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RichB

As The Ftb Median Age Increases, What Are The Consequences?

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As I'm sure many of you are aware, the median age of the FTB has been increasing steadily for several years.

Sadly in 2007 the CML stopped freely publishing their statistics to non insiders, indeed it looks like it now charges a bucket load to see them. It would be great if someone here could give us the updated stats...

However, IIRC back in 2007 this age pushed 37 years old.

That's up from the mid 20's 10 years befor that.

So what are the consequences of this rise?

Firstly, there is now a massive flood of people coming of an age where they would normally be starting families who cannot buy their own property, so will either be living in shared housing, renting, with mum and dad or on the dole. None of which in many people opinion are exactly ideal for bringing up kids.

Secondly - as this is a MEDIAN - ie 50% fall below this age, then surely a large proportion will fall above it too. As it increases past 40 - this then must mean that the median FTB can no longer even qualify for a 25 year (standard term) mortgage!

This must provide a steep impetus to drive down housing costs - or is the government a step ahead - is this the real reason for retirement age being pushed out by 2 years?

What do you lot think, and what other pitfalls for society do you see related to the belated home acquisition age?

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Would be interesting to see a plot of house prices versus down syndrome births

Interesting:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/29/downs-syndrome-bbc

The National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register holds probably the largest single dataset on Down's syndrome. They have calculated that if you account for the increase in the age at which people are becoming pregnant, the number of Down's syndrome live births in the UK would have increased from 1989 to 2006 not by 4%, but from 717 to an estimated 1,454, if screening and subsequent terminations had not been available.

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...stuck in a job that you don't want to do (especially if it's well paid)...working longer...doing more hours to make things meet (& not spending that time with your family / friends, whatever)..

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I thought the extended retirement age was just the application of simple maths, in that more people will die before claiming a penny of their pension?

Buckers

Indeed, that's what I thought too. But if they are happy for the median FTB age to creep over 40 - how are they going to give them mortgages? Surely the only way this bubble can continue is if people can work longer before buying - yet still need the full 25 years mortgage?

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Responsible people will not have kids. The next generation will consist entirely of people at either end of the scale ; Either yobs and thugs born of those in sink estates who aren't smart enough or simply don't care enough to use contraception, or tarquins born of the aga saga woman who lucked out with the housing market. HG Wells was right with his time machine, a future of Morlocks feeding off of stupid and naive tarquins.

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I thought the extended retirement age was just the application of simple maths, in that more people will die before claiming a penny of their pension?

Buckers

That and those that do will claim it for fewer years.

Sadly it just isn't possible to work for 40 years then expect to spend 30 years in comfortable retirement.

At least it isn't if you need to spend your whole working life paying for overpriced shelter.

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Indeed, that's what I thought too. But if they are happy for the median FTB age to creep over 40 - how are they going to give them mortgages? Surely the only way this bubble can continue is if people can work longer before buying - yet still need the full 25 years mortgage?

And remember this is FTB's buying FTB property, not 3 bedroom family homes.

A generation of childless professionals living in crumbling appartment blocks whilst the chavs bread like rabbits.

That's going to end well..........not. :(

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Looking at it from the other end, with 4x% of school leavers now going to University and then having a gap year you've really got to move the starting goalposts from 18 to perhaps 22. So whereas most people of my generation would start work at 18 (and many more at 16 and previous generations 14) there appears to have been a temporal shift upwards by 3-4 years before you even start.

Edit to add: Can't find the link just now but I've read reports(s) suggesting this 'ageing population' which needs additional care is very overblown, not least for the simple reason that as we are living longer so too our health has improved for longer such that the length of time we spend in old age consuming healthcare costs is little changed in practice, despite the endless scare stories to the contrary. Bit no idea if this is true of not.

Edited by Red Karma

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Massive collpase in new company, possibly breakthrough company generation as all available funds syphoned into paying debt.

Also massive contraction in discretionary expenditure as a result - unless they are living at home.

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That and those that do will claim it for fewer years.

Sadly it just isn't possible to work for 40 years then expect to spend 30 years in comfortable retirement.

At least it isn't if you need to spend your whole working life paying for overpriced shelter.

....In the future the need for people to work will not be so great, technology, automation everything will be less labour intensive....cheaper labour will be sourced form where it can be found....so we will instead need to share the paid work amongst ourselves and work in our families and communities the rest of the time.....prices of our shelter will have to come down to accommodate the fall in real wages...either that or the working will have to share more of their fair share with others.

I would rather have less work, lower house prices and living costs and more time to do other worthwhile things.Rather than having to more work with more commitments, higher house prices a higher cost of living, larger debt, bigger tax deductions to share with the non working/ underemployed. ;)

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As I'm sure many of you are aware, the median age of the FTB has been increasing steadily for several years.

Sadly in 2007 the CML stopped freely publishing their statistics to non insiders, indeed it looks like it now charges a bucket load to see them. It would be great if someone here could give us the updated stats...

