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Realistbear

Move Up Market Collapses:: "housing Market Has Ground To A Halt."

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1355786/Housing-market-grinds-halt-Those-moving-home-hits-lowest-level.html

Those moving home hits lowest-ever level as housing market grinds to a halt
By Becky "Bex" Barrow
Britain's housing market has ground to a halt, with the number of those moving home collapsing to the lowest level since records began, official figures revealed yesterday.
Owners who want to move are stuck in their homes, crippled by the frozen mortgage market, the huge deposits demanded by lenders and high stamp duty.
Just 534,000 homeowners moved in 2009, the last year for which figures are available, a plunge of 45 per cent on 2008.

KIll the bottomfeeders (FTBs) and the market collapses. When jobs go and bills soar people will be forced to reduce prices and then the crash will grease the wheels of the market.

In the meantime, let us remember the valiant EAs who are only making a fractionof the living they were making back in the days of LIAR LOANS and bouyant sales.

Daily Mail comment:

Unless and until house prices reflect people's ability to pay, the market will collapse in on itself. We are entering an era of austerity caused by huge levels of debt and the LAST thing people can cope with is MORE debt misery. Easpecially to buy still overpriced properties that are falling in value on a daily basis. House prices will simply have to collapse by around 40% and then the market will start to move. As it is, FTBs are priced out and move ups are now priced out. The only people who are not priced out are the Banksters and their poltical puppets.
- Real Istbear, Brighton UK, 11/2/2011 9:51
Edited by Realistbear

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KIll the bottomfeeders (FTBs) and the market collapses. When jobs go and bills soar people will be forced to reduce prices and then the crash will grease the wheels of the market.

The bottom end of the market must have been toast for sometime now, but yet the FTB places don't seem to be dropping at all, at least not where I'm looking.

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KIll the bottomfeeders (FTBs) and the market collapses. When jobs go and bills soar people will be forced to reduce prices and then the crash will grease the wheels of the market.

Good analogy. Same in any ecosystem I guess.

Bad analogy - the ones at the top are the bottom feeders, preying on the credit of those starting out in the chain.

To call someone wanting to buy a house of their own a "bottom feeder" is insulting.

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The bottom end of the market must have been toast for sometime now, but yet the FTB places don't seem to be dropping at all, at least not where I'm looking.

There'll always be a big lag before people start accepting that it's a choice between dropping the price or not selling it, and before accepting a loss on the overpriced asset becomes a bigger motivation than it being a millstone around the neck. There seems to be an acceptance at last that things are going down, but I suspect that at the moment a lot of potential sellers are still thinking that they'll be able to hang on until they go up again. Also, at the FTB end of the market there will be quite a few who overpaid massively now, don't have anything they can downsize to, and can't even move sideways whilst in negative equity. I can't see that ending until the redundancies kick in, and the banks start to repossess. I'm not sure what'll trigger them to do that.

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There'll always be a big lag before people start accepting that it's a choice between dropping the price or not selling it, and before accepting a loss on the overpriced asset becomes a bigger motivation than it being a millstone around the neck. There seems to be an acceptance at last that things are going down, but I suspect that at the moment a lot of potential sellers are still thinking that they'll be able to hang on until they go up again. Also, at the FTB end of the market there will be quite a few who overpaid massively now, don't have anything they can downsize to, and can't even move sideways whilst in negative equity. I can't see that ending until the redundancies kick in, and the banks start to repossess. I'm not sure what'll trigger them to do that.

They'll sit on the empty properties, to keep their mark to market pretence - they won't market them.

The banks are incompetent and unfit for purpoase. They are parasitic and perform almost no useful function in comparison to the past. They are ineffcient, make bad judgement calls and are largly gambling dens poncing off the taxpayer for funds when they lose. They couldn;t run a real business to save ther life, they will certainly be shit at running a BTL portfolio. Bet a lot of these houses end up as squats.

