My House Was Bought For £6250 By The Last Owner

[OnlyMe]

Bardon,

Take pharma. We have a few large globals and almost no middle sector - that is what a cored out economy looks like. That is what an economy strangled by debt andd high costs looks like, one run by and for large business - no middle sector, no spread, no natural pull to keep within borders. Where/how do you start a small / medium sized business - increasingly in the UK you cannot. Those 37/38 year olds who cannot even afford a cappy roof over their head are going to be starting nothing productive, they cannot afford to risk a penny.

Economic death throws, economic self multilation.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f959a652-3088-11e0-9de3-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html#axzz1D87ch6or

In response, big pharma is outsourcing more research to universities and biotechnology companies, which are seen as less expensive and more nimble discoverers of innovative medicines. Multinationals are also tilting research towards the US, with its huge market and vibrant scientific scene, while establishing bases in Asia.

Sandwich is just the biggest in a series of UK lab cuts, and the Royal Society of Chemistry estimates that Britain has lost almost 6,000 pharma jobs in the past 12 months alone. To look at Sandwich on its own is like assessing transport safety on the basis of one spectacular air crash.

The trend is particularly troubling for the UK, for two reasons. First, its research-based industry is focused more than in other advanced economies on life sciences. The government’s 2010 research and development scoreboard shows that pharma and biotech companies are responsible for 35 per cent of all corporate spending on R&D in the UK, against 19 per cent globally.

Second, while Britain has a world-class academic research base in bioscience, it has relatively few smaller companies that could pick up the slack from big pharma. The UK lacks both the huge range of biotech companies in the US and the layer of more traditional medium-sized pharma companies in continental Europe.

[erranta]

Bardon,

Take pharma. We have a few large globals and almost no middle sector - that is what a cored out economy looks like. That is what an economy strangled by debt andd high costs looks like, one run by and for large business - no middle sector, no spread, no natural pull to keep within borders. Where/how do you start a small / medium sized business - increasingly in the UK you cannot. Those 37/38 year olds who cannot even afford a cappy roof over their head are going to be starting nothing productive, they cannot afford to risk a penny.

Economic death throws, economic self multilation.

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1D87ch6or

In response, big pharma is outsourcing more research to universities and biotechnology companies, which are seen as less expensive and more nimble discoverers of innovative medicines. Multinationals are also tilting research towards the US, with its huge market and vibrant scientific scene, while establishing bases in Asia.

Sandwich is just the biggest in a series of UK lab cuts, and the Royal Society of Chemistry estimates that Britain has lost almost 6,000 pharma jobs in the past 12 months alone. To look at Sandwich on its own is like assessing transport safety on the basis of one spectacular air crash.

The trend is particularly troubling for the UK, for two reasons. First, its research-based industry is focused more than in other advanced economies on life sciences. The government's 2010 research and development scoreboard shows that pharma and biotech companies are responsible for 35 per cent of all corporate spending on R&D in the UK, against 19 per cent globally.

Second, while Britain has a world-class academic research base in bioscience, it has relatively few smaller companies that could pick up the slack from big pharma. The UK lacks both the huge range of biotech companies in the US and the layer of more traditional medium-sized pharma companies in continental Europe.

Orwell's prophesy of "oligarchical collectivism"

"If there was hope, it lay in the proles, because only there could the force to destroy the Party ever be generated...If only they could somehow become conscious of their own strength".

"The word "proles" is short for the word "proletariat" which was a word used by the Romans for their slaves."

But in "1984" Orwell meant it to imply the general masses, ie the working class and unemployed.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS "MIDDLE CLASS"!

[miko]

Its not too late for anyone of us to eradicate poverty, you just have to want to do it maybe some just dont know how to.

This song below is dedicated to you and there is a very strong modern day message with respect to wage increases, land ownership and wealth building from a culture that believed that the land could not be owned. The lyrics can be found here

http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/p/paul_kelly/from_little_things_big_things_grow.html#

You have gone completly off topic

Wages rising was a TREND over many years and houses rose with them .

When wages could not keep up anymore income mutiples were increased when assessing a mortgage that became a TREND.

Both are now in reverse for reasons given in previous posts on this thread.

Wage rises not matching inflation and smaller income mutiples for mortgages are now new trends.

At present there are no reasons to revert back to the old TRENDS.

