Interesting Interview On Egypt

[okaycuckoo]

Not sure what has caused the revolution in north Africa. I watched a 5 minute interview on BBC with one of the men central to the protest in Cairo, and he made an outstanding point relevant to this forum. So not off-topic!

I caught it on TV at about 6pm, but can't find it on google. Help appreciated.

His name is Masoud, described as an Islamic scholar and a popular TV presenter in Egypt, speaks english with an American accent, about 30y old. Came across as a good-natured idealist, modestly denied that he had organised the protest, and emphasised the freedom of the people.

First thing he said: "Pharaoh has released his people. Thank you, Moses." Struck me as a wonderful metaphor for those worried about anti-Israel politics (or maybe a hidden cue for a new invasion of the promised land!). Then he was asked how the protests began: "Tunisia plus Facebook". He mentioned Facebook several times.

But the outstanding point came in a quick observation that young people walking around the streets had been wondering where all the money went - where's their share? - and were blaming corrupt business men connected to the ruling party. He seemed to have no doubt that was the real spark to the protest fuse.

Substitute "banker" for "business men", and I think the same spark will come in this country. Welfare payments and the refusal to recognise the awesome toll of bad debt in this country have kept the fuse from lighting.

Also, the commentators keep talking about this as history in the Middle East, but the Cairo protesters have given a great lead to everyone across the world.

Very pleased with people power in Iceland and Egypt. Hoping it spreads, especially to China.

[wonderpup]

There seems to be a determined effort to paint this as a revolution driven by ideology or religion for some reason, but it's pretty clear that it's really about wealth distribution and unemployment, especially amongst the young.

The Bankers are really just the obvious tip of an iceberg of wealth accumulation at the top- they perfectly symbolise the skewed state of the current system. Everyone- even the bankers themselves I suspect- knows that their 'compensation' is symptomatic of a broken system- these people are not entrepreneurs, not wealth creators, they are essentially managers and agents for the wealth of others.

The growing intolerance of the bankers conspicuous income will eventually be expanded to a wider intolerance of wealth in general as the majority find their world collapsing as the lucky few grow ever richer. This is not a recipe for a stable and balanced society.

Unless a way is found to more fairly share the fruits of the system, people will eventually seek a better system.

[Tired of Waiting]

Not sure what has caused the revolution in north Africa.

(...)

For now the young middle classes are at the front of it, but the Muslim Brotherhood is by far the strongest opposition there, with a guestimated support of at least 30% of the population, probably more, possibly much more. They are just keeping a low profile - for now.

The Iranian revolution also started with an alliance of liberals, left and religious forces. In the 1917 Russian revolution the liberal middle classes (Mensheviks) were soon overwhelmed by the communist Bolsheviks.

Things are just starting in Egypt. It will take months, years to... well, nobody knows.

And it may spread to other Arab countries (Oily Saudi Arabia?!), and even to countries further afield.

Total unknowns.

[OnlyMe]

Great piece in Asia Times.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB11Ak01.html

CRISIS IN EGYPT

Bread, dignity and lies

[Sledgehead]

Great piece in Asia Times.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB11Ak01.html

CRISIS IN EGYPT

Bread, dignity and lies

Under three decades of Mubarak, Egypt was kept poor - 116th place in the world for gross domestic product per capita. It's fair to say that lately it has been kept even poorer by Wall Street.

Corn is up 92% in a year, wheat is up 80% - with the usual knock-on effect on the cost of bread, meat and dairy products. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization has shown that global food prices have hit a record high, even higher than during the 2007/2008 food crisis. Food inflation now rules all over the world, not only Egypt (where, crucially, more than half of an average income goes for food; food price inflation in Egypt is at an enormous 17% a year).

But the absolute key point in all this is not rising demand from emerging giants such as India and China; cuts in food subsidies; states using more corn-based biofuel; or droughts and poor harvests in Russia, Australia, Argentina, or the next one in China. These are all factors. But to ask the protesters to pray for rain in China is a cheap shot. The absolute crucial factor is casino speculation by investment banks in food commodities.

But where did they get the money to do that?

The question is, how will the protestors on the streets of Egypt fix this? More wage rises, leading to more price rises? Subsidies perhaps, leading to price hikes in other countries and a debt bubble on their own soil? Maybe they could leave Tahrir Sq for Times Sq and call for an end to QE?

