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DownsizingDiva

20% Drop In Supply - Will This Lead To A Spring Bounce?

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There has been a 20% drop in the number of homes for sale in the area I am currently watching (since November), and I have noticed that a couple of Estate Agents have recently increased prices (monitored via Propertybee) by around 5%. This is a total reversal of what I was seeing at the end of last year.

A number of properties which are, in my opinion, over-priced by around 10-15% (based on previous sold prices monitored via Zoopla) have recently gone SSTC. Just wondered if anyone else is seeing this in the areas they are monitoring, and if so, whether general consensus is that demand will outstrip supply this spring and cause prices to rise even further.

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There has been a 20% drop in the number of homes for sale in the area I am currently watching (since November), and I have noticed that a couple of Estate Agents have recently increased prices (monitored via Propertybee) by around 5%. This is a total reversal of what I was seeing at the end of last year.

A number of properties which are, in my opinion, over-priced by around 10-15% (based on previous sold prices monitored via Zoopla) have recently gone SSTC. Just wondered if anyone else is seeing this in the areas they are monitoring, and if so, whether general consensus is that demand will outstrip supply this spring and cause prices to rise even further.

<_<

What area?

Link?

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There has been at least a 20% increas in supply in my area of East Sussex.

Quick check on RM for 5 mi radius for my post code and I see 771 properties for sale up to £250k.

136 of these were added in the last 14 days. I would characterise this as a flood.

Nationally, the numbers of properties coming to market is greater than at any other period since 2006. We did a findaproperty series of threads 3 years ago when the numbers were in the 250,000 properties. This has trebled as the rush for the exits is now under way.

http://www.findaproperty.com/index.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0

Search
776,453 properties for sale
and rent from 11,217 estate agents

Bottom line: don't listen to the EA hype. Do your research on RM and findaproperty and yo will see that there are hundres of properties ocming on each day. Job losses are behind a lot of the panic as we saw in Sandwich< Kent whenh Pfizer announded 2,400 job cuts (170 new lisgings in a single day for that area).

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Last couple of years there has been a sizeable fall back in supply back end of 2009 and 2010. The important thing though is that quantity is up on the same month last year (my search is 325 Jan2010 vs 452 Jan2011 – that 452 figure was down from 540 odd in August).

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Last couple of years there has been a sizeable fall back in supply back end of 2009 and 2010. The important thing though is that quantity is up on the same month last year (my search is 325 Jan2010 vs 452 Jan2011 – that 452 figure was down from 540 odd in August).

= a supply increase of 39%.

:D

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I was talking with an EA today who told me that people are opting not to put their property on the market, or decide to rent it out intead of selling, if the valuation is not what they want. They simply rent their property out and go use that rent to buy another house.

He said that so many were now renting that he felt that the rental mark would tip over in Swansea this Spring/Summer due to the fact that there are too many rental properties now compared to renters.

There are also quite a few personal friends of mine - all quite loaded - who are choosing to buy property for cash as opposed to seeing it eroded by inflation or gambling on stocks (I started a thread about this over the weekend.).

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I was talking with an EA today who told me that people are opting not to put their property on the market, or decide to rent it out intead of selling, if the valuation is not what they want. They simply rent their property out and go use that rent to buy another house.

He said that so many were now renting that he felt that the rental mark would tip over in Swansea this Spring/Summer due to the fact that there are too many rental properties now compared to renters.

There are also quite a few personal friends of mine - all quite loaded - who are choosing to buy property for cash as opposed to seeing it eroded by inflation or gambling on stocks (I started a thread about this over the weekend.).

I think a HPC will be preceded by a rent price crash.

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There has been at least a 20% increas in supply in my area of East Sussex.

Quick check on RM for 5 mi radius for my post code and I see 771 properties for sale up to £250k.

136 of these were added in the last 14 days. I would characterise this as a flood.

Bottom line: don't listen to the EA hype. Do your research on RM and findaproperty and yo will see that there are hundres of properties ocming on each day. Job losses are behind a lot of the panic as we saw in Sandwich< Kent whenh Pfizer announded 2,400 job cuts (170 new lisgings in a single day for that area).

Thanks RB. You are lucky then. Hopefully the "flood" of properties will result in downward prices. Not the same in this neck of the woods unfortunately.

I do lots of research, but that indicates that in my area there are very few sellers who are "keen to sell" - plenty chancing their luck with prices at peak + 10%. I am getting mighty fed up with waiting for the crash.

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I was talking with an EA today who told me that people are opting not to put their property on the market, or decide to rent it out intead of selling, if the valuation is not what they want. They simply rent their property out and go use that rent to buy another house.

He said that so many were now renting that he felt that the rental mark would tip over in Swansea this Spring/Summer due to the fact that there are too many rental properties now compared to renters.

