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Misanthrope

Jeremy Warner In The Telegraph

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The Bank and Treasury constantly bang on about the need to rebalance the UK economy, but their actions seem invariably to push in the other direction. The continued maintainance of substantially negative real interest rates is damaging savers and supporting unsustainably high house prices. As I wrote for this morning’s Daily Telegraph column, it’s the very antithesis of the rebalancing the UK economy so desperately needs.

Full article: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100009471/well-theres-a-surprise-no-change-in-interest-rates/

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Jezza didn't fear the risks too much when he took out a jumbo mortgage in late 2003 early 2004.

Convinced himself it was all going to be ok.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/outlook-excessive-debt-may-not-be-the-timebomb-widely-assumed-576382.html

And that reminds me. I've not read anything by young Edmund Conway. Oh this might explain why I've not seen as many of his stories.

Edmund Conway

I was, until recently, Economics Editor of The Telegraph.

The young lad has a big mortgage to pay.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertymarket/wordonthestreet/3360981/Property-market-Word-on-the-street.html

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Jezza didn't fear the risks too much when he took out a jumbo mortgage in late 2003 early 2004.

Convinced himself it was all going to be ok.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/outlook-excessive-debt-may-not-be-the-timebomb-widely-assumed-576382.html

And that reminds me. I've not read anything by young Edmund Conway. Oh this might explain why I've not seen as many of his stories.

The young lad has a big mortgage to pay.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertymarket/wordonthestreet/3360981/Property-market-Word-on-the-street.html

In Warner's defence, at least he's now arguing for higher interest rates while having a vested interest in keeping them low.

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Jezza didn't fear the risks too much when he took out a jumbo mortgage in late 2003 early 2004.

Convinced himself it was all going to be ok.

http://www.independe...med-576382.html

And that reminds me. I've not read anything by young Edmund Conway. Oh this might explain why I've not seen as many of his stories.

The young lad has a big mortgage to pay.

http://www.telegraph...the-street.html

I am sure a "whacking great extra mortgage" in 2003/4 wasn'tt quite the same as a "whacking great extra mortgage" in 2007 - the language having changed and the salary multiples risen,

To be fair, if he has a repayment mortgage, a good chunk of it should have gone by now also in 8 years.

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To be fair, if he has a repayment mortgage, a good chunk of it should have gone by now also in 8 years.

This is not really how a mortgage works though. After 8 years (almost a third of the term) a typical borrower will have paid back only 20% of the principal. Not really a 'good chunk' as it means there is still 80% of the job to do in the remaining two-thirds of the term. And that's assuming he hasn't MEWed for a new kitchen etc.

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I am sure a "whacking great extra mortgage" in 2003/4 wasn'tt quite the same as a "whacking great extra mortgage" in 2007 - the language having changed and the salary multiples risen,

To be fair, if he has a repayment mortgage, a good chunk of it should have gone by now also in 8 years.

Jeremy Warner's story in late 2003 about his imminent 2004 house purchase with jumbo mortgage did cover many of the risks. He's smart, no doubt about it, but he cringe-fully dismiss his fears about too much debt in the economy with an eager eye on the nice house to upsize to. Prices had become insane in 2004 and just 3.5 years after a final crackup house price frenzy the first big bank was collapsing.

You say 8 years. Best part of 4 years of that have come from measures taken to put mortgage debtors way ahead of savers and those who've long been worried at buying a home at too high a price. I'm sure he has paid a lot down during that time, helped probably by interest rates cut if on a tracker or low SVR, BoE asset purchases, and hundreds of billions of pounds of QE having stopped adjustments in the economy and massive corrections in house prices.

Jeremy Warner was the first journalist I read in favour of quantitative easing, or at least saying it was nothing to fear, as rumours went around the BoE might print money. The first time I'd ever heard the term quantitative easing was from one of his stories, a couple of month before BoE announced it was considering it. He did leave the Independent in 2009, after 23 years there including 14 as Business City Editor, to go to the Telegraph, which might have come with a big pay rise. He probably deserves it compared to some financial journalists, and for being prepared to criticise support for house prices being too much and calling for rebalancing, but younger journalists starting out who haven't bought into housing could tell you the exact same thing about rebalancing.

Edmund's status is expanded on a different Telegraph page. The journalist formerly known as Economics Editor of the Telegraph. Cling on to that past status Edmund.

Edmund Conway

I was, until recently, Economics Editor of The Telegraph, but these days I am at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, where I will blog occasionally when I'm not knee-deep in homework

Gone off to study in America like that Irish property mad journalist who signed up to buy a flat for hundreds of thousands of euros. He's probably renting out his flat or house he bought in 2006. He was refused a credit card back in his 2008. Where's your income coming from Mr.Conway? Good of the Telegraph if they are are still paying you handsomely for occasional blogs and maybe covering Harvard fees as well.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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