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Oliver Sutton

Unexpected Drop In Manufacturing Production

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I thought manufacturing was supposed to take up the slack.

Bloomberg - U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Declines For First Time in Eight Months

U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly declined in December as economic activity was hampered by the coldest weather seen in the month in a century.

Factory output fell 0.1 percent from November, when it rose 0.6 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That's the first decline since April.

The median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.4 percent. The decline has an impact of less than 0.1 percent on fourth quarter gross-domestic-product, which showed a 0.5 percent drop, the office said.

Edited by Jehovah's Waitress

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Never really understood the mechanism by which manufacturing was/is going to save us TBH.

The vast majority of this manufacturing is carried out abroad, so apart from a few UK-based sales and admin jobs (maybe a few delivery drivers), the benefit to the UK appears to be minimal.

More cloud-cuckoo land stuff seems to me, from people who are concerned with stockmarket indexes, shareholder returns and GDP figures but appear to be blind to the reality of what globalisation has done to the UK in societal terms.

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Never really understood the mechanism by which manufacturing was/is going to save us TBH.

The vast majority of this manufacturing is carried out abroad, so apart from a few UK-based sales and admin jobs (maybe a few delivery drivers), the benefit to the UK appears to be minimal.

More cloud-cuckoo land stuff seems to me, from people who are concerned with stockmarket indexes, shareholder returns and GDP figures but appear to be blind to the reality of what globalisation has done to the UK in societal terms.

From Tuesday

A report released today highlights the problems of British manufacturing, where one third of UK manufacturing jobs are in foreign-owned subsidiaries which have 'limited ambitions'.

British owned firms, says The University of Manchester based ESRC Centre for Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC), employ an average of 14 workers and are mainly too small to export their goods.

The study challenges the City view that ownership does not matter, because the pattern of ownership has created a 'new British disease' of broken supply chains.

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I thought manufacturing was supposed to take up the slack.

Bloomberg - U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Declines For First Time in Eight Months

Suprising considering all other data points to manufacturing growth. Not surprising as the quite a few working days were lost to Snow in Decemeber. Logically the January figure should be about double expected.

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The decline has an impact of less than 0.1 percent on fourth quarter gross-domestic-product, which showed a 0.5 percent drop, the office said.

All adds up though.

Public sector borrowing was less than expected in December, so thats probably a (welcome?!) drop of 0.1-0.2% of GDP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8280461/UK-public-debt-rose-less-than-expected-in-December.html

Net borrowing in December was £16.8bn, excluding government support for the banks, down from £21bn a year earlier. Economists had predicted £21bn would be the figure for December 2010 as well.

Oil imports up in December due to cold weather and heating costs (ie can reasonably be blamed on the weather), explaining another drop of 0.1-0.2%

http://www.tradermanagement.com/currency-majors-technical-perspective/uk-deficit-on-trade-goods-widens-after-oil-imports-rise-1-billion

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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