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Realistbear

Move Up Market Collapses:: "housing Market Has Ground To A Halt."

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:lol: Don't take it too literally.

Think phytoplankton in the worlds oceans. Essential for life. As are FTB's in the housing market.

In which case you (he?) means "bottom of the food chain".

bottom feeder has (two) quite different connotations to the above.

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They'll sit on the empty properties, to keep their mark to market pretence - they won't market them.

The banks are incompetent and unfit for purpoase. They are parasitic and perform almost no useful function in comparison to the past. They are ineffcient, make bad judgement calls and are largly gambling dens poncing off the taxpayer for funds when they lose. They couldn;t run a real business to save ther life, they will certainly be shit at running a BTL portfolio. Bet a lot of these houses end up as squats.

I'm thinking the same thing. It's no wonder the Tories are working on new tresspass laws. A few countries have come down hard on squatters recently.

Countdown to the inevitable Daily Mail hate campaign.

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Guest sillybear2

The bottom end of the market must have been toast for sometime now, but yet the FTB places don't seem to be dropping at all, at least not where I'm looking.

I think "ponzi fodder" is much more endearing.

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EDIT: Damn - beaten to it whilst conducting 'research'.

But your post is much more entertaining.

Detritivore - nice.

I wonder what the term for a BTL is... Ah - Parasite :)

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I have just seen a hosue come on the market for over 1,600,000. The same house was on the market at the height of the bubble for about 1 million to 1.2 million - I posted about it on here at the time because they were offering some flash motor if you bought it.

The area it is in is just a typical suburb but the particular road is, IMPO, very dark and manky as the woods give the area a dark and damp feel.

But now it is now for 1.6 million or thereabout.

Another house just down the road from me - 250K at height of bubble now has asking price of nearly 450K - just came on market today.

This is one crazy contry.

Oh, and the news is annoucing that the CML is saying that there were more mortgages in 2010 than in 2009 but every month last year we were told that monthly numbers were down. How's that work then? :unsure:

Wales and Austrlia are in the same boat I am afraid. HPI is uniquely raging in both areas. Best move to the SE where prices are crashing--literally. Wales will never drop and can only rise due to pent up demand, shortage of supply, and the fact that it is the British Riviera--especially Swansea area.

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The bottom end of the market must have been toast for sometime now, but yet the FTB places don't seem to be dropping at all, at least not where I'm looking.

We were FTBers in 2001 - paid £105k for a new build 3 bed semi.

Sold for £168k in 2006

There are now 2 Identical houses on the same cul-de-sac on at £175k.. and surprisingly, there are not many FTBers in North Somerset with the £25k deposit and £50k pa income required to tie themselves to one of these houses for life. I'm pretty sure that local wages have not gone up 35% in the last decade.

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Thing is, the government is telling people that it's going to get lenders lending again so they think that this is a temporary stall.

What we need (but won't happen) is for the govt. to say "you know what, it's all overpriced, take the hit"..

They already took the hit thats why they won;t lend now.

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Too many people in this country associate the quality of their life with the financial value of their assets. For many, accepting that those assets are worth less involves feelings of failure and depression, even if they can afford to take the hit. No wonder that so money prefer to take the option of denial instead.

IMO taking stock of the relationships you have is a much better indication of the likely quality of your life, which is especially true given that those who have many close family and friendships generally live longer and are happier. The happiest times in my life have generally been times when I've had far less finances than I do now!

Oh I don't know. Better to be rich and happy than poor and miserable.

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We were FTBers in 2001 - paid £105k for a new build 3 bed semi.

Sold for £168k in 2006

There are now 2 Identical houses on the same cul-de-sac on at £175k.. and surprisingly, there are not many FTBers in North Somerset with the £25k deposit and £50k pa income required to tie themselves to one of these houses for life. I'm pretty sure that local wages have not gone up 35% in the last decade.

LOL.

There are plenty of examples of this in Glasgow. And they sit on rightmove for years. This market is collapsing, it's just the psychology that keeps the nonsense going.

However, reality is just about kicking in. I'm changing my prediction from slow real price depreciation to a Crash, based on the 30% drop in about 50% of FTB properties I keep my eye on. And the cotinued inability to sell them.

It's all macroeconomics and sentiment to the VI's and governments. Microeconomics and reality will destroy all of that.

*** Please see my sig below - more ideological rubbish from the Russell group disguised as prudence. Please help.

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Bad analogy - the ones at the top are the bottom feeders, preying on the credit of those starting out in the chain.

To call someone wanting to buy a house of their own a "bottom feeder" is insulting.

I agree with an addition - the established owners in our system are parasitically feeding off the FTBs and other landless

Edited by Stars

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I have just seen a hosue come on the market for over 1,600,000. The same house was on the market at the height of the bubble for about 1 million to 1.2 million - I posted about it on here at the time because they were offering some flash motor if you bought it.

The area it is in is just a typical suburb but the particular road is, IMPO, very dark and manky as the woods give the area a dark and damp feel.

But now it is now for 1.6 million or thereabout.

Another house just down the road from me - 250K at height of bubble now has asking price of nearly 450K - just came on market today.

This is one crazy contry.

Oh, and the news is annoucing that the CML is saying that there were more mortgages in 2010 than in 2009 but every month last year we were told that monthly numbers were down. How's that work then? :unsure:

Any crooked mortgage brokers in your area?

