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Realistbear

Retail To See 10,000 Shops Close Along With Massive Job Losses

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/u-k-shop-vacancies-rise-on-internet-taxes-research-group-says.html

Empty Shops Spread in U.K. Town Centers as Malls, Internet Take Business
By Tim "Timothy" Barwell - Feb 15, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
Shop vacancies in U.K. town centers increased last year as falling demand and online competition forced businesses to shut their doors, according to retail researcher the Local Data Co.
City center vacancies rose to 14.5 percent at the end of 2010 from 12 percent a year earlier, the London-based company said in a statement. The rate was less than 6 percent in 2008.
A gap between the south of the country and the less- affluent north is widening, according to the report. Of the top 25 highest-vacancy town centers with more than 400 stores, all but two are in the Midlands or the North, Local Data said.
Around 10,000 shops will close this year
, the company said. Online retail sales are rising by 20 percent a year and companies including Arcadia Group Plc and HMV Group Plc are cutting stores and moving to larger units in shopping centers away from town business districts, Local Data said in the report said. HMV said on Jan. 5 it will close 60 U.K. stores this year.

Online may last a little longer due to shifting sales to that sector but jobs will not increase in that sector as it is highly automated and not at all labour intensive. My guess would be that 30,000 stores will close this year as they are not factoring recession and the knock on effects of job losses in other sectors.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/u-k-shop-vacancies-rise-on-internet-taxes-research-group-says.html

My guess would be that 30,000 stores will close this year as they are not factoring recession and the knock on effects of job losses in other sectors.

High rents and input inflation squeezing margins as well as falling discretionary demand for any goods other than essentials as budgets are squeezed by inflation.

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Online may last a little longer due to shifting sales to that sector but jobs will not increase in that sector as it is highly automated and not at all labour intensive. My guess would be that 30,000 stores will close this year as they are not factoring recession and the knock on effects of job losses in other sectors.

Actually we may see the opposite this year: an improvement in the high street.

Reason: motivated landlords, as the government is (IIRC) removing in April Labour's tax breaks for landlords of empty properties.

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Actually we may see the opposite this year: an improvement in the high street.

Reason: motivated landlords, as the government is (IIRC) removing in April Labour's tax breaks for landlords of empty properties.

That is good......I would prefer to see more of the old style high streets, shops run by small businesses and enterprises, that are there to enrich the community they work in, even pop-up shops, indoor markets that sell fresh local seasonal foods......less of the multi chains selling tat and rubbish that look the same full of racks of boringness, sadness and artificial staged surroundings that kill the spirit of real shopping, better talking to real passionate honest people that want to help and build relationships as well as their business.

At the same time the local council should do their part by providing free and/or reasonably priced parking. ;)

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Actually we may see the opposite this year: an improvement in the high street.

Reason: motivated landlords, as the government is (IIRC) removing in April Labour's tax breaks for landlords of empty properties.

Except for most of the supply is in cartels that keep rents high to dissuade occupiers from switching to lower rents in other premises, even if it means that 10/20%+ or more of the propoerty remains unlet.

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I spent quite a bit of time in London, when the credit crunch happened shops in London started to close, then coincidentally with the start of Q.E., the decline halted and nothing else closed and most of the closed ones started to get filled again. From what I saw this weekend the shops are closing again in London....

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I spent quite a bit of time in London, when the credit crunch happened shops in London started to close, then coincidentally with the start of Q.E., the decline halted and nothing else closed and most of the closed ones started to get filled again. From what I saw this weekend the shops are closing again in London....

Absolutely agree with your observations. Make no mistake, London is not immune from the recession and QE has kept shops afloat in the West End over the past two years but it's nearly worn off now. My parents saw 3 restaurants down the Fulham Road closed since Xmas.....quick Merv better get QE2 launched, we can't have your elite and retail economy collapsing now can we :lol:

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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