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Realistbear

U.k. House Prices Decline For A Fourth Month, Acadametrics Says

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/u-k-house-prices-fall-for-fourth-month-on-recovery-concerns-loan-limits.html

U.K. House Prices Decline for a Fourth Month, Acadametrics Says
U.K. house prices fell for a fourth month in January after the economic recovery stuttered and consumers faced a lack of mortgage finance, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said today.
The average price of a home in England and Wales declined 0.1 percent to 221,211 pounds ($354,933) from December, they said in a report issued in London today. Values are up 0.6 percent from a year earlier.

If the average house costs £221k the market really IS in trouble. That must be about 8 X average salary. Oh well, every little bit of HPI dream busting news is good I suppose.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/u-k-house-prices-fall-for-fourth-month-on-recovery-concerns-loan-limits.html

U.K. House Prices Decline for a Fourth Month, Acadametrics Says
U.K. house prices fell for a fourth month in January after the economic recovery stuttered and consumers faced a lack of mortgage finance, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said today.
The average price of a home in England and Wales declined 0.1 percent to 221,211 pounds ($354,933) from December, they said in a report issued in London today. Values are up 0.6 percent from a year earlier.

If the average house costs £221k the market really IS in trouble. That must be about 8 X average salary. Oh well, every little bit of HPI dream busting news is good I suppose.

I would say that is more like 10 x average salary

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I would say that is more like 10 x average salary

With increased taxation and inflation outstripping earnings then that ratio is getting over more irrelvent when comparing to previous ratios.

This market is ******ed and so are those entering it at any extended earnings multiple.

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Average for east anglia is 15k.

Average for people in their young twenties probably lower (unless you happen to get more on benefits?).

What people think the average wage is and what is actually is - are two completely different things.

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With increased taxation and inflation outstripping earnings then that ratio is getting over more irrelvent when comparing to previous ratios.

This market is ******ed and so are those entering it at any extended earnings multiple.

Not just those with extended earnings mortgages, cash buyers don't like losing money either.

The market really is in trouble if estate agent owned Acadametrics are reporting a decline. If they're showing a 0.1% fall, the real, pre massaged, figure is probably nearer to 1.0% ;).

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Another guess from the estate agent index!

Last couple of months have been revised down further to -0.3 and -0.5.

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/LSL%20Acad%20HPI%20News%20Release%20January%2011.pdf

Nice drop in transactions. And the comparison of indicies chart looking good.

There's a precipice point where the rate of dilution and destruction of earnings/savings through inflation makes any justification of a high multiple mortgage utterly untenable. It is approaching rapidly with wages going up at 2% ish and basic costs going up 10%+.

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Not just those with extended earnings mortgages, cash buyers don't like losing money either.

The market really is in trouble if estate agent owned Acadametrics are reporting a decline. If they're showing a 0.1% fall, the real, pre massaged, figure is probably nearer to 1.0% ;).

Very true.

Frictional transaction costs too. 7 moves in your lifetime? Not a fooking chance.

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It will be nicely negative next month as Feb 2010 showed an unusually large 1.6 rise.

NEVER but NEVER underestimate the ability of the team at acadatakingthemictrix to fudge a set of data!

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NEVER but NEVER underestimate the ability of the team at acadatakingthemictrix to fudge a set of data!

True. The initial figure will probably 1.7% just enough to stay yoy positive before being gradually revised down to -0.5% over the next three months.

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It seems they can revise previous months' data at any chosen moment. This gives the rather handy ability to put out a very minor headline figure MoM fall that doesn't attract much interest and then revise that down and down in the small print of future releases.

I see recent monthly data they originally had as plus 0.2% and 0.3% have now been revised even further down again to -0.5%.

Did they do the same on the way up I wonder, ie, small price increases were reported which were then revised significantly upwards later? I very much doubt it!

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Their YoY has gone from +2.9% to +0.6% :o

Comparing Feb2010 price (£223,496) with Jan's 2011 price (£221,211) the Year-on-Year change is actually -1.0.

