no economy!!!

The government of the day was working on being re-elected, the financial sector guys were working on their bonuses, the opposition were working on their portfolios and everyone connected was working on flipping and mewing,,, when did they have time to work on building a sustainable economic model???

The thing that I find most unbelievable is these same 'people' are still running the country and still in charge of the finance industry and they are telling me now that I have to pay for their indiscretions, that we are all in this togethere...?

I am ready for the revolution guys, they have seriously taken the pi55...

Thing is,,, even the people of Egypt can protest without being attacked by their own countrymen. If we try to protest, we are kettled and then systematically provoked/attacked by government backed thugs....

Edited by Bingo

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In another thread a poster wrote that only a couple of people "saw it coming":

This is not true. Some months ago TMT reminded us about...

I've found links for this old, 2003 report. A 10 pages special report. Main article "House of cards":

"In this special report
* House of cards
* Acknowledgements (and links to even older related articles, many)
* Risky office affairs
* A boom out of step
* Castles in hot air
* Location, location, location
* Design flaws
* Heading for a brick wall
* Property prices: The next bubble to pop?"
http://www.economist.com/node/1812326' rel="external nofollow">

The truth is, the whole country refused to listen, including the government, the monetary authorities (FSA and BoE), the opposition, virtually all the mainstream media (both TV and press, both commercial and the BBC), and also including most of our friends, relatives, acquaintances and colleagues when we tried to explain to them what was happening. We all have many personal experiences about that. Don't we?

The whole country just refused to listen. It was a typical bubble behaviour, collective manic behaviour, on a national scale.

The whole country had plenty of warnings, but people just refused to listen, preferring to believe that money grew on trees houses !

( PS: The FT also had many articles on the bubble, including many from Martin Wolf. )

.

Didn't a bunch of "doom mongering amateur economists" get a website together about 2003? Anyone remember them?

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It wasn't that the Government and Financial industry didn't listen to the warning, they are not stupid... But without the bubble there was no economy!!!

The government of the day was working on being re-elected, the financial sector guys were working on their bonuses, the opposition were working on their portfolios and everyone connected was working on flipping and mewing,,, when did they have time to work on building a sustainable economic model???

:rolleyes::rolleyes: So true! Buying and selling property and getting out before the Ponzi/Pyramid collapsed was and still is THE RAISON D'ETRE of LIFE here in the UK - and elsewhere. Life REVOLVES around the "value" of property. It is sickening.

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It wasn't that the Government and Financial industry didn't listen to the warning, they are not stupid... But without the bubble there was no economy!!!

The government of the day was working on being re-elected, the financial sector guys were working on their bonuses, the opposition were working on their portfolios and everyone connected was working on flipping and mewing,,, when did they have time to work on building a sustainable economic model???

Sure! I agree with all that!

But why the people went along with it? Why the warnings from technical publications (FT, The Economist) kept falling on deaf years?

My hypothesis here is: the people was happy with it, and preferred to believe that money grew on trees houses.

And why the commercial media, both TV and the press, went along with it? IMPO, because it made more commercial sense not to look like a party popper.

But then why did the BBC go along with it?! Well... I don't know.

Incompetence? Editors owned London properties? I really don't know. But they were a major culprits here. A democracy can't work well without a good press. In America the press is called "the 4th power", and they do have a point.

The thing that I find most unbelievable is these same 'people' are still running the country and still in charge of the finance industry and they are telling me now that I have to pay for their indiscretions, that we are all in this togethere...?

I am ready for the revolution guys, they have seriously taken the pi55...

Thing is,,, even the people of Egypt can protest without being attacked by their own countrymen. If we try to protest, we are kettled and then systematically provoked/attacked by government backed thugs....

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Sure! I agree with all that!

But why the people went along with it? Why the warnings from technical publications (FT, The Economist) kept falling on deaf years?

My hypothesis here is: the people was happy with it, and preferred to believe that money grew on trees houses.

And why the commercial media, both TV and the press, went along with it? IMPO, because it made more commercial sense not to look like a party popper.

But then why did the BBC go along with it?! Well... I don't know.

Incompetence? Editors owned London properties? I really don't know. But they were a major culprits here. A democracy can't work well without a good press. In America the press is called "the 4th power", and they do have a point.

I had a conversation with a property developer in 2006 and explained to him that I was waiting on house prices coming down, he laughed and said 'that is never going to happen'... and this was the mentality at the time. Everyone thought the party would last forever, they wanted to believe it. They thought the government were wonderful... Just cast your mind back, it was frustrating, everyone just laughed at us....