For that reason ever increasing house price TREND has stopped.

We are now on page 8 and you have given no valid reasons why this new TREND is going to reverse .

I give up.

Edited February 6, 2011 by miko

[miko]

The topic was how much house prices have increased in value over time. This video is about big things growing from little things.

You should never give up, success may be just around the corner.

Who said anything about giving up ?

All I was saying was without higher wages we cannot have higher house prices . Nothing to do with giving up just stating a meer fact .

Numbers always have to add up if wages go down and not up then house prices go down.

One thing I will give up now is this debate with you . As you refuse to see or accept simple numbers logic.

[miko]

You did.

Yes give up trying to explain something to you as you can not understand simple maths.

But you were trying to tell me I was giving up as I would not accept that house prices would never stop going up. That is not giving up that is seeing rality two completly different things.

[LuckyOne]

They need to to keep up with inflation. How else could people afford to pay ever increasing rents, its not like you get a loan to pay rents.

Rents are generally paid from income while purchases are generally made with a large dose of debt.

Rents have collapsed relative to prices in the last decade or so in the UK : yields have roughly halved. This tells me that the shelter value of housing relative to incomes has remained roughly constant while the debt fuelled speculative element has increased massively.

I agree with many of your long term views about the value of owning the house in which you live. The trick to extracting this value is to be able to hold onto your house throughout the cycle. For many, buying at a time of historically low variable interest rates and historically high prices relative to wages means that they will lose their houses at some point in the cycle which will negatively impact their ability to enjoy the benefits of home ownership.

No-one knows what will happen to house prices in the future despite protestations to the contrary from both sides. Market timing is also a perilously difficult thing to get right consistently. That said, current conditions in the UK housing market mean that taking on a larger financial commitment to housing is not sensible. Downsizing is the only strategy that makes sense (either in size or, especially, from an area of the country that experienced a larger bubble to one which experienced a smaller bubble).

[7clubs]

I can't help but think that, had Bardon spent the last 12 months back in the UK, rather than in Australia (as I have), his views on mid- to long-term wages rises may be slightly different. I am truly shocked at how the middle of the job market has been cored out here in the UK. As an anecdote, a job which I currently pursuing is paying less than the last time it was filled, a few years ago - at interview, this was freely acknowledged by the director of the company; he is confident that he can fill the post at the lower salary offered (whether or not he will find a suitably skilled person to accept it is a moot point). Indeed, I am seeing jobs that I held in the late 90s paying less today in 2011 than 12 years ago - how much has the cost of living (even beyond housing) risen in that time??

To Bardon's credit, he clearly has spent some time getting to understand the mechanics of the money system and has interpreted its machinations in such a way as to take a bullish stance on highly-leveraged property, in the expectation of appreciable capital gain. This runs counter to the views of most on this forum (including me), as one would expect, given its title and the fact that it is UK-based. His point of reference is at a different point in the economic cycle; time will tell where this cycle leads.

I fear that the above anecdotes are demonstrative of a long-term trend for the UK (and elsewhere). Without significant wage increases, just to catch up with the overall true cost of living increases over the last decade, never mind the rocketing inflation we are witnessing today, house prices ain't going anywhere like upwards.

[Bruce Banner]

Someone's getting carried away .

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=stats&do=who&t=158982

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

if you are intending to buy a house to live in then now is as good a time as any to buy one.

or following on from your history article a few pages back, possibly the worst time in 300 years

they always go up except in the odd 100 year period when they go down

[Bruce Banner]

Yes i have seen the price drops in NI and the NI forum. I have a good friend that twas a builder in NI refurbishing the banks. My mate has just bought a gourmet chocolate factory in Lough and I know a lot of long neck MacNamees in Donegal. Yes south of the border I know but not that different to the north anymore.

It still hold s true that a normal family that buys a house in NI will not regret it in the future. The danger is for someone who genuinely just wants to buy a house is that the procrastination sets in and the paralysis continues when it can be shown that in the long term they gained nothing by delaying a purchase.

What a daft thing to say.

Of course someone who bought at the top of the NI bubble will regret it, prices are over 40% down, which means that if they'd waited for sanity to return they would have been much better off.

[Bruce Banner]

except now is not the top of the market

"It still holds true" implied that you were referring to a period of time including today, not just today.