[scepticus]

First thing he said: "Pharaoh has released his people. Thank you, Moses." Struck me as a wonderful metaphor for those worried about anti-Israel politics (or maybe a hidden cue for a new invasion of the promised land!). Then he was asked how the protests began: "Tunisia plus Facebook". He mentioned Facebook several times.

People will scoff at social networking and the 'power of the internet', but I said not long before this crisis broke, "sooner or later these networks will emit something truly profound'.

The Egyptian situation is not just down to local facebook power - the eyes of the world, and by that I mean the gaze of the world's people is now on every major event that happens, particularly where the issues at stake are the same issues people face everywhere. This global focus, a global, whole humanity 'eye of sauron 'is focussed via through the lens of the various media on just a few specific situations at any one time.

That's why the army couldn't fire on the people, and why Mubarak had to go.

That's why it is different this time.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

Personally I don`t give a toss what is happening there, from morning to night all I get is the latest about it on the news.

If it has taken them over 30 years before they have decided enough is enough and the Tunisian affair has given them courage then fine.

They will probably end up with a Military Dictatorship and we will have more instability in the Middle East, then let`s hear what Obama and Hague have then to say.

[Tired of Waiting]

(...)

I caught it on TV at about 6pm, but can't find it on google. Help appreciated.

(...)

[Hywel Dda]

I have heard it reported a few times, on different news channels, that as well as the food shortages in Egypt, housing and property where high up on the list of peoples grievances.

The wealthy ruling elite getting all the planning . The people unable to afford a home without paying exorbitant prices etc.Leaving Young people with no hope.

Ring any Bells.

The scary thing i heard today on aljazeera was that the army itself are heavily into property ownership and property development, owning shopping malls ffs .

[okaycuckoo]

The question is, how will the protestors on the streets of Egypt fix this? More wage rises, leading to more price rises? Subsidies perhaps, leading to price hikes in other countries and a debt bubble on their own soil? Maybe they could leave Tahrir Sq for Times Sq and call for an end to QE?

Yes, very good point. Continuing food inflation may be the factor that justifies Tired of Waiting's cynicism, but I reckon the speculation in commodities will burst later this year - just like in 2008, but at a lower level. All eyes on China.

And what about young people in the west? Will they remain content with welfare, or do they assemble with Egyptian dignity? I'm not confident about the dignity, because they will probably lack the discipline and wisdom of the protesters in Cairo.

[Tired of Waiting]

(...) So not off-topic! (...)

Radio 4 just said that "jobs and apartments" were amongst the main complaints from the youth there. They can't marry, etc.

[scepticus]

It didn't stop the army firing on the people at Waco, Texas.

Oh for gods sake.

no-one worldwide gave a shit about those wackos.

make a sensible point.

[scepticus]

And what about young people in the west? Will they remain content with welfare, or do they assemble with Egyptian dignity? I'm not confident about the dignity, because they will probably lack the discipline and wisdom of the protesters in Cairo.

You presume too much.

I'd say the council estates are a tinderbox and all that is required is a small spark, all the more likely these days.

You seem to have a very short memory, to whit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_St._Pauls_riot

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

So Obama and Dave had said on the news tonight they hope to see a civilian Democratic Government.

They have more chance of being struck by lightning twice in the same place.

[scepticus]

The point is that the media played a big part in this revolution because the elite supported it.

rubbish. The 'elite' as you put it were waiting to see which way the wind would blow.

would the angry young facebookers be faced down by the gunmen?

no?

OK angry egyptian facebook people, we're with you.

This whole episode made me think of BO and his advisors literally sitting on a fence with a wet finger in the air.

Sooner or later the elite waiting to see which way the wind blows will find the cold air blowing up their own warm arses.

When that comes to pass, the current elite will of course be replaced with the new elite. But as someone once said, a change is as good as a rest, and I'm sending in my application form for NewElite membership any day now.

And of course in the real world this transition won't happen overnight. But its happened before and will do so again.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

As from tonight the Israelis now find they have to watch their front, back, and each side. Whereas before they only had to watch three sides.

[scepticus]

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” -- Voltaire

thats prevarication. I can quote any number of great philosophers who offer an opposite view, but what's the point of that?

take a position and stand by it. take a position based on fundamentals and make case for it otherwise you have nothing to say except 'maybe' and 'what if not, lets 'wait and see'' etc etc.

[tricksters]

So Obama and Dave had said on the news tonight they hope to see a civilian Democratic Government.

They have more chance of being struck by lightning twice in the same place.