There are also quite a few personal friends of mine - all quite loaded - who are choosing to buy property for cash as opposed to seeing it eroded by inflation or gambling on stocks (I started a thread about this over the weekend.).

When the rental market tips over, so will house prices.

Are we just about to enter the "fear" stage of this much loved* chart?

bubble-lifecycle.gif

* by us, anyway :P

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Thanks RB. You are lucky then. Hopefully the "flood" of properties will result in downward prices. Not the same in this neck of the woods unfortunately.

I do lots of research, but that indicates that in my area there are very few sellers who are "keen to sell" - plenty chancing their luck with prices at peak + 10%. I am getting mighty fed up with waiting for the crash.

All depends on your area. The SE is crashing badly due to heights the market was driven by LIAR LOANS. Read recently Brighton has a 12:1 PE ratio making it the most overpriced property IN THE WORLD!

Your area may be seeing stubborn sellers as no one is losing their jobs where you live. Here, the cuts are huge with a number of friends of mine in the NHS being let go.

There is nothing like a job loss to get a stubborn seller to market. Sad as this may be--they cannot expect to get their money back if they bought in after about 2004.

Edited by Realistbear

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All depends on your area. The SE is crashing badly due to heights the market was driven by LIAR LOANS. Read recently Brighton has a 12:1 PE ratio making it the most overpriced property IN THE WORLD!

Your area may be seeing stubborn sellers as no one is losing their jobs where you live. Here, the cuts are huge with a number of friends of mine in the NHS being let go.

There is nothing like a job loss to get a stubborn seller to market. Sad as this may be--they cannot expect to get their money back if they bought in after about 2004.

But I AM in the South East!!! (Well, South anyway, just outside Southampton).

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Outskirts of Southampton

It's seasonal so you need to compare to the same period last year. In December the number of properties on the Market in Southampton is up 23% year on year. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html/nomsite?searchLocation=SO16

Supply always drops off in the winter and increases again in the spring. There's an awful lot coming on the Market in my area of Essex. Some towns not far off last summers peak already!

Edited by Pent Up

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Outskirts of Southampton

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E1231&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=10.0

1000+ properties for sale found

IN the last 14 days, 10 mi radius of Southhampton.

Did a check on RM--Southampton is one of the highest new properties to market area in the UK!

Just did a 10 mi radius check and there are so many new listings in the last 14 days alone that it comes up as "over 1000".

And this is RM only--not everyone lists on RM these days given the rise of ZOOPLA and findaproperty.

Don't listen to the EAs - get on the net and see the flood that is coming on the market near you! Great days ahead--give it a few more months as the job losses in your area will be horrendous as you too have lots of government jobs like we do in Brighton.

Sad as all this news is mind you. But what are you going to do? Can't help it if people were fools and bought with LIAR LOANS or mewed away their equity on Range Rovers.

EDit: DUDE!! Just did another check on your area and it may well be the BIGGEST flood area in the UK--check it out--new properties listed at under £250k and it comes up with 1000+

Way hay!

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E1231&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=10.0

1000+ properties for sale found

IN the last 14 days, 10 mi radius of Southhampton.

Did a check on RM--Southampton is one of the highest new properties to market area in the UK!

Just did a 10 mi radius check and there are so many new listings in the last 14 days alone that it comes up as "over 1000".

And this is RM only--not everyone lists on RM these days given the rise of ZOOPLA and findaproperty.

Don't listen to the EAs - get on the net and see the flood that is coming on the market near you! Great days ahead--give it a few more months as the job losses in your area will be horrendous as you too have lots of government jobs like we do in Brighton.

Sad as all this news is mind you. But what are you going to do? Can't help it if people were fols and bought with LIAR LOANS or mewed away their equity on Range Rovers.

EDit: DUDE!! Just did another check on your area and it may well be the BIGGEST flood area in the UK--check it out--new properties listed at under £250k and it comes up with 1000+

Way hay!

And 833 homes listed within a 3 mile radius within the last 14 days.

Unless there has been a deluge of re-listings to clear Property Bee histories or because of a merger of agencies, this is a flood of almost biblical proportions.

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E1231&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=10.0

1000+ properties for sale found

IN the last 14 days, 10 mi radius of Southhampton.

Did a check on RM--Southampton is one of the highest new properties to market area in the UK!

Just did a 10 mi radius check and there are so many new listings in the last 14 days alone that it comes up as "over 1000".

And this is RM only--not everyone lists on RM these days given the rise of ZOOPLA and findaproperty.

Don't listen to the EAs - get on the net and see the flood that is coming on the market near you! Great days ahead--give it a few more months as the job losses in your area will be horrendous as you too have lots of government jobs like we do in Brighton.

Sad as all this news is mind you. But what are you going to do? Can't help it if people were fools and bought with LIAR LOANS or mewed away their equity on Range Rovers.

EDit: DUDE!! Just did another check on your area and it may well be the BIGGEST flood area in the UK--check it out--new properties listed at under £250k and it comes up with 1000+

Way hay!

