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Careers Advice - Input Needed

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I have two scientific degrees, an eye for figures and detail, tenacity and a total no BS mentality, and some spare dosh. Should I/could I get into currency trading or the stock market as a possible alternative income stream, working for myself at home?

Is it a mad idea?

Where do I go for insights and guidance to start up?

If it was easy, everyone would be doing it, right?

I know there are some knowledgeable HPCers out there. Anyone done/doing this?

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Start with spreadbetting. Then re-evaluate after you've lost your starting pot of money.

I've heard of ppl making money with betfair...you can setup counter bets whereby even if you lose, you win...

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I have two scientific degrees, an eye for figures and detail, tenacity and a total no BS mentality, and some spare dosh. Should I/could I get into currency trading or the stock market as a possible alternative income stream, working for myself at home?

Is it a mad idea?

Where do I go for insights and guidance to start up?

If it was easy, everyone would be doing it, right?

I know there are some knowledgeable HPCers out there. Anyone done/doing this?

You need a very particular mindset to make money doing this. Moreover, I would say that if you are looking at this as a way of making a living (i.e. you are not already independently wealthy and you need the resulting income ot pay the bills) you will go broke very quickly. The worst thing you can do is trade under pressure.

Also note that you will be trading against large numbers of people with much more experience, knowledge, financial backing, and quicker access to news than you. Trading currencies is worse than a zero sum game as not only is there a loser for every winner, but a third person is collecting the spread.

Edited to add: I traded like you suggest in 2007/8 and did quite well, but that was because the world was in denial and I wasn't, and because the money I was trading with was truly superfluous to requirements and more was coming in every month. I was also very lucky in that one of my first trades was a very good one, in hindsight more by chance than skill, and this meant I was playing with the houses money which takes pressure off. If I had made the opposite trade, I would have lost a lot of money and things might have been very different. Even in this circumstance it was, to me a full time job, on top of my normal job.

I would not trade now as I don't have spare cash lying around which will affect the psychology of my trading and the markets are no longer as clear (to me) as they were then. I'm pretty sure that if I was trading now I would lose money.

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I've heard of ppl making money with betfair...you can setup counter bets whereby even if you lose, you win...

I know a guy who makes money consistently with temporal arbitrage on betfair. He is a retired multimillionaire, and has computer programs churning away in his office all day long (and a couple of pet Russian software developers to maintain and update them.)

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Thanks all. Heard of a guy who started up after being made redundant (accountant at building firm ;)) & seemed to be doing well after a few rocky months.

Was thinking of giving it a try as a hobby first of all, as a third stream income, then maybe if it was going well it would take more focus. Guess it's an all or nothing activity, round the clock thing if you want to make it work? Just wondering where are the most reliable places to go for information.

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You will have to find an edge to make money, and as you are a novice, I doubt that you will manage it and will most likely just be throwing your money away. However, if you really wanted to pursue it, you could try and get a job at an existing trading company, and then you might learn enough background information and strategies to make money without the infrastructure.

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It doesn't need to be all the time, I used to trade shares and make steady 20%+ a year. This was when I was working in the City and there were two other people working there doing the same. We'd swop tips, say when we were getting out of companies etc. and it worked very well.

The equivalent these days would be something like the Motley Fool boards, but the big downside to those is that whilst I was talking to people I knew and trusted you don't know who you're dealing with there until you've been on a while.

One other tip is that the tax-efficient way to trade is to use something like IG Index but back this up with a big pot of safe money that you associate with your options when working out the risk. So 90% in cash (or whatever) and 10% gambling stake on IG. So that if you lose your whole stake then you are no worse off than if you had put it all in a share which had dropped 10%. You need to be pretty disciplined on this but it works.

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I've heard of ppl making money with betfair...you can setup counter bets whereby even if you lose, you win...

Isn't this a rumour started by Betfair to pull the suckers in? :P

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Isn't this a rumour started by Betfair to pull the suckers in? :P

It's not a rumour.

I know nothing about football and still managed to make 20p-60p on my £100 to start with and within weeks I had doubled the stake. I created a simple table in excel and if on entering all the win/lose/draw for a particular game 'Bertha' churned out 0.05 I'd be guaranteed to win. I got bored and altered my play to a 95% chance of winning making £5 each time but lost the full amount on the 4th go then gave up.

A few months later I tried to revitalise my machine and found the numbers no longer added up to anything other than a big fat 0 and that can only be down to the efficient automated arbitration by the likes of the millionaire and his two Russians.

Edit : I figured that the only way to continue this game was to exploit fan loyalty and the north/south divide betting outfit bias. i.e. running win/lose bets on different accounts and take the money people pledged on their ailing clubs that they were almost surely guaranteed to lose. I got into a headspin creating v1.02 of bertha and didn't follow it through.