Edited by OnlyMe

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I have just seen a hosue come on the market for over 1,600,000. The same house was on the market at the height of the bubble for about 1 million to 1.2 million - I posted about it on here at the time because they were offering some flash motor if you bought it.

The area it is in is just a typical suburb but the particular road is, IMPO, very dark and manky as the woods give the area a dark and damp feel.

But now it is now for 1.6 million or thereabout.

Another house just down the road from me - 250K at height of bubble now has asking price of nearly 450K - just came on market today.

This is one crazy contry.

Oh, and the news is annoucing that the CML is saying that there were more mortgages in 2010 than in 2009 but every month last year we were told that monthly numbers were down. How's that work then? :unsure:

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View Postsinglemalt, on 11 February 2011 - 10:12 AM, said:

View PostRealistbear, on 11 February 2011 - 09:47 AM, said:

KIll the bottomfeeders (FTBs) and the market collapses. When jobs go and bills soar people will be forced to reduce prices and then the crash will grease the wheels of the market.

Good analogy. Same in any ecosystem I guess.

Bad analogy - the ones at the top are the bottom feeders, preying on the credit of those starting out in the chain.

To call someone wanting to buy a house of their own a "bottom feeder" is insulting.

:lol: Don't take it too literally.

Think phytoplankton in the worlds oceans. Essential for life. As are FTB's in the housing market.

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Thing is, the government is telling people that it's going to get lenders lending again so they think that this is a temporary stall.

What we need (but won't happen) is for the govt. to say "you know what, it's all overpriced, take the hit"..

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CML stats out for December. Less than 40,000 house purchase loans. Last month revised down by 2,500 (as usual ;) ).

Only 14,500 FTB house purchase loans at average LTV of 77%. Average FTB deposit £35,000.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2838

Edit: added 'house purchase' for clarity.

So the previous month was revised down by more than 5%? That's a joke how can their initial data be so incomplete/inaccurate.

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Thing is, the government is telling people that it's going to get lenders lending again so they think that this is a temporary stall.

What we need (but won't happen) is for the govt. to say "you know what, it's all overpriced, take the hit"..

Well I listened carefully to the announcements from the Govt and there was only mention of lending to small businesses...

so BTLers only! :lol:

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What we need (but won't happen) is for the govt. to say "you know what, it's all overpriced, take the hit"..

you forget that many MPs, ministers and their families are in BTL business themselves...

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Too many people in this country associate the quality of their life with the financial value of their assets. For many, accepting that those assets are worth less involves feelings of failure and depression, even if they can afford to take the hit. No wonder that so money prefer to take the option of denial instead.

IMO taking stock of the relationships you have is a much better indication of the likely quality of your life, which is especially true given that those who have many close family and friendships generally live longer and are happier. The happiest times in my life have generally been times when I've had far less finances than I do now!

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I have just seen a hosue come on the market for over 1,600,000. The same house was on the market at the height of the bubble for about 1 million to 1.2 million - I posted about it on here at the time because they were offering some flash motor if you bought it.

The area it is in is just a typical suburb but the particular road is, IMPO, very dark and manky as the woods give the area a dark and damp feel.

But now it is now for 1.6 million or thereabout.

Another house just down the road from me - 250K at height of bubble now has asking price of nearly 450K - just came on market today.

This is one crazy contry.

Oh, and the news is annoucing that the CML is saying that there were more mortgages in 2010 than in 2009 but every month last year we were told that monthly numbers were down. How's that work then? :unsure:

There are some real chancers still out there who think it's still 2006-2007.

Property Bee reveals all sorts of nonsense. I've seen a place put onto market for 300k back in June, RAISED to 350k, cut back to 300k, and now cut again to £250k. Haart seem particularly bad offenders with messing prices around. The penny is dropping slowly but surely. There's simply not enough idiots willing to pay silly prices. Money's too tight to mention.

