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House Prices 'set To Fall In 2011'

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jJ2EtyMu65pkBRln29n3ilm2P9rA?docId=N0707841297567083072A

The fragile economic recovery looks set to disrupt the housing market during 2011, leading to property price falls, it has been predicted.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said house prices had risen by 6.4% during 2010, but it said the market recovery would stall this year, triggering price falls of 1.7%.

It said anaemic growth in disposable incomes and higher unemployment throughout 2011 would trigger house price falls, particularly in regions that were most vulnerable to public sector cuts.

But it said affordability for first-time buyers would reach an eight-year high as house price growth weakened and mortgage interest rates stayed at record low levels.

Mortgage lending is expected to remain low next year as demand is muted and households focus on paying down their debt and increasing their savings levels.

But house prices should begin to rise again in 2012 as banks relax their lending criteria further and consumer confidence recovers.

The group expects property prices to rise by 2.3% in 2012, followed by gains of 3.7% in 2013 and increases of 4.7% and 5.5% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of Cebr, said: "We expect house prices to grow tentatively over the coming years, given that household incomes are being squeezed and banks are still wary of lending. There is currently significant uncertainty in the market caused by the Government's spending cuts and a choppy recovery, which has greatly impacted transaction levels."

Shehan Mohamed, the report's author and an economist at Cebr, said: "We expect to see household earning power suffer over the next year or so, due to higher inflation and weaker employment prospects as the economic recovery remains fragile.

"Lower consumer confidence throughout the year is expected to rein in demand for mortgages, which will average around 50,000 per month - still around 50% lower than pre-credit crunch levels."

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The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said house prices had risen by 6.4% during 2010...

According to who?

I'm not aware of any data based index that was this bullish.

As to their 1.7% falls in 2011, that's a very exact figure that I predict will be wrong.

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I'm not familiar with CEBRs methodology but this doesn't make sense to me! House prices rose by 6.4% during 2010 and they're only going to fall by 1.7% this year, wages are stagnant, inflation is rampant and interest rates will prob rise this year, yet it's going to be the best time to buy for FTBs for 8 years? Eh?

If you're going off their figures - 6.4% increase in 2010 and 1.7% drop in 2011 - surely the best time to buy was at the end of 2009 before the 6.4% increase? Interest was 0.5% then, and we hadn't had 12 months of high inflation with low wage growth.

Edited by Unsafe As Houses

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According to who?

I'm not aware of any data based index that was this bullish.

As to their 1.7% falls in 2011, that's a very exact figure that I predict will be wrong.

Removed cos I was saying the same as Unsafe.

I will leave it as a "+1". :)

Second thought: Maybe they are confusing price inflation with Wage inflation and that 20% inflation will mean improved affordability. :rolleyes:

Edited by bobthe~

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Second thought: Maybe they are confusing price inflation with Wage inflation and that 20% inflation will mean improved affordability. :rolleyes:

The whole thing is a load of tosh == ABSOLUTE DRIVEL - placed into the "media" by PR to$$ers...... WADDALOAD OF CR@P... :rolleyes::rolleyes:

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According to who?

I'm not aware of any data based index that was this bullish.

As to their 1.7% falls in 2011, that's a very exact figure that I predict will be wrong.

This is looking very fishy indeed. I think it deserves further investigation. Who are these people?

LINK: http://www.cebr.com/

Where is the original report? Data sources and methodology?

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Who knows..

The only thing i predict is that things will not be the same in 2011 as in 2010.

Tunisia + Egypt then algeria, syria, jordan, libya and maybe saudi

I dont think oil is going to stay at present levels do you?

Rates will have to rise and in this environment 1% rise = 10% off the price given the current low rates.

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Did you find out anything about this site TMT? LINK: http://www.cebr.com Who are these people?

These "report" is looking really fishy. I think it does deserve further investigation.

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I don't wish to appear rude, but why do you chaps actually give this type of stuff any serious consideration?

It is interesting as far as a message goes, but it will not change reality and in that respect is irrelevant.

People on this site stand a far better chance of predicting what will happen than all the experts in the world.

yes they are VIs, yes they are annoying, but they are passengers.

Actually what is annoying is that the BBC are too lazy to check the validity of the rubbish they post on their web site.

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I don't wish to appear rude, but why do you chaps actually give this type of stuff any serious consideration?

It is interesting as far as a message goes, but it will not change reality and in that respect is irrelevant.

People on this site stand a far better chance of predicting what will happen than all the experts in the world.

yes they are VIs, yes they are annoying, but they are passengers.

Actually what is annoying is that the BBC are too lazy to check the validity of the rubbish they post on their web site.

Precisely. That is exactly why I so curious about this "report".

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Similar nonsense was buried in today's Telegraph (was looking at a deadwood copy, so no linky, apologies).

I reckon these lads (& ladies?) do well when they find their way home every evening.

2 months ago nobody predicted Tunisia & Egypt, and now they are forecasting 2015!!!

:D:D:D:D:D

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Similar nonsense was buried in today's Telegraph (was looking at a deadwood copy, so no linky, apologies).

I reckon these lads (& ladies?) do well when they find their way home every evening.

2 months ago nobody predicted Tunisia & Egypt, and now they are forecasting 2015!!!

:D:D:D:D:D

bunch of C A N T S........... :rolleyes:

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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