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It doesn't need to be all the time, I used to trade shares and make steady 20%+ a year. This was when I was working in the City and there were two other people working there doing the same. We'd swop tips, say when we were getting out of companies etc. and it worked very well.

If you can make 20%+ per year and scale it up to do it when trading with millions not just thousands, then you should start a hedge fund. Use your capital to start with and then publicise your results to the big money managers (not methods though). They will throw you money to manage and with your charging your 2 and 20 you will be on your way to becoming a multi millionaire.

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If you can make 20%+ per year and scale it up to do it when trading with millions not just thousands, then you should start a hedge fund. Use your capital to start with and then publicise your results to the big money managers (not methods though). They will throw you money to manage and with your charging your 2 and 20 you will be on your way to becoming a multi millionaire.

Don't really fancy it tbh, don't need the money and like working where I am. And whilst I was making that then could I now? Markets are more efficient than they were so a bit of knowledge slightly earlier than the wider world is probably not so common. It was the OP who was looking at getting into it.

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You will have to find an edge to make money, and as you are a novice, I doubt that you will manage it and will most likely just be throwing your money away. However, if you really wanted to pursue it, you could try and get a job at an existing trading company, and then you might learn enough background information and strategies to make money without the infrastructure.

www.forexfactory.com

Good information on market news, which is very important. Having said that, although they get the figures out within a few seconds, you can see the reactions of the market through IG before you see the figures, so others with Reuters feeds and machines next door to the exchange are getting it much quicker than you.

The message boards are worth a read. Most of the people there are clueless. Some are not.

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It's not a rumour.

I know nothing about football and still managed to make 20p-60p on my £100 to start with and within weeks I had doubled the stake. I created a simple table in excel and if on entering all the win/lose/draw for a particular game 'Bertha' churned out 0.05 I'd be guaranteed to win. I got bored and altered my play to a 95% chance of winning making £5 each time but lost the full amount on the 4th go then gave up.

A few months later I tried to revitalise my machine and found the numbers no longer added up to anything other than a big fat 0 and that can only be down to the efficient automated arbitration by the likes of the millionaire and his two Russians.

Edit : I figured that the only way to continue this game was to exploit fan loyalty and the north/south divide betting outfit bias. i.e. running win/lose bets on different accounts and take the money people pledged on their ailing clubs that they were almost surely guaranteed to lose. I got into a headspin creating v1.02 of bertha and didn't follow it through.

One aspect that hasn't been mentioned is that there are often arbitrage opportunities across platforms - e.g. arbitraging betfair versus bluesquare etc., at least when I was involved in building an exchange platform. This was a couple of years ago, so I don't know whether the opportunities still exist. On a couple of european matches we saw opportunities of over 20%! These of course are few and far between and we had about 15 pcs grinding all day long, sampling prices across a set of markets every 20 seconds or so

The other thing to take into consideration is the fee structures that the exchanges charge. That can certainly turn a lot of arbitrages into definite losses, and you want a decent win% because broken legs in orders are quite common in active markets.

There is also statistical temporal arbitrage within a market, which is what the fellow I mentioned mainly does, but that requires a fair bit of knowledge and research. It's more sophisticated, so I suspect the opportunities will remain there longer than the simple "add 'em all up and see if you can guarantee a profit" approach.

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First thing to do is go through the school at BabyPips and open a demo account at fxpro download the metatrader4 chart software.

Like tiger woods said forex factory is a good place to go once you've been through the babypips school. You will find a million different ways to trade the markets but you only want one so stick with the established ones there.

Getting a method that you like and can stay confident with will take a long time.

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Trading is so difficult to make money on, especially for the private investor.

I follow all of the markets closely, but they just seem to move in such counter intuitive ways.

After the fact the commentators come up with their complex multi-variate explanations, but it seems to me there is much less logic in the markets than you think.

I think it's because all of the sensible arguments, known information, and likely outcomes are so efficiently reflected in the price that it really is reduced to betting on the unknowns and the movements of the crowd.

Investing over a slightly longer time horizon is probably less of a buzz, but probably more interesting and rewarding. I believe your own views and research can really give you an edge there.

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Trading is so difficult to make money on, especially for the private investor.

I follow all of the markets closely, but they just seem to move in such counter intuitive ways.

After the fact the commentators come up with their complex multi-variate explanations, but it seems to me there is much less logic in the markets than you think.

I think it's because all of the sensible arguments, known information, and likely outcomes are so efficiently reflected in the price that it really is reduced to betting on the unknowns and the movements of the crowd.

Investing over a slightly longer time horizon is probably less of a buzz, but probably more interesting and rewarding. I believe your own views and research can really give you an edge there.

Sounds like you take a fundamental analysis view, I always lost with this method. I prefere technical analysis, chart patterns, support and resistance etc.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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