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House Prices: Are They Going Up Or Down?

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Actually a bit bearish.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/The-Halifax-House-Price-Index-Shows-A-08-Rise-In-January-But-How-Accurate-Is-It/Article/201102115922930?lpos=Business_First_Buisness_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15922930_The_Halifax_House_Price_Index_Shows_A_0.8%25_Rise_In_January_But_How_Accurate_Is_It_

On the face of it, consumers could be forgiven for asking which statistics they should believe.

For example - the Halifax says prices rose 0.8% in January. Nationwide believes they fell by 0.1%.

Experts advise not to pull our hair out just yet.

We should, they say, consider seasonal adjustments and the fact that mansions may be selling better in one particular month compared with small flats the next....

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There's not a great deal of difference between -0.8 and +0.1 particularly when the transaction level is so low. The only thing that matters is the longer term trend. At the moment the low volumes are playingn a big part in things. High volumes will come soon enough (well, not soon enough for me :rolleyes: )and that will dampen prices. Overall a few ups are to be expected and the housing market is effectively closed until IRs or volumes change.

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The Haliwide figures are really fairly meaningless whilst volumes are so low. That is especially true at the present time when, we are told, FTB cannot (or won't) buy, meaning that the lower priced properties are being left on the shelf, and therefore cannot be included in these calculations.

So, if only the higher value houses are actually selling, that results in the average price of properties sold being higher than if some of the starter homes were being shifted. Conclusion? The Haliwide figures are "correctly" showing the average value of property sold, but hiding the real fall in values.

It would be interesting to see how many properties are being sold now in each £100,000 band compared with the same months last year. That would give a truer indication, surely?

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The Haliwide figures are really fairly meaningless whilst volumes are so low. That is especially true at the present time when, we are told, FTB cannot (or won't) buy, meaning that the lower priced properties are being left on the shelf, and therefore cannot be included in these calculations.

So, if only the higher value houses are actually selling, that results in the average price of properties sold being higher than if some of the starter homes were being shifted. Conclusion? The Haliwide figures are "correctly" showing the average value of property sold, but hiding the real fall in values.

It would be interesting to see how many properties are being sold now in each £100,000 band compared with the same months last year. That would give a truer indication, surely?

Supposedly the indicies take this into account using repeat sales regression techniques. How effective they are I don't know.

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Is this wobble in the property market a result of what has happened in Ireland? Their property prices were grossly inflated yet to some countries we look the same!

I'm waiting for them to bottom out before I get back in again...currently renting.

Some property prices in my area are going down but some are stubbornly the same.... week after week the same old properties for sale.

We are strange creatures driven to get the very best deal ...one sniff of a resurgence and we'll all be at it ...madly scouring the papers..talking about it in the pub.I notice no-one talks about property in the pub anymore!

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Something near us has come back onto market again this year - with a different agent - and 10K more than it was on for until mid-Oct 2010.

That is way over our budget, and far too large for us to even consider.

Other properties in the less desirable areas of town are dropping their prices, very very slightly - by £2K on a £180K property, but on those there are still no sales either.

A real stalemate everywhere here.

Two agents who are being proactive to try and find something for us, just keep saying - and we can see by Rightmove - that nothing new (quality wise) is coming to market.

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Something near us has come back onto market again this year - with a different agent - and 10K more than it was on for until mid-Oct 2010.

That is way over our budget, and far too large for us to even consider.

Other properties in the less desirable areas of town are dropping their prices, very very slightly - by £2K on a £180K property, but on those there are still no sales either.

A real stalemate everywhere here.

Two agents who are being proactive to try and find something for us, just keep saying - and we can see by Rightmove - that nothing new (quality wise) is coming to market.

asking prices are always optimistic.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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