What happens now, happens. But for Pete's sake why pour water on the enormity of what these people achieved? You sound pi&&ed off that they achieved it.

[Bruce Banner]

The army have played their cards to perfection, Egypt has martial law with the blessing of the people.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

What happens now, happens. But for Pete's sake why pour water on the enormity of what these people achieved? You sound pi&&ed off that they achieved it.

After years and years of studying the Middle East, you are way out of your depth here. The part of your quote I have put in bold is a load of old love grenades, you should watch and learn.

[OnlyMe]

As from tonight the Israelis now find they have to watch their front, back, and each side. Whereas before they only had to watch three sides.

Maybe they could sue GS and the FED for blowback.

[Bingo]

As from tonight the Israelis now find they have to watch their front, back, and each side. Whereas before they only had to watch three sides.

Nah, remember the military are in complete control in Egypt, not the people. The Egyptian army is funded by the US Government. No real change, the Israelis don't have much to worry about from Egypt.

What do you think this does to the NWO that our ex leader was banging on about a couple of years back?

[okaycuckoo]

You presume too much.

I'd say the council estates are a tinderbox and all that is required is a small spark, all the more likely these days.

You seem to have a very short memory, to whit:

http://en.wikipedia...._St._Pauls_riot

Yes, my memory is short - I've never heard of that Northern Ireland style assault on the people!

I'm pretty sure the suburbs are a tinderbox as well - there has been an untold reduction in the standard of living there, although it does seem to be levelling out. Apart from the gentle waterfall in house prices. Hehe.

Point is - do subsidised western populations have the the same character as those people in Egypt? The dignity and patience. I say No - they will provoke violence.

[tallguy]

Up to now, this so called "revolution" in Egypt has only been "allowed" to happen because of certain calculations made by the Egyptian top-brass under American pressure.

Firstly, Mubarak was only in power for thirty years because of massive American support in the form of military weapons of mass-supression. America would have been quite happy to have seen Mubarak continue in power until he was eventually replaced in an orderly manner by another military hard-man who was prepared to be an American poodle.

The fact is, though, the sheer number of protesters on the streets of Egypt meant that Mubarak was going to have to be replaced a lot sooner than was envisaged. Even so, the military top-brass were extremely reluctant to get rid of one of their own and only did so in the final hours following clear indications from the Yanks that they would pull the plug on support for the military elite if Mubarak didn't go immediately. America only did this because they saw the game was finally up. They knew, following Mubarak's pathetic speech attempting to hold onto power yesterday, that there was now a serious risk of a genuine violent uprising of the Egyptian people. If that happened, a tinderbox of anger and frustration all over the American-supported puppet states of the Middle-East could blow up in their faces Thus, the ousting of Mubarak was the least worst option for the Yanks and their puppet elites to take. Also, it was becoming clear in the last 24 hours that a lot of the younger military officer-class and the vast majority of the foot-soldiers sided with the protesters.

If they had held onto Mubarak there would have been a real likelihood of thousands of Egyptians lying dead on the streets. This would have run the risk of the army falling apart as well as causing a region-wide bloody revolution of the people. As I have said, this was the elite's least worst option. Though, they only took it with some serious cajoling from the Americans. The most likely outcome, from this point onwards, is that the Egyptian military leaders will make all kinds of vague promises to the people whilst, at the same time, quietly regain control in an even more violent vice-like grip than was the case before.

The only thing that will bring about real change is when these b*stards are all hanging from lamposts in the streets of Cairo. It probably won't happen of course. But, the only thing that will truly rid the Middle-East of these murderous psychopaths is their violent removal and this will, in the end, be in the face of a violent resistance from our own Western governments, no matter what hypocritical warm words we might be hearing from them at the moment. And of course, it'll be our sons and daughters who will be enrolled in the task of such violent resistance of the will of the people of this region. All in the name of "freedom", "democracy" and the "War on Terror" you understand.....

It's all f*cked up

[wonderpup]

I am not so sure that this revolution was driven by the above. I suspect it was backed by the very group of elites that you describe later on in your post. More of Godfather like instruction for a Mafia Boss to be whacked to make way for a new more aligned and subservient Mafia Boss.

There is no member of any government or organisation anywhere on the planet that is entirely happy about what just happened in Egypt- whatever they might say in public. The symbolism of a leader being deposed by the led is never desirable in the eyes of anyone who wields power of any kind. Had there been any way at all for any combination of elite influence to prevent this globally witnessed display of failed power they would have prevented it.