Funny how the Year-on-Year figure reported by ALL the indices is higher than comparing the current price with the price the year before. You'd think there was a conspiracy :)

Edited by Unsafe As Houses

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RB, describing Acadametrics as a "VI source" is like saying the traffic lights have a personal vendetta against you because they're on red!
Academetrics is probably the best single source of house price information as it also includes cash purchases, the Nationwide and Halifax are based only on mortgaged properties, so when mortgage offers decline they become progressively less representative of the market as a whole.
Hey, I'm a card carrying member of the HPC party, I sold to rent in 2005 and am now looking to buy back in. So I'm hoping house prices fall as fast and as far as possible. But I don't want to let my hopes take over from my reason, and that means respecting quality data sources.
Yes, house prices are falling (that's also what Acadametrics is showing) but there are still quite a few hurdles before you and I will get the houses we want at the prices we want to pay,
1. The brutal fact is that repposessions are what's really needed to bring on a full scale crash, but repposessions actually fell in 2010. Most people expect them to grow in 2011, but it will then take some time before this feeds through into lower prices.
2. The really big falls will be with flats. I (and I think you) are looking for family houses. These will fall too, but less than the overall market.
3. And within family homes the good properties that ticks all the boxes are always in short supply. What I saw in the 1989-95 crash is that during a crash the good properties become even rarer still. I want a sunny and private back garden (so strike off straight away the 50% of British homes with a north or east facing garden), a reasonable ratio of bathrooms to bedrooms, plentiful storage, off-road parking and a decent garage, a kitchen big enough for a table, etc. In other words I want a great house at a good price, not a compromised house on the cheap. Those houses are out there, but it'll take patience and perseverance to find them.

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RB, describing Acadametrics as a "VI source" is like saying the traffic lights have a personal vendetta against you because they're on red!

Academetrics is probably the best single source of house price information as it also includes cash purchases, the Nationwide and Halifax are based only on mortgaged properties, so when mortgage offers decline they become progressively less representative of the market as a whole.

Nope they have a huge VI.

See this thread for more info on academagictrix

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=157624&view=&hl=&fromsearch=1

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RB, describing Acadametrics as a "VI source" is like saying the traffic lights have a personal vendetta against you because they're on red!

Academetrics is probably the best single source of house price information as it also includes cash purchases, the Nationwide and Halifax are based only on mortgaged properties, so when mortgage offers decline they become progressively less representative of the market as a whole.

Hey, I'm a card carrying member of the HPC party, I sold to rent in 2005 and am now looking to buy back in. So I'm hoping house prices fall as fast and as far as possible. But I don't want to let my hopes take over from my reason, and that means respecting quality data sources.

Yes, house prices are falling (that's also what Acadametrics is showing) but there are still quite a few hurdles before you and I will get the houses we want at the prices we want to pay,

1. The brutal fact is that repposessions are what's really needed to bring on a full scale crash, but repposessions actually fell in 2010. Most people expect them to grow in 2011, but it will then take some time before this feeds through into lower prices.

2. The really big falls will be with flats. I (and I think you) are looking for family houses. These will fall too, but less than the overall market.

3. And within family homes the good properties that ticks all the boxes are always in short supply. What I saw in the 1989-95 crash is that during a crash the good properties become even rarer still. I want a sunny and private back garden (so strike off straight away the 50% of British homes with a north or east facing garden), a reasonable ratio of bathrooms to bedrooms, plentiful storage, off-road parking and a decent garage, a kitchen big enough for a table, etc. In other words I want a great house at a good price, not a compromised house on the cheap. Those houses are out there, but it'll take patience and perseverance to find them.

Take a look at who is behind dese guys and who they really work for. Probably the biggest VI of them all. They are corrupt data manipulators--average house price is way off.

acadametrix.gif

post-1066-0-94908900-1297424607_thumb.gif

Edited by Realistbear

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Take a look at who is behind dese guys and who they really work for. Probably the biggest VI of them all. They are corrupt data manipulators--average house price is way off.

And look at who is behind the Halifax and Nationwide figures!

The Acadametrics estimate of average house price is probably the most accurate of any data source. Staggeringly and unsustainably high I agree, but the numbers are still the numbers.

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We fear it is going to be a long while before we get the type of property we want in the area we want at the price we want.

A lot of people in the area we are specifically looking at are second homes and/or people who are now just content to rent them out and/or only sell if they can get stupidly inflated (2007+10% still now) prices.

Most of the property we have looked at in the last 6 months has needed a good tidy up and redecorate because of the shabbiness they are in due to being rented out and walls/woodwork getting knocked about. Nothing serious but nevertheless needing attending too.

As I have said in many other posts - many of the properties on the other side of town are dropping but they are not in the same league as the side of town we want. The divide is just getting larger.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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