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:rolleyes::rolleyes: So true! Buying and selling property and getting out before the Ponzi/Pyramid collapsed was and still is THE RAISON D'ETRE of LIFE here in the UK - and elsewhere. Life REVOLVES around the "value" of property. It is sickening.

goes a lot deeper than this. the MSM are otterly clueless about the damage their bubble has done.

It was a one in a lifetime opportunity for companies to gain from planning gain - shutting down their factories here, setting them up abroad all paid for (and more) by their brownfield windfall - in fact they may have been stupid not to considering the policy of expensive land and expensive living costs continues. Any stragglers may have time to make hay yet.

Those jobs are never coming back no matter how much the idiots try and rebalance the economy by destroying the currency and throwing more debt to maintain those very imbalances that are the root cause of the problem.

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Someone with a suspicious mind might even think that it has proved an excellent way to bankrupt supposedly sovereign nations, destroy much of the working and middle classes in the US and Europe, and set the scene for a global power grab by bankers through a one-world currency under their control.

But you would have to be seriously deluded to think anything like that, wouldn't you? :ph34r:

world_coin.jpg

post-22951-0-98958700-1298115624_thumb.jpg

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(...)

It was a one in a lifetime opportunity for companies to gain from planning gain - shutting down their factories here, setting them up abroad all paid for (and more) by their brownfield windfall - (...)

Wow! I had never thought or read that before OM. I think you have a very important new angle there. "Respec"! :)

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I have to disagree with the statement "The whole country refused to listen". The reality is that they weren't told. The entire populous dosn't read technical financial publications so relies on the mainstream media to keep them informed.

I think that the reality is that people didn't really expect prices to keep climbing exponentially but that prices would simply hit a peak and stay there for several years. People don't know enough about financial bubbles (I certainly didn't) to realise what was going on.

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In another thread a poster wrote that only a couple of people "saw it coming":

* Property prices: The next bubble to pop?"
http://www.economist.com/node/1812326' rel="external nofollow">

Clicked through to this article dated May 29th 2003 and found this last paragraph rather prescient:

*** SNIP

Even so, the housing market may not have a sudden big crash, as the stockmarket has. Instead, house prices are more likely to slide slowly down over the next four years. With the global economy already so fragile, and some countries poised on the brink of deflation, the result will be uncomfortable at best—and painful at worst. But that is what happens when bubbles are blown up and burst.

*** END OF SNIP

Looks like this is now what is happening ... 8 years late but I feel (and visible evidence and sentiment from RM/PB and the MSM shows it imo) that this is where we are.

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Wow! I had never thought or read that before OM. I think you have a very important new angle there. "Respec"! :)

Works wonderfully for the large companies as they have the clout to get beneficial terms where they move to, resources to fill in gaps in production and existing knowledge of having done the same before. If small single factory sites get into trouble they have the same get out - in fact they may just want to sell up because jettisoning the company would be worth 10/20/30 years of profit - somewhat of a no-brainer, especially if you see competition causing problems down the line. Of course once the link with this planning gain is made that site is doomed as no other business is going to take on the facilities because of the high price tag, it has immediately made any other use for the site uneconomic.

That is why although the 90's were bad and there was a recession the number of factory losses was not actually too bad - there was still a decent spread of manufacturing left across a broad range of markets in the late 90's. In a way the factories had to work through it and make a go of it because that was the only way to sweat the assets and existing investment.

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No more boom and bust!

The implication only boom.

Locally, I've seen a lot of factories (wealth creators/jobs) closing down to be replaced by housing estates, the other favourite seems to be playing fields for housing and supermarkets.

It has been a charade based on a charade.

When I fond this site (2005?) it was because I sensed something was very wrong... a 2-up, 2-down terrace once 30k hitting 100k wasn't right.

I get some satisfaction being told (re the economy) 'that's what you were saying years ago.'

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http://renegadeecono...brown-read.html

The Downing Street Letters… that Gordon Brown doesn't want you to read

In 1997 Fred Harrison wrote to Tony Blair and his Ministers: "I am your worst nightmare. I know exactly why New Labour will fail".

For ten years Harrison identified for Gordon Brown the policies that could prevent the next boom bust.

Brown failed to adopt the reforms.

Instead, he fostered the state of denial that led Blair's spin doctor, Alistair Campbell to write: "Dear Fred, I am a little bemused as to why you believe this country's economic policy is 'a shambles'."

Brown and his Chancellor Alistair Darling, through the strategies in their budget on Wednesday, are using the same technique to camouflage the policy failures that will deepen the depression.

The Renegade Economist team is releasing the letters that the Prime Minister doesn't want you to read because they establish his guilt as the architect of the worst recession in Britain since the 1930's. Read and judge for yourselves.

