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Home.co.uk Asking Price Index Down 0.3%

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The first of the "increasing supply causing prices to fall" surveys :) so much for lack of supply limiting falls, that didn't last long :D

IMO Supply was tightening before in anticipation of a Spring bounce. Once that doesn't materialise, it will be four long years since peak 2007 prices. The penny is going to start dropping that those prices are not going to be achieved any time soon. This should in turn see a lot of the pent-up supply, re accidental landlords, being released.

Any downturn in supply at the moment or in the foreseeable future is going to be more than offset by the decrease in demand.

Edited by rantnrave

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Great headline and quote under it...

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by

deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until

their children wake-up homeless…" Thomas Jefferson, 3rd US President (1743 - 1826).

Who produces this survey? Is it one of us?!

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Great headline and quote under it...

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by

deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until

their children wake-up homeless…" Thomas Jefferson, 3rd US President (1743 - 1826).

Who produces this survey? Is it one of us?!

These surveys are always good. I remember one last year that went on about how bad property was as an inflation hedge and even tamped gold, showing the house prices bs gold graph that gets posted on here now and then!

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Great headline and quote under it...

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by

deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until

their children wake-up homeless…" Thomas Jefferson, 3rd US President (1743 - 1826).

Who produces this survey? Is it one of us?!

It's a revolution!

HPC uber bears are in control of the media outlets!

All your indexes are belong to us!

*composes self, looks around sheepishly*

Edited by Timm

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It's a revolution!

HPC uber bears are in control of the media outlets!

All your indexes are belong to us!

*composes self, looks around sheepishly*

Lol, calm down, the mighty BBC is yet to fall!!

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Ohh look. At the end of the report, they have a shiny new index that shows that the housing market is recovering!!!!

House price data, for a long time, been used to gauge the current state of the

housing market. First principles suggest home values provide a reasonable indication

of housing market vigour, since the average house price is derived from the delicate

balance between buyers and sellers.

However, in certain circumstances, the house price model does not always

reflect the actual health of the market, as there is no immediate relation to volumes

of properties moving through the market. Market liquidity if you like.

Take for instance the now familiar scenario where there is a shock to the

mortgage market (e.g. Aug 2007) and following that there is a standoff between

buyers and sellers. Prices don't change for some time and hence all the house price

indices are wrong-footed with regard to the real health of the housing market.

Likewise, when a market suddenly really takes off, as happened in early 2006, we

know that house prices take time to respond to the new market dynamic.

Hence we present a new leading indicator, built around two key variables for

property sales:

• Total volume of UK property for sale.

• Average Time on Market for all properties.

[From this, they concoct a graph showing that there is more on the market, and as the amount of time each property spent on market has held steady, ergo, there must be more selling per day.]*

Property Turnover per Day

This simple model provides a trend line that shows accurately the sudden changes in

the housing market dynamics for the events mentioned above. Moreover, it is far

superior to house price trends in showing more sudden changes and thereby more

timely. As of today, this new indictor shows a clear up-tick showing an increase in

property moving through the market. By the same gauge a significantly healthier

market than in Feb 2010 and hinting at further recovery in 2011.

*I assume they have taken account of properties that give up or swap agent, and don't just assume that a

property coming off the market equals a sale?

The day BBC have a

headline like "Sellers Slash and Prices Tumble" will be a cold day in hell.

This not good enough for you? http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-12449987

Edited by Timm

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Ohh look. At the end of the report, they have a shiny new index that shows that the housing market is recovering!!!!

*I assume they have taken account of properties that give up or swap agent, and don't just assume that a

property coming off the market equals a sale?

Yes I noticed that - nice little hedge at the end - like they were just about to release it and thought "hang on - what about Daily Express coverage?"!!

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Yes I noticed that - nice little hedge at the end - like they were just about to release it and thought "hang on - what about Daily Express coverage?"!!

______________________________________________

From: ********* ****

Sent: 14 February 2011 13:50

To: 'rachael.bonfield@home.co.uk'

Subject: New "Property tunover per day" index.

Hello,

Please can you let me know how you calculate the number of properties that are removed from the market, or de-list in order to instruct another agent? That is to say, how do you ensure that a property that fails to sell is not counted as a sale when they are removed from the market?

Many thanks,

********* ****

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______________________________________________

From: ********* ****

Sent: 14 February 2011 13:50

To: 'rachael.bonfield@home.co.uk'

Subject: New "Property tunover per day" index.

Hello,

Please can you let me know how you calculate the number of properties that are removed from the market, or de-list in order to instruct another agent? That is to say, how do you ensure that a property that fails to sell is not counted as a sale when they are removed from the market?

Many thanks,

********* ****

:lol:

That's cruel. Of course you realise you'll have to wait until next weekend for a reply - so they can ask the saturday boy what he did again.. ;)

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"Sellers Slash and Prices Tumble": I am not sure I see the connection between their headline and the reported drop of 0.3%. :blink:

Damn that BearSpin!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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