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If Potential Ftb's Banded Together, Could We Crash The Market?


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To the OP, the FTB's are implicitly banding together in an informal way as they have recognised that prices are too high relative to income and have recognised that this is not a good time to buy.

The collective result of these individual actions has resulted in a buyer's "work to rule" campaign rather than a strike but it is enough to force prices lower over time.

Markets can remain irrational for very long periods of time but never do so forever. This irrational market episode is drawing to a close.

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Anyway my girlfriend is still insistant she wants to buy straight away, instead of renting for a few years and waiting for the expected price drop, prices dont have room to rise much further so there is no rush to buy, and monthly outgoings on rent are cheaper. She however can not be reasoned with , she must buy, she wont raise kids in a rented home..its been drummed into her buy society.

Yes, this is the kind of thing we're up against. The tide is slowly turning, but it could do with a helping hand, it won't be easy but would be ultimately worthwhile.

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What I didn't realise is - We were up against a VERY sophisticated VI PR machine - that managed to get house prices taken out of inflation figures [!!! :angry: ] --- and that managed to persuade all and sundry that all was OK - and yet - FRAUD was/still is behind the whole HPI scam. AND - I didn't realise what a MORON a certain G Broon - who was in charge - was such a USELESS and criminally culpable "Chancellor" and "PM". :rolleyes:

Absolutely. Thankfully, one part of that equation has gone, the new goverment seem less inclined to propping up the housing market. All we need to do now is try to counter the VI PR machine and try to convert the sentiment of those most affected. It won't be easy, but there's no harm in trying!

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The market hasn't crashed, it has stalled. If it has crashed, where are the massive price drops, hordes of desperate sellers trying to get out?

-1

The crash HAS started.

Current status: DENIAL

"Why isn't my house selling? "

"What's wrong with it?"

"Why haven't we had many viewers?"

"Ok I'll drop it £10k that should sell it, but that's it!"

"Oh it still hasn't sold, but I'm not dropping it more, it's worth the price I'm asking! It's the Estate Agents fault for not working hard enough!"

"My next door neighbour has just put their property on for £100k more, and mine is still not selling, what's going on?"

"Great we've finally sold ....oh they couldn't get a mortgage???"

It's a cycle. Next up, interest rate rises...

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Shock vids, short format - covering areas that the young already know they are being screwed over on and ones that they don't - they can then make the connection, if a few ring true then they all will.

e.g

A take on "It could be you", reverse the fingers so they are truly being given the two fingered salute.

Obvious one - student fees. - It could be you - quote the odds of winning the jackpot - 14m odd to one then the odds of having to fork out for a qualitification costing £10k's that will get you a job no better than an A level dropout a few years ago.

Another - housing, bedsit, 30's - + odds again.

Retirement - Gone, working till 70's - chances of being dead first - pretty damned high in a failing economy.

Biological clock - birth defects, no children, no normal family life. Gnerational outcasts.

Money - globalisation - sold down the river, permanent temporary employment through their lifetime.

Make them really hard hitting and to the point.

Nice idea. Obviously, they could be hosted on You Tube, but how could they be publicised? Has anybody reading this got any experience of making this kind of thing? Any experience in marketing/advertising?

The kind of thing I have in mind to publicise it is this:

http://www.snopes.com/photos/politics/missmeyet.asp

Althought there'd be a bit of financial outlay, I'm sure a group of hpc'ers, could fund it, or try to persuade another group, such as Priced Out to take it on with suitable donations. Once interest was generated, hopefully it could snowball from there.

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Many moons ago I started a thread, in the Market Psychology section on the site, called Discourse and Action. See:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=30244

Whilst we can't do much, if anything, directly about market/economic fundamentals we can do something about the discourse environment of the property market (and this, of course, links to sentiment). Markets are not just about 'economic fundamentals' and this is why traditional market analysis, that focuses on these 'fundamentals' is (so) limited in its predictive/forcasting, etc. powers. Markets, including the property market are discourse environments and it is the battle between discourses (see Foucault for more about his idea about a 'battle of discourses') that determines what is perceived to be, accepted as being, the 'truth' of the market - for example we went through a phase where people really did think, and accept as objective fact, that house prices only ever go up.

The pro boom time house price brigade (Estate Agents, BTL'ers, Mortgage lenders, etc.) certainly know about the importance of the discourse environment (although they don't conceptualise it as such) in terms of ensuring that sentiment, and the (socially constructed) 'truth' of the property market and about house prices reflects their interests. And, of course, the discourse environment interacts with the traditionally recognised economic fundamentals and no doubt plays a very important role in ensuring that the market remains 'irrational' for much longer than traditional economic analysis & understandings say should happen.

