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Oliver Sutton

Uk Trade Deficit Widens

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Expected -8.6bn up from -8.5bn last month.

What happened to the manufacturing led recovery?

Obviously we need the pound to drop more.

From Sky news earlier

The UK's trade balance is expected to narrow from last month's record gap when figures are released later this morning.

The gap between the value of imports and exports is expected to narrow this month

Last month saw the largest margin ever between the cost of imports and the cost of exports to the UK economy.

P.S. Germany, much berated by the city boys on here, has it's surplus grow to 15bn from 11.8bn.

Edited by Jehovah's Waitress

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Expected -8.6bn up from -8.5bn last month.

What happened to the manufacturing led recovery?

Obviously we need the pound to drop more.

P.S. Germany, much berated by the city boys on here, has it's surplus grow to 15bn from 11.8bn.

That news should boost stocks and the £ then?

Let's see (frenzy of keypad clicking and mouse shuffling)...........

1 GBP $1.60732 Euro 1.17855 Pound up a few pips,

Pound up against the basket:

GBP to USD 1.6074 +0.0005

GBP to EUR 1.1770 -0.0092

GBP to JPY 132.8082 +0.5117

GBP to TRY 2.5562 +0.0239

GBP to THB 49.3981 +0.0441

FTSE pretty flat--down 18.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Instant-View-Goods-trade-reuters_molt-2423434453.html;_ylt=AhDidubMMVa8zE1gquIN5xfSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4cHVjaGdrBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpbnN0YW50dmlldy0-?x=0

Record numbers of planes imported to save on the VAT. Them bankers are spending the bonuses on useful things to flee the country in style.

Edited by ralphmalph

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(...)

Obviously we need the pound to drop more.

(...)

That is it.

I am not a forex expert, but IMPO the exchange rates (GBP, USD and EUR) have been suspiciously stable, for a suspiciously long period, as if the central banks have been trying (successfully, surprisingly) to keep them in a "band".

Am I imagining things here?

But at some point the market will take care of that. "Gravity always wins".

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I used to place some emphasis on monthly trade figures but I have seen that some find them to be of not much use. A UK economist I follow feels that there are a lot of problems with them.

Because they turn out to be usually very inaccurate I am not a fan of analysing monthly trade figures. However the figures for 2010 as a whole for the UK do not show much of a sign of improvement as might have been hoped from the 2007/08 devaluation of sterling. We seem to have returned to our old pattern of a persistent large trade deficit although even annual figures are unreliable. Younger readers may be shocked to learn that markets used to move substantially on trade figures as today they are mostly ignored! For example the UK’s 1967 devaluation of the pound was finally decided to have been unnecessary a decade or two later…

http://t.co/DN8YLg4

So the truth is that the figures keep showing a deficit but we do not know a lot more.

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Import prices rose 1.5% in December.

Even excluding oil they rose by 0.8%.

The £ has been steady of late as well. More inflation for Merv to be vigilant about.

No wage rises either. Go on, feel it.

funny-dog-pictures-no-squeeze-me.jpg

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But at some point the market will take care of that. "Gravity always wins".

You called!:rolleyes:

A trade deficit at this moment in time says somebody out there still believes in us.

When we have a sudden trade surplus it will be all those pounds rushing back here as the currency implodes that'll be the sign that we are ath the end game.

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That news should boost stocks and the £ then?

Let's see (frenzy of keypad clicking and mouse shuffling)...........

1 GBP $1.60732 Euro 1.17855 Pound up a few pips,

Pound up against the basket:

GBP to USD 1.6074 +0.0005

GBP to EUR 1.1770 -0.0092

GBP to JPY 132.8082 +0.5117

GBP to TRY 2.5562 +0.0239

GBP to THB 49.3981 +0.0441

FTSE pretty flat--down 18.

The markets don't follow any kind of sense these days.

Or perhaps all the currencies are so screwed bad news is almost ineffectual.

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You called!:rolleyes:

Yes, actually. :lol:

A trade deficit at this moment in time says somebody out there still believes in us.

Relatively at last - considering the alternatives.

Alas, they are mistaken. The Eurozone has got lots of bad press recently, but macro-economically they have much better fundamentals than us. Politically they are fragile, of course, but foreigners don't know yet the troubles our cuts will bring us, in this area.

When we have a sudden trade surplus it will be all those pounds rushing back here as the currency implodes that'll be the sign that we are ath the end game.

I agree that sterling will have to crash. I don't understand how it hasn't yet actually - bar the explanation above: lack of alternatives. But these foreigners may be trusting an image of Britain, that doesn't exist any more. Oh well, as long they believe in this myth, it becomes a self-fulfilling (and funded) myth, and it goes on. Weirdly.

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the volume of trade is really more important than just the balance of payments.

if the defecit increases slightly, but you do 10% more trade then thats a positive thing.

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I agree that sterling will have to crash. I don't understand how it hasn't yet actually - bar the explanation above: lack of alternatives. But these foreigners may be trusting an image of Britain, that doesn't exist any more. Oh well, as long they believe in this myth, it becomes a self-fulfilling (and funded) myth, and it goes on. Weirdly.

Its normalcy bias, everyone just wants the game to continue and if they all put their fingers in their ears and sing la la la it'll all be OK. Most economists seem to believe in hope and faith over fundamantals so i don't know why joe6p whould be any brighter.

Things keep working till they stop and as long as they keep working people won't consider what it is that is keeping this going nor do they have the courage to see what the risks are.

TBH debating the machinations of a flock of sheep as they arrive at the slaughter house is frustrating if we attribute too much intelligence to them. Stupid people do stupid things and they can carry on doing stupid things long after it has become apparent to others.

Let them eat paper!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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