FSA figures on non-income verified mortgages in 2010:

Q1 2010: 43%

Q2 2010: 37%

Q3 2010: 32%

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Yes this is quite normal for the property market and a major consideration for a seller. Owners that dont need to sell will simply continue to live in the house longer as that is a far better option than selling for a lesser gain, this will always be a major support for house prices. If you dont have a willing seller then you dont have a market value. The majority own their house as opposed to the minority of investors that may lose their bottle and quit. So the owners set the floor on pricing not the buyers and this market reality should never be forgotten.

Bit in bold; Achieved sales set the floor on pricing, what an "owner" or owner chooses to do is irrelevant. The bit not in bold is rubbish ,as this level of bubble has never been experienced before, how do you know how people will react as they see the extent of their loss?

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Yes this is quite normal for the property market and a major consideration for a seller. Owners that dont need to sell will simply continue to live in the house longer as that is a far better option than selling for a lesser gain, this will always be a major support for house prices. If you dont have a willing seller then you dont have a market value. The majority own their house as opposed to the minority of investors that may lose their bottle and quit. So the owners set the floor on pricing not the buyers and this market reality should never be forgotten.

What you have said is correct in a bull market and false in a bear market.

In the UK, we might finally be entering into a market where the thinking of bears dominates. The pull back and recovery in 2008 - 2009 was still dominated by bull market thinking when we had a -20% move followed by a + 10% move.

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They'll sit on the empty properties, to keep their mark to market pretence - they won't market them.

The banks are incompetent and unfit for purpoase. They are parasitic and perform almost no useful function in comparison to the past. They are ineffcient, make bad judgement calls and are largly gambling dens poncing off the taxpayer for funds when they lose. They couldn;t run a real business to save ther life, they will certainly be shit at running a BTL portfolio. Bet a lot of these houses end up as squats.

You forgot to add that they are rewarded with massive salaries and huge bonuses/leaving presents for trading as such at management+ levels.

Talking about trading, normal acceptable rules don't apply to their 'business model' as most are insolvent shells as they use Usury as a weapon against peoples of UK.

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The thinking of bears may be a stronger hand but at the end of the day they still have to get a willing seller to sell. This is the market price and it cant go any lower than this. The owners provide more traction on the way down than a market dominated by investors such as the share market. Any seasoned property investor will tell you that this differentiator is a major risk reduction factor when investing in property in comparison to other assets. The other one being that even if the seller sells they don't leave the market either.

These were selling at $175,000 at the peak of the bubble.

You can now buy 50 of them for $2 million or about $40k each.

http://www.avalonhillscondos.com/?gclid=CIXM0YfZg6cCFUYe4QodICkSfA

Reluctant sellers do control prices at the early stages of the collapse of a bubble. They have no control whatsoever when the collapse becomes self reinforcing.

To assume that all sellers are always willing is naive at best. At times, their positions get liquidated through processes over which they have no control at all.

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The thinking of bears may be a stronger hand but at the end of the day they still have to get a willing seller to sell. This is the market price and it cant go any lower than this. The owners provide more traction on the way down than a market dominated by investors such as the share market. Any seasoned property investor will tell you that this differentiator is a major risk reduction factor when investing in property in comparison to other assets. The other one being that even if the seller sells they don't leave the market either.

All excellent points. Housing is less liquid than other markets yet at the same time it remains a basic necessity.

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The example above is one targeted at investors and it looks like 100% investment. Normal houses are about 40% investment at the most and less so in desirable areas or for property with larger land ratio to building size. There is an abundance of posts on here describing where sellers have decided to not sell and wait it out. Of course sellers can get distressed but they are in the minority and thanks to the good old owner not selling and providing a floor price the seller gets the benefit of that support and exits at that level. Only to buy back in or lease similar product from the same market. Other than this a seller is 100% in control of their decision to sell.

Most posters are only considering a buyers position and are not considering a sellers position. The worlds pubs are full of aggressive would be buyers that are forever procrastinating and targeting that bargain basement bonanza deal. A downloaded copy of "Negotiation Skills for Dummies" would do them no harm.

Perhaps "Understanding Net Yields For Dummies" would also be helpful.

As I have said before, a financial commitment in rationally priced markets of 25% of the purchase price of my current rental will pay for the rent on my current home on an after tax basis. In this case, buy in Arizona at a cash buyer's price and rent in NW London where yields are pathetic and prices are astronomical.

Shelter costs are paid from income. Prices are paid from credit availability. This is the reason that net rental yields in the UK have at least halved in the last decade : shelter costs have remained roughly stable relative to incomes while prices have exploded higher due to lax credit policies.

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The thinking of bears may be a stronger hand but at the end of the day they still have to get a willing seller to sell. This is the market price and it cant go any lower than this. The owners provide more traction on the way down than a market dominated by investors such as the share market. Any seasoned property investor will tell you that this differentiator is a major risk reduction factor when investing in property in comparison to other assets. The other one being that even if the seller sells they don't leave the market either.

The highly leveraged are not owners, they are debtors, as I said above, we have never experienced this level of leverage, what makes you think there will not be a mass run for the exits when the penny drops that the borrowing can not be passed on to a greater fool?

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If you strip it right back to Maslows hierarchy of needs it becomes clearer why land is the basis of all wealth.

The most basic fundamental human need is for food. All food including the supply of drinking water is derived from land.

The second most basic fundamental human need is for shelter. All shelter is derived from land.

I cannot think of any asset that is not derived from land.

Pussey? I suppose if you had loads of land more pussey would turn up, but it`s not a strict correlation?

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  • 317 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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