We can have an impact on shaping the discourse environment by presenting and distributing an alternative set of discourses, interpretations and understandings about the property market and house prices - ie the HPC perspective - e.g rising/booming house prices are harmful to the economy; house prices will fall and return to their long term trend levels, now is a terrible time to buy, etc.

We can challenge the VI (Estate Agents, Mortgage lenders, TV Property Programme presenters, etc.) produced discourses and indeed, in time replace them.

I still think that the most effective way in which we can challenge the dominant discourse environment is by using the internet and using National and Local Newspaper website Readers Comments facilities to spread the word and challenge the VI's discourses.

As I say in my previous comment in this thread a Campaign of Readers Comments, day in, day out, by as many of us as possible would allow us to reach a very large section of the population - and all by us doing nothing more than using our own computers. We need to start an ongoing protest march in cyberspace.

In terms of time, resources and effort it is about as minimal as can be with a real chance of having an impact.

If nothing else, it is fun as well.

I should add that I think the PricedOut group are excellent and should be given as much support as possible.

However, I still think we should strive for a more organised 'Add Readers Comments on National and Local Newspaper websites' on a daily basis by as many of us as possible - and constantly try to get more and more people to do this. This is something that is achievable and has real potential for significant impact.

If we had a thread dedicated to the 'Readers Comments Campaign' we could identify how many of us are involved, give the occasional report back of what is happening (e.g. Estate Agents and BTL'ers trying to argue against our comments, etc.), ask for support from others here in adding Readers Comments, or ideas for responses to people disagreeing with you, and so on.

Some of us have been doing this on the DM and DE websites for a while now to good effect. If we became a bit more organised and involved a good number of people it could grow into something of significance. It is something that will not only be seen and read by the thousands of readers that visit these websites but will also be carried into conversations at work, in pubs, parties, etc. It is also worth noting that the main Political Parties keep tabs on the public reactions to issues reported in the papers and monitor Readers Comments and Letters to the Editor.

It's worth a try at least?

Edited by Alfie Moon
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In answer to the OP - yes, I believe that if all FTB's banded together then we could crash the markets. However, as other posters have stated the extent of brainwashing amongst FTBers (i.e - we must buy because renting is dead money) will make it difficult to get all potential FTBers on our side of the argument. Nevertheless, the power of the internet should not be dismissed and anything is possible if you have the organisation and, most crucially, the finances to support it (at the moment, unfortuantely, we are up against a multi billion pound VI machine).

Maybe we need to elect a new HPC spokesperson. We had some success in the first part of the crash in 2007-8 (before the government intervened to create the dead cat bounce) with Jonathan Davies and he managed to get air time on major TV channels promoting the HPC arguments. I think this will strengthen our cause significantly.

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We had some success in the first part of the crash in 2007-8 (before the government intervened to create the dead cat bounce) with Jonathan Davies and he managed to get air time on major TV channels promoting the HPC arguments. I think this will strengthen our cause significantly.

Whatever happened to JD?

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Whatever happened to JD?

Saw him on Scottish Newsnight last week up against a RICS Scotland VI spokesman discussing why house prices were still over valued. He used to get quite easily wound up by the VI's but it seems he has calmed down a bit from the days of the first crash and he came across as very knowledgeable. He also rattled many VI's when he was HPC spokesman and we had many disgruntled VI's on these boards attacking him.

I think the VI's have had a bit of an easy ride since the government orchastrated dead cat bounce and the fact that we have not had a high profile spokesperson has meant that the momentum we built up in 2007-8 has now been lost.

I think there are some very articulate and intelligent posters on here who would be able to do a very good job. Maybe now is the time to consider this again?

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Thoughts?

IMO, only via political pressure, aiming at more mortgage restrictions and less planning restrictions. That would bring us lower average prices, sustainably.

In general I agree with the posters who argued that market forces are too strong. Even governments can't "buck the market", financially, forever - they wouldn't be able to afford it, for instance to keep this bubble inflated at this current level.

HOWEVER, government regulations can influence the market, for a long time - years, decades, and for as long as they have political support for it. For instance, if we keep allowing 100%mortgages, self-certs, etc., and on the other hand if we also keep current planning restrictions, the market will keep oscillating around a high price to earnings ratio.

BUT, if we regulate mortgages more tightly, with minimum 10% - 25% deposits, no self-certs, etc., and we allow millions of new (better and bigger) houses to be built, then after a few years the market average prices will be oscillating around a lower price to earnings ratio.

That is what Germany has done. And that is why house prices (and rents) are almost half of ours. And their houses are also of better quality, and bigger.