I don't remember you posting, in manic overdrive mode, a year or two ago, warning people not to buy, quite the reverse in fact.

[Bruce Banner]

I wouldn't class myself as an entrepreneur in housing, far from it. You will find this hard to believe but I dont have an agenda. And no I am not a paid VI persuading people to buy either and I doubt that there is such a thing on forum boards.

[Bruce Banner]

anything you say Bruce anything you say

You seem to be as deluded as the thread starter, who bought a house in December 2010 .

[Bruce Banner]

If anyone forms a buying decision because they read it on a free internet chatter board then what does that say about them ?

If anyone were to think that posts on an internet forum in any way shape or form affected the property market then what does that say about them ?

Ah, the typical property bull answer.

They ramp property on this forum as if their livelihood depends on it, which it does. Then, when outed, they say that no one should take any notice of what is said on a forum .

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Why do estate agents sign on here then and peddle the "Now is the time to buy" mantra. You would be surprised how many "ordinary"posters turn out to be working in estate agents and posting from their office. I think that would qualify them as paid VIs.

well i cant speak for all estate agents but as one of the premier estate agents in the world i can confirm,

we are sitting in our 6 million chateau/office in Megeve in the Alps right now and i will sue anyone who says that House prices go down.

there will never be a better time to fill yer boots

Edited February 6, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka

[7clubs]

I understand the point that you are making and i haven't been back to blighty for a few years. I am not completely cut off to what is happening and I am fully aware of how bad it is there at the moment and I think that the late 70's was worse and look what has happened to house prices since then. As far as salaries go I never considered them to be that good in the UK and yes they are not rising dramatically but they are not dropping either. For some unknown reason to me UK residents have always managed to eke out a fairly high standard of living on their relatively low salaries and I think they will continue to do so. The question is has there been a structural change, has the living standard dropped and will it stay lower.

I dont think so and I think the UK still has a lot going for it.

I believe the answer you are looking for is credit.

This is far from unique to the UK - look closer to home and see the masses starting to drown too.

[200p]

Fiat money, is in a super bear market since its inception, with pullbacks (aka "deflations"), in a rhythmic fractal motion.

[Bruce Banner]

If anyone forms a buying decision because they read it on a free internet chatter board then what does that say about them ?

If anyone were to think that posts on an internet forum in any way shape or form affected the property market then what does that say about them ?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=stats&do=who&t=158982

[easy2012]

If it was worth £6,250 in 1963 and we assume that your long term growth rate of 7% is about correct, should it not be worth £6,250 * (1.07) ^ 48 = £ 160,806 today rather than its actual price of £ 350,000?

Are you actually agreeing that UK houses are due for a 50% fall in price?

The wilson said house price doubled every 7 years. So, 1963 to 2010 is 47 years or about 6.7 double.

2^6.7 = 104x

6250 x 104 = £650k.

£350k would be such a bargain ..........

By 2050, that is 40 years on, it would go up by another 2 ^ 5.7x

650k x 2^5.7 = 650k x 52 = 33.8 million......

Edited February 6, 2011 by easybetman

[easy2012]

Prices between 1814 and 1914 didn't go up at all. Depends which century you pick.

That was before central bank printing press was invented..

[pie-eater]

You seem to be as deluded as the thread starter, who bought a house in December 2010 .

How am I deluded? I moved into my new house on 1st Dec 2010. Are you implying I made the thread up?

[Bruce Banner]

How am I deluded? I moved into my new house on 1st Dec 2010. Are you implying I made the thread up?

Very bad time to buy, that's all.

[pie-eater]

Very bad time to buy, that's all.

It was a bad time to move with all the friggin snow.

We were going to rent for another year or 2, but this house came on the market and it was exactly what we were looking for. We got it cheap too, compared to what the asking price was and what comparable houses were selling for.

I don't think there's going to be any significant drops in prices, and this is a house to live in for a considerable number of years.

[athom]

There is luck at what rate you pay and when you buy. There is luck where you buy. There is luck in what you buy.

I would dispute all of those which is why i'm waiting

[athom]

It was a bad time to move with all the friggin snow.

We were going to rent for another year or 2, but this house came on the market and it was exactly what we were looking for. We got it cheap too, compared to what the asking price was and what comparable houses were selling for.

At least you did your bit to lock in the downward spiral, thank you

I don't think there's going to be any significant drops in prices