I am not actually in Southampton City itself. On the outskirts about 5 miles out. I am monitoring properties within a 3 mile radius of a particular postcode (due to proximity to work) and that area has 182 properties for sale, compared with 227 in November! Guess I will just have to widen my search criteria!

Edited by DownsizingDiva

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Funnily enough this is the experience in a number of areas I have looked at.

Seems that as soon as the going gets tough, people simply go into their shells and decide not to do anything. Why put yourself through the pain and 'embarrassment' of having your house on the market for a long time. Whilst the imperative is not there, there exists nothing to force people.

that's what I was thinking...

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And 833 homes listed within a 3 mile radius within the last 14 days.

Unless there has been a deluge of re-listings to clear Property Bee histories or because of a merger of agencies, this is a flood of almost biblical proportions.

Same is happening in East Sussex. people are scared and they no longer believe the Express when it says prices are still soaring.

Job losses is a huge and powerful catalyst to get a market moving--to the sharp downside.

Our friend in Southampton has been listening to the EAs' "shortage of supply" cobblers because this is all the VIs have left to try to get buyers to jump in.

Well, the numbers on RM show it ain't working too good. No siree. MM-mm.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E93554&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=3.0

594 properties for sale found

And that is how many new properties are listed around my way in the last 14 days in a narrow 3 mile radius.

Glug glu glug--the flood has arrived!!!

Edited by Realistbear

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Little in the way of new property coming on to the market in the £500K+ price range in this area (West Sussex). Most people seem to be hunkering down and staying put.

I believe the cost of moving these days (particularly stamp duty) is a major factor in the collapse in the number of transactions in recent years. Clearly that erstwhile chancellor and prime minister (McBroon) either never heard of the Laffer Curve or deliberately choose to ignore it when raising stamp duty from 1% to 3% (4% for £500K+). Such a high tax penalty just grid locks the market and is a barrier to skilled labour mobility.

When prices were rising rapidly, most people seem prepared to absorb these transaction costs. But with prices static or falling, it's a different matter. If Ozzy wants to loosen the log jam and bring more houses onto the market, he would halve stamp duty for all prime residence purchases..... and triple it for 2nd home and BTL purchases!

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Same is happening in East Sussex. people are scared and they no longer believe the Express when it says prices are still soaring.

Job losses is a huge and powerful catalyst to get a market moving--to the sharp downside.

Our friend in Southampton has been listening to the EAs' "shortage of supply" cobblers because this is all the VIs have left to try to get buyers to jump in.

Well, the numbers on RM show it ain't working too good. No siree. MM-mm.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E93554&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=3.0

594 properties for sale found

And that is how many new properties are listed around my way in the last 14 days in a narrow 3 mile radius.

Glug glu glug--the flood has arrived!!!

0 properties within a god knows what mile radius in god knows how many months,its a bear fest i tell you

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I am not actually in Southampton City itself. On the outskirts about 5 miles out. I am monitoring properties within a 3 mile radius of a particular postcode (due to proximity to work) and that area has 182 properties for sale, compared with 227 in November! Guess I will just have to widen my search criteria!

ITS SEASONAL! you need to compare to the same time last year. Few people put their homes up for sale in the winter and many like to take them off in winter. Especially bow that hips are gone it's much easier to come off and on the Market as you wish.

What is the first half of your postcode?

Edited by Pent Up

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Little in the way of new property coming on to the market in the £500K+ price range in this area (West Sussex). Most people seem to be hunkering down and staying put.

I believe the cost of moving these days (particularly stamp duty) is a major factor in the collapse in the number of transactions in recent years. Clearly that erstwhile chancellor and prime minister (McBroon) either never heard of the Laffer Curve or deliberately choose to ignore it when raising stamp duty from 1% to 3% (4% for £500K+). Such a high tax penalty just grid locks the market and is a barrier to skilled labour mobility.

When prices were rising rapidly, most people seem prepared to absorb these transaction costs. But with prices static or falling, it's a different matter. If Ozzy wants to loosen the log jam and bring more houses onto the market, he would halve stamp duty for all prime residence purchases..... and triple it for 2nd home and BTL purchases!

You must be joking right?

West Sussex is THE area for flooding of new properties.

Check out RM

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E1206&maxDaysSinceAdded=14&radius=10.0

1000+ properties for sale found

And thats 1000+ in just 14 days in the West Sussex-Shoreham area! And Shoreham is not known for big floods of propepties being a somewhat quiet backwater of Brighton.

Narrow it down to 3 miles and there are 237 new properties--that's in the last 2 weeks alone.

West and East Sussex are seeing the fastest growth in new listings of any region in the UK it looks like. I thought it was gettng good in my part of Eas Sussex but this has really inspired me no end. I had NO IDEA there were as many new properties as this. Way Hay--bring it on .

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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