Edited by Van

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Apparently in London FTB's are being replaced by foreign purchasers as they start to buy in less prime suburbs, as a way to park (hide) their cash in a "perceived safe haven" (Today's property section in the Times so no link.. <_< ). So the London market no longer needs FTBs??? :huh:

If its true then London might experience an interesting phenonmenon where the locals are stuck in their 1/2 bed flats unable to trade up to houses. A recipe for huge social and political conflict in the future methinks......

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Too many people in this country associate the quality of their life with the financial value of their assets. For many, accepting that those assets are worth less involves feelings of failure and depression, even if they can afford to take the hit. No wonder that so money prefer to take the option of denial instead.

IMO taking stock of the relationships you have is a much better indication of the likely quality of your life, which is especially true given that those who have many close family and friendships generally live longer and are happier. The happiest times in my life have generally been times when I've had far less finances than I do now!

I think there was some research done on investors that while an investment gain makes you happy, an equivalent loss makes you more unhappy than the gain made you happy.

Typical pseudoscientific bs I suspect, but it may go some way to explain your first paragraph. in that it is universal rather than just this country.

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There are some real chancers still out there who think it's still 2006-2007.

Property Bee reveals all sorts of nonsense. I've seen a place put onto market for 300k back in June, RAISED to 350k, cut back to 300k, and now cut again to £250k. Haart seem particularly bad offenders with messing prices around. The penny is dropping slowly but surely. There's simply not enough idiots willing to pay silly prices. Money's too tight to mention.

In the past week what is really interesting is the number of mid to very high end houses that have come on the market in SA2 and SA3.

Many of them are in areas where I know lots of middle to senior public sector managers work which makes me wonder whether they are selling up because they have been, or are about to be, made redundant.

But, as you say, many are chancers believing it is 2007 still.

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So the previous month was revised down by more than 5%? That's a joke how can their initial data be so incomplete/inaccurate.

Last four CML revisions from first release:

Aug  -1,600Sep  -2,100Oct  -2,400Nov  -2,500

It's getting worse. :)

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I think there was some research done on investors that while an investment gain makes you happy, an equivalent loss makes you more unhappy than the gain made you happy.

Typical pseudoscientific bs I suspect, but it may go some way to explain your first paragraph. in that it is universal rather than just this country.

Not bs in my case I can assure you bob. Irrational maybe, but true.

I think it's because the gains are expected, but the losses are a blow to the ego. That's why taking losses on a bad bet is so hard for most investors to do, even when the evidence for doing so is staring you in the face.

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Last four CML revisions from first release:

Aug  -1,600Sep  -2,100Oct  -2,400Nov  -2,500

It's getting worse. :)

They are huge numbers considering that figures are around the 40,000 area. Might be worth emailing them to ask for an explanation.

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Apparently in London FTB's are being replaced by foreign purchasers as they start to buy in less prime suburbs, as a way to park (hide) their cash in a "perceived safe haven" (Today's property section in the Times so no link.. <_< ). So the London market no longer needs FTBs??? :huh:

What nonsense.

Stuff like "The market no longer needs FTBs" is simply VI-talk. Without FTBs the whole market dies.

I can hardly see the Bahrain royal family setting up a BTL empire in Hackney.

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Apparently in London FTB's are being replaced by foreign purchasers as they start to buy in less prime suburbs, as a way to park (hide) their cash in a "perceived safe haven" (Today's property section in the Times so no link.. <_< ). So the London market no longer needs FTBs??? :huh:

If its true then London might experience an interesting phenonmenon where the locals are stuck in their 1/2 bed flats unable to trade up to houses. A recipe for huge social and political conflict in the future methinks......

A lot of the rest of the market in the Uk relies on money extracted from London sales supporting (read completely ******ing up) the market elsewhere.

Number of domicle owners dries up so does that lolly spewing out to the provinces.

Long term this market in total is knackered. Like you say though that could be nothing compared to the social and political upheaval.

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They are huge numbers considering that figures are around the 40,000 area. Might be worth emailing them to ask for an explanation.

I suspect it is a reflection of more mortgages being agreed but then collapsing through lack of funding or the buyer getting cold feet or losing their job.

Edited by Van

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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