The 'Downing Street Letters' letters have been posted on HPC before, but for those of you who missed them:

http://renegadeecono...ist-letters.pdf

Contains such 24CT GOLDEN NUGGETS as: [page 9]

4th November 1997

10 Downing Street.

Alistair,

..........New Labour did not choose to respond to my invitation to assist in developing a new fiscal strategy.......

The Result however is an economic strategy that will fail, there will be a housing boom and bust in this parliament, and an even greater one in the next parliament.......

Yours Sincerely,

Fred Harrison

Do not expect to see this on Newsnight or the BBC though.

The evidence gives real credence to the supporters of the theories that 'it was all done on purpose' to keep the masses in their place.

F@cking Amazing isnt it?

Brown, Blair Campbell, Mandelson etc should be hung from Tower Bridge

Edited by Dan1

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Do not expect to see this on Newsnight or the BBC though.

The evidence gives real credence to the supporters of the theories that 'it was all done on purpose' to keep the masses in their place.

F@cking Amazing isnt it?

Brown, Blair Campbell, Mandelson etc should be hung from Tower Bridge

It was VERY clear by 2003. See below.

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In another thread a poster wrote that only a couple of people "saw it coming":

This is not true. Some months ago TMT reminded us about...

I've found links for this old, 2003 report. A 10 pages special report. Main article "House of cards" ! :

"In this special report
* House of cards
* Acknowledgements (and links to even older related articles, many)
* Risky office affairs
* A boom out of step
* Castles in hot air
* Location, location, location
* Design flaws
* Heading for a brick wall
* Property prices: The next bubble to pop?"
http://www.economist.com/node/1812326' rel="external nofollow">

The truth is, the whole country refused to listen, including the government, the monetary authorities (FSA and BoE), the opposition, virtually all the mainstream media (both TV and press, both commercial and the BBC), and also including most of our friends, relatives, acquaintances and colleagues when we tried to explain to them what was happening. We all have many personal experiences about that. Don't we?

The whole country just refused to listen. It was a typical bubble behaviour, collective manic behaviour, on a national scale.

The whole country had plenty of warnings, but people just refused to listen, preferring to believe that money grew on trees houses !

( PS: The FT also had many articles on the bubble, including many from Martin Wolf. )

.

You have no understanding of how propaganda works, yes you can find examples in the msm media of them warning about disaster, of course, but the vast majority of the articles were " houses prices can only go one way" and boom and bust is over" " Gordan Browns an economic genius", at a ratio of about 70/1.

"If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth. "

— Joseph Goebbels

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The real "bankers", the banks' owners, lost virtually everything:

Lloyds, 10 years:

lloyds10years.png

(source: yahoo finance)

It was a monumental c0ck-up, of historical dimensions. Collective incompetence. You greatly over-estimate the elites' co-ordination capabilities. It is a dog eat dog up there.

Besides, capitalists do NOT want a global government. Nor should we. Imagine a Gordon Brown type leader of the world. :ph34r: It is vital for citizens to have options.

Yes.

"There had been previous speculation that Mr Brown might aim for a major job at the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund when he leaves Downing Street.! :ph34r:

IMF = ruBBing shoulders with the shadowy 'underworld' who 're-fund' countries into years of usury paybacks on any borrowings (the interest of which can and is raised at any time prolonging misery of the poorest!)

Check out the IMF 'funding' histories in African and Sarf American countries!

Edited by erranta

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I have to disagree with the statement "The whole country refused to listen". The reality is that they weren't told. The entire populous dosn't read technical financial publications so relies on the mainstream media to keep them informed.

But that is precisely why my main critique was against the mainstream media, particularly the BBC, for failing to transmit, and translate, this information to the general public.

But there was also a resistance from the part of said populous to listen to the truth - tha money do not grow in trees houses. many of us have tried to explain the bubble to friends, relatives, colleagues, etc, and have experienced this resistance first hand. Haven't you? (From either side of the conversation? ;) )

I think that the reality is that people didn't really expect prices to keep climbing exponentially but that prices would simply hit a peak and stay there for several years. People don't know enough about financial bubbles (I certainly didn't) to realise what was going on.

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I knew things did not add up end of 2003/2004....when I saw people I knew getting large loans using the equity in their own homes to buy flats to rent out, paying only the interest back.....these people did not earn good money some were not even working. ;)

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It wasn't that the Government and Financial industry didn't listen to the warning, they are not stupid... But without the bubble there was no economy!!!

The government of the day was working on being re-elected, the financial sector guys were working on their bonuses, the opposition were working on their portfolios and everyone connected was working on flipping and mewing,,, when did they have time to work on building a sustainable economic model???

....and millions of UK citizens wanted their house to make them wealthy without working

At the political base of the beast was the classic pathology of an electorate relentlessly voting itself a freebie

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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