The (political) problem we have nowadays is that the majority of the population favours high house prices, wants for finance, and are NIMBYs. A recipe for (this current) disaster.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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what i mean is if we had an actual movement setup, like a petition of would be FTBs who'd signup to a pledge not to buy, and should sufficient numbers (talking tens of thousands) be obtained, then take this petition to the government?

Problem is that you would have to have a way of proving that these people were FTB'ers actually able to buy and not just people with nothing better to do.

Isn't that sort of what Priced Out is?

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Something like this?

HLweb.jpg

It's in need of a little polishing, but not bad for something I've knocked up this evening.

I think you are in the right direction there FG, designing some placards.

I mentioned before that I think the main problem is political (post # 38, here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=159581&view=findpost&p=2896744 ), but I didn't finish that post properly.

The government's financial support for the bubble won't last, they can't afford it. But the regulations (credit under-regulated, and planning over-regulated) may last forever. It doesn't cost the government any money, directly.

And I think it is much easier than people think to influence these kind of politics. Britain is so sedated politically that if just 10 or 20 FTBers had showed up in front of Shapps meeting last Tuesday with some catchy placards, I am quite sure the BBC would have shown it.

I am not good at slogans, but as a crude 1st attempt at drafting some, just to get the ball rolling:

"This is still a house price bubble!"

"Gov., stop propping up the house price bubble!"

"Ban Liar Loans!" (A homage to Eric.)

"Boomers, we FTBuyers can't afford your pension!"

"We refuse a life on debt-servitude"

"NIMBYs - let us build our own homes!"

"It is just shelter FFS, in the 21st century!"

I do think that 10 or 20 people with placards like this could make it to the TV news. Well, it is worth a try, I think. But it will have to use some opportunity like last Tuesday's meeting, when the press is there already - and bored, with no images to show for it. It will depend on some luck too, of course, needing a quiet news day. If Iran has a revolution, forget it. Things like that.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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I do think that 10 or 20 people with placards like this could make it to the TV news. Well, it is worth a try, I think. But it will have to use some opportunity like last Tuesday's meeting, when the press is there already - and bored, with no images to show for it. It will depend on some luck too, of course, needing a quiet news day. If Iran has a revolution, forget it. Things like that.

.

I totally agree with this.I find it frustrating that none of us on here can get up from our computers and actually do something in the real world. We only need ten or so people at events holding placards with snappy placards and with luck photos and quotes end up in the Press or Facebook etc.

I know it works, cos I took part a couple of months ago in a couple of demonstrations (only ten of us) and my plakard ended up all over the internet, even on the front page of the BBC new site :)

Come on people. We need to Stop Talking and Start Doing

:rolleyes:

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Thinking on similar lines people on this website from the same area could work together to undermine sellers expectations. Say a house is on for £200,000 that is appealing to someone on here. They could arrange viewings by 3 other HPCers who would put in low offers (say around £150,000) thus lowering the sellers expectations. Then when the fourth viewer who wants to buy the house puts in an offer of £170,000 that offer would look attractive and would be more likely seriously considered by the seller.

Just an idea, probably not a good one.

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I totally agree with this.I find it frustrating that none of us on here can get up from our computers and actually do something in the real world. We only need ten or so people at events holding placards with snappy placards and with luck photos and quotes end up in the Press or Facebook etc.

I know it works, cos I took part a couple of months ago in a couple of demonstrations (only ten of us) and my plakard ended up all over the internet, even on the front page of the BBC new site :)

Come on people. We need to Stop Talking and Start Doing

:rolleyes:

Exactly! Particularly for people who live in or near London, and work allowing. It could even be fun! These things always end up in pubs. :) Protests are very thirsty inducing. :D

Any suggestion for placard's slogans?

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Thinking on similar lines people on this website from the same area could work together to undermine sellers expectations. Say a house is on for £200,000 that is appealing to someone on here. They could arrange viewings by 3 other HPCers who would put in low offers (say around £150,000) thus lowering the sellers expectations. Then when the fourth viewer who wants to buy the house puts in an offer of £170,000 that offer would look attractive and would be more likely seriously considered by the seller.

Just an idea, probably not a good one.

I think that would help too, but I think it is more work for less result.

Imagine if just 20 people can put some placards on BBC Six O'clock News?! The "cost/benefit" here is huge!

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Protesting, lobbying etc. won't make the blindest bit of difference. If you can be ignored you will be ignored. Forget about persuading banks, governments etc. to do their job properly instead of just lining their own pockets - why are they going to stop just because some people ask them to and shout at them a bit? They'll happily destroy anything and everything in their lust for wealth and power.

