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D C L G Shock Rise In House Prices

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The latest statistics release includes data based on mortgage completions during the month of December 2010.

The key points from the release are:

  • In December UK house prices increased by 3.8 per cent over the year and increased by 0.5 per cent over the month (seasonally adjusted).
  • The average mix-adjusted UK house price was £208,148 (not seasonally adjusted).
  • Average house prices were 0.4 per cent lower over the quarter to December, compared to a quarterly increase of 0.2 per cent over the quarter to September (seasonally adjusted).

(This index lags by 4-5 months - this report relates to deals done in Sept / Oct 2010).

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You are extremely talented having the ability to respond to an article without looking at it.


Although I'm not responding to this specific survey. more to the DCLG house price index in general terms.

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From the Horse's mouth....

Data sources

Since October 2005 the mix-adjusted house price index has been based on a sample of mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS) as collected by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)/BankSearch. Before this the index was based on the Survey of Mortgage Lenders. The number of cases received from the RMS is affected by the total number of mortgages that have been completed for house purchase. During 2007, when there were on average around 85,000 loans per month for house purchase in the UK, there were around 50,000 records per month supplied from the RMS by about 60 lenders. In the 6 months to December 2010 there were an average of 46,000 loans per month for house purchase (CML) and the RMS sample provided around 26,500 records per month from 28 lenders. The RMS sample provided to DCLG therefore covered around 57 per cent of UK mortgage completions for house purchase in this period.


Other House Price Indices

There are several house price indices available from commercial sources. The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) index shows a similar trend in annual house price rates to other indices. Differences will be affected by differences in the data and methodology used to compile the index. For example, the DCLG index uses expenditure weights, whereas other indices use transaction weights. Consequently, the DCLG index is influenced by house price growth rates in the higher priced areas (which are currently in the South) where house prices - and therefore total expenditure on house buying - is highest. Similarly, regional rates of change in house prices determined by the DCLG Index are more influenced by the market for the higher priced properties (i.e. the demand for detached houses). Furthermore, the DCLG house price index figures are based on completions. Some other indicators are based on asking prices or mortgage approvals and reflect activity in more recent periods. There is a lag between mortgage approval and mortgage completion. Therefore the DCLG Index is not directly comparable with these other indicators.

Hardly a truly representative or objective Index.

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