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exiges

Mortgage Approvals Down

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Interestingly, the media are saying mortgage approvals are "flat", when in fact last January approvals were 20% higher (48,000) and were described as at the time as having "slumped to low". It's the spring bounce in full effect !

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/18/britain-mortgages-idUSLAC00580820110218

Feb 18 (Reuters) - Britain's major lenders approved 41,000 mortgages for house purchase in January, the Bank of England said on Friday, the same number as in December and a further sign that the housing market remains in the doldrums. The BoE, updating its Trends in Lending statistics, said net mortgage lending picked up slightly in January to 1.2 billion pounds ($1.94 billion) from 0.9 billion pounds in December.
Edited by exiges

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Interestingly, the media are saying mortgage approvals are "flat", when in fact last January approvals were 20% higher (48,000) and were described as at the time as having "slumped to low"

http://www.reuters.c...C00580820110218

That's YoY.

MoM I think is actually a slight rise, unless the Dec figures have been adjusted from 40,000 to 41,000

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/other/monetary/LendingToUKBusinessesAndIndividualsJanuary2011.xls

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That's YoY.

MoM I think is actually a slight rise

YoY is the "best" comparison due to seasonal adjustment nonsense..

That said one would expect December to always be much lower than January, as people are busy doing Christmas.. and last Christmas we had diabolical weather which was to blame .. so now we're in January one would expect a big increase.. but no, so what excuse do they have now ?

Edited by exiges

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Seasonally adjusted mortgage lending for house purchase by the major lenders was only £4.7bn in Jan, the first time it’s been below £5bn since Jun 2009.

Meanwhile remortgaging jumped to £4.1bn, the highest since Mar 2009.

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YoY is the "best" comparison due to seasonal adjustment nonsense..

That said one would expect December to always be much lower than January, as people are busy doing Christmas.. and last Christmas we had diabolical weather which was to blame .. so now we're in January one would expect a big increase.. but no, so what excuse do they have now ?

In this case comparing yoy is not a great comparison as stamp duty was re introduced in January 2010 many people brought forward purchases to December 09 and so January was much quieter than usual. And so far it looks like this January is even worse!

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December must have been revised up to 41k. So it's the same as December.

But I thought it was the snow wat dun it?!

The initial Jan figure is up on the initial Dec figure...

And these are approvals - the sales will have been agreed a month or two prior, so snow might be an issue.

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Seasonally adjusted mortgage lending for house purchase by the major lenders was only £4.7bn in Jan, the first time it’s been below £5bn since Jun 2009.

Meanwhile remortgaging jumped to £4.1bn, the highest since Mar 2009.

What was the actual number of approvals this month and in December? Do you have a link to the release? Can't find it!

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Forex comedy gold says they were adjusted up to 43k.

The previous on FF represents the 'final' figure. Prelim figures are consistently being revised up by 3K each month. One of the sources must be a little slow in giving their data.

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What was the actual number of approvals this month and in December? Do you have a link to the release? Can't find it!

This is any good ? http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/other/monetary/LendingToUKBusinessesandindividualsFebruary2011.xls

In other news, it's not looking too clever over at the business lending end of things:

Net Funds Raised By UK Business:

34i4umx.gif

Edited by exiges

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Pretty obvious prices are way too high. Sentiment is turning and the market is grinding to halt as vendors will not reduce prices. Expect slow grind downwards and slowly increasing mortgage approvals once prices start to fall.

EA will have to start pushing vendors to reduce prices if they want to survive.

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EA will have to start pushing vendors to reduce prices if they want to survive.

That's like asking someone to jump off a cliff. The only good way to achieve it is to push them (interest rate rises)

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That's like asking someone to jump off a cliff. The only good way to achieve it is to push them (interest rate rises)

Not a good analogy I would say. There is no benefit of making the jump off a cliff, whereas it is possible there is a benefit of selling your house at a lower price.

How about asking them to jump out of a second floor window when the building is on fire as a better one?

You might think the fire will be put out before you have to jump, or you might be persuaded by a kindly "expert" to jump into the nice soft patch of earth under the window.

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What was the actual number of approvals this month and in December? Do you have a link to the release? Can't find it!

Interesting January figures:

Money for house purchase down 5.3 --> 4.7bn

Money fro remortgage up 3.0 --> 4.1 bn

Gross Lending 8.6 --> 9.6bn but 9.4bn is the 2010 average and 9.6 is only 46% of the peak value

Net Lending 0.9 -->1.2 but 2010 average was 1.5 (20% of the peak so they are still effectively trying to shrink the book)

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Not a good analogy I would say. There is no benefit of making the jump off a cliff, whereas it is possible there is a benefit of selling your house at a lower price.

But when people are in negative equity, getting them to sell is a jump from an unrealised loss (no pain) to one that is realised (pain), people won't do it without a good reason, preferring to weather the storm.

The only way to get people moving is to push them.

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But when people are in negative equity, getting them to sell is a jump from an unrealised loss (no pain) to one that is realised (pain), people won't do it without a good reason, preferring to weather the storm.

The only way to get people moving is to push them.

Not everyone is in Negative Equity.

Those in NE can't really sell anyway. They will have to be pushed, I agree, but to class them in the same boat as someone with money who is moving up the "ladder", or a probate sale, or a person emigrating, or moving to another area (e.g. a cheaper one) is not valid in my view. these others will have to make a decision on whether they sell at a reduced price or ride it out. In that respect, now the media has decided that talking the economy down is OK with a new govt, sentiment could drive prices down.

edit for a bit of grammar

Further edit: It is worth pointing out also (to bolster your side of the argument a little), that people in NE are not the only non movers. With the high cost of moving, of Stamp Duty etc, even a reasonable amount of equity may not be enough to allow people to move to another house, particularly if they will need a larger deposit.

Edited by bobthe~

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Nice little nugget from the BBC website

This reflected the "sluggish" state of the UK economy as a whole, as well as a lack of demand, it added.

So, the supply and demand argument unravels a little more.

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Seasonally adjusted mortgage lending for house purchase by the major lenders was only £4.7bn in Jan, the first time it’s been below £5bn since Jun 2009.

Meanwhile remortgaging jumped to £4.1bn, the highest since Mar 2009.

Is this change before boe changes policy direction ?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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