The people to target are other potential FTBers. Nothing will happen unless enough can be persuaded that taking up shared ownership deals, massive mortgages etc. is the poison that it is. And you need to persuade them that there's some chance of success too, and that they aren't simply trying to stop a runaway train by standing in front of it. Even of the ones who think the current situation is bad there will be many who'll prefer to ride the train and hope for the best. Events such as the radio phone-in the other day will probably achieve more than protesting - both appear in the press in one form or another, but whenever you see a protest, or someone lobbying, how often do you take them seriously if they don't line up with your own thinking?

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Protesting, lobbying etc. won't make the blindest bit of difference. If you can be ignored you will be ignored. Forget about persuading banks, governments etc. to do their job properly instead of just lining their own pockets - why are they going to stop just because some people ask them to and shout at them a bit? They'll happily destroy anything and everything in their lust for wealth and power.

I'm not suggesting that we can change Government and all the other VI. Its about getting into the subconscious of the populous. A Photo here, a comment here. A little bit of doubt in peoples mind goes a long way to changing this stupid situation, stopping them thinking that property is a one way bet.

At the moment, there really is no alternative ideas in circulation other than those wheeled out by the VIs. We can change that, or at least have fun and beer trying :D .

You never know until you try.

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I'm not suggesting that we can change Government and all the other VI. Its about getting into the subconscious of the populous. A Photo here, a comment here. A little bit of doubt in peoples mind goes a long way to changing this stupid situation, stopping them thinking that property is a one way bet.

At the moment, there really is no alternative ideas in circulation other than those wheeled out by the VIs. We can change that, or at least have fun and beer trying :D .

You never know until you try.

+ 1

Besides, if the current market were on firm foundations, we would have no chance. But as this market is more like a castle of cards, a few little pushes on national TV may help it tumble a bit sooner. :D

And there is the beer afterwards too. Very important!

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Indeed - the importance of the discourse environment in the property market should not be underestimated. Look at the development of economic theory and how the role of discourse has been acknowledged - see the link to my (very) old thread in the Market Psychology section of the HPC website in my previous comment in this thread.

The VI's during the boom years (and indeed now) did not just rely on economic/market fundamentals to do the work for them in generating and/or making the most of the credit boom for the property market. What the general public believe to be the 'truth', 'common sense' of the property market and house prices plays a very important part in terms of their thinking and actions in the market. And sure enough the VI's used TV (Property P0rn), newspapers, adverts, etc. to incredibly good effect ..... and they are still doing it.

We, of course don't have the huge resources the VI's have for influencing the discourse environment about property and house prices. But, we do have access to the internet and are able to place our discourse about house prices on nationally read Newspaper websites. Very large numbers of people read the National Newspaper websites and a great many people read the Readers Comments. Indeed, many people go to the websites to read the Readers Comments in particular. Through this we have access to a very large audience that costs us nothing in terms of money, doesn't involve the complexities of trying to arrange and motivate a Protest March, and involves no more time, resources and effort than required to add a comment here on the HPC website (other than the initial registering on a Newspaper Website so that you can add Readers Comments).

We can reach a very large audience. And if we do this daily, week after week, month after month the message will be noticed, discussed, debated and spread further through conversations at work, at home and in the pub, etc.

Journalists and Editors keep tabs on Readers Comments and so, if Readers Comments putting forward our views on house prices keep appearing every day, week and month it will become a story worth reporting in itself. And, no doubt, all this would generate new supporters for our views from the public who would then add their own contributions to Readers Comments - i.e. their is the potential for a snow-ball effect (if we keep up the effort!). Also, as I mentioned previously, the main Political Parties keep tabs on the public's response to and feelings about key social, political, economic issues via monitoring Readers Letters and Readers Comments in National and Local Newspapers (I take this from colleagues in the Politics Dept at the University where I am an academic). The other audience that will pick up on this, if we make the effort, is Estate Agents and indeed vendors in the property market.

If we make the effort the discourse environment in Readers Comments about house prices will be infused with 'house prices are going to crash big time', 'boom time house prices have and are causing huge problems for the economy and our everyday lives', 'house prices need to fall', etc., etc. As I said before this will then spread out to the general environment and will become perceived as being common sensical and true.

I support the other efforts for action, spreading the word, etc. Using Readers Comments on National and Local Newspaper websites, however, is something we can do now for very little time, effort or resources - but with the potential for real impact. If we had 50 - 100 of us doing this on a daily, or even every few days, we really could reach a very big audience - particulary if we just build it into our daily routines and just keep going with it as the weeks and months pass.

Surely its worth a go?

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