However, IIRC back in 2007 this age pushed 37 years old.

That's up from the mid 20's 10 years befor that.

Rich,

Coincidentally the CML published an article on FTBs today. They reckon the median age of FTBs hasn’t changed much over the past few years and is still 29.

FTB_breakdown.gif

They also link to an earlier article 'First-time buyers - are they really getting older?' and this shows the average age of FTBs who aren't receiving assistance from parents/grandparents is rising rapidly.

Based on December's CML loan numbers, FTBs had an average deposit of £35,000.

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That and those that do will claim it for fewer years.

Sadly it just isn't possible to work for 40 years then expect to spend 30 years in comfortable retirement.

At least it isn't if you need to spend your whole working life paying for overpriced shelter.

And i have to ask what goods and services is our society sorely missing that we need our 60+ cohort working to produce, and which our current 10million+ underemployed, unemployed, pretend-invalids and self-funding dolees (uni grads), cannot provide?

As with most you are confusing a monetary phenomenon with an economic one.

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And i have to ask what goods and services is our society sorely missing that we need our 60+ cohort working to produce, and which our current 10million+ underemployed, unemployed, pretend-invalids and self-funding dolees (uni grads), cannot provide?

Your mistake is thinking that there is a fixed supply of jobs.

As with most you are confusing a monetary phenomenon with an economic one.

And you're just throwing around economic sounding words without knowing what they mean.

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And remember this is FTB's buying FTB property, not 3 bedroom family homes.

A generation of childless professionals living in crumbling appartment blocks whilst the chavs bread like rabbits.

That's going to end well..........not. :(

+ we'll see in a few decades time how many people couldn't afford a pension after covering the mortgage

As for the chavs having kids, reminds me of a film called Idiocracy. It's not great but the overall concept is bang on that scenario where the people living within their means stop having kids. Idiocracy on IMDB

Narrator: As the 21st century began, human evolution was at a turning point. Natural selection, the process by which the strongest, the smartest, the fastest, reproduced in greater numbers than the rest, a process which had once favored the noblest traits of man, now began to favor different traits. Most science fiction of the day predicted a future that was more civilized and more intelligent. But as time went on, things seemed to be heading in the opposite direction. A dumbing down. How did this happen? Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to simply reward those who reproduced the most, and left the intelligent to become an endangered species.

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+ we'll see in a few decades time how many people couldn't afford a pension after covering the mortgage

As for the chavs having kids, reminds me of a film called Idiocracy. It's not great but the overall concept is bang on that scenario where the people living within their means stop having kids. Idiocracy on IMDB

It's how our rulers want us, ovine. They have hit upon a way to turn the working class into mindless debt-bonded serfs. Are we headed for two hominids, homo sapiens opulens, and homo ovinus?

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Rich,

Coincidentally the CML published an article on FTBs today. They reckon the median age of FTBs hasn't changed much over the past few years and is still 29.

They also link to an earlier article 'First-time buyers - are they really getting older?' and this shows the average age of FTBs who aren't receiving assistance from parents/grandparents is rising rapidly.

Based on December's CML loan numbers, FTBs had an average deposit of £35,000.

That's really interesting, and I struggled to make sense of it given what I recall of their previous stats (ie before 2007 when they hid it all away!).

I guess, as you say, the graph they publish in your second link is relevant. The key to it is in the discrimination between those 'receiving help' and those not. Those receiving help are I suggest likely to fall under quite different criteria - possibly some of this 'help' includes joint mortgages or guarantors from the parents?

Average age of first-time buyers (excluding those receiving assistance)

Averageageoffirst-timebuyersexclassistance.jpg

Edited by RichB

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Your mistake is thinking that there is a fixed supply of jobs.

And you're just throwing around economic sounding words without knowing what they mean.

1) Not at all. I do however believe that the improvements in our societies quality of life, provided by potential jobs which could replace the ones lost through automation/computerisation, is decreasing as time passes. This means that new jobs which arise will have to continually pay less and less, so as to make the service/good provided attractive enough to overcome consumers hesitancy to spend on goods/services which are becoming increasingly marginal. For example contrast the quality of life improvement provided by the vacuum cleaner (try cleaning a carpet by hand sometime) with that of a dog walking service or tanning salon. Eventually you reach the point where the potential good/service provided is too marginal to pay enough, to provide enough economic incentive for a worker to take that position. This is the point we are at now.

2)I know exactly what they mean. The economy is a means to provide the goods/services which people desire, to improve their quality of life. That a person does not have enough money tokens for something does not necessarily mean that there is not enough capacity in the economy to provide those things. Rather from the numbers of underemployed, unemployed, pretend-invalids and self-funding dolees (uni grads) it is readily apparent that there is with plenty more to spare.

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The inevitable end result is that a ftb is one who inherits thier parents property around the time of thier own retirement! 66 hear I come!

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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