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Halifax Today +0.8%

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A 0% will put it down 4.2% actual yoy.

3 month yoy would be -3%

So, MoM would be 0%, QoQ would be -3% and YoY would be -4.2%

Guess what figure the BBC will report. <_<

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It seems these results are becoming progressively meaningless. So few transactions are happening it nearly makes them redudant

True. And around my way they don't reflect reality at all. Prices holding/rising over the year, sadly.

But despite this, constant negative figures seeping into general psyche and sentiment can only be a good thing...

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Didn't they seasonally adjust down last month.

Think they learnt their lesson with 3.6% down shocker.

Nationwide have this to learn of course.

Hope to be wrong but flat or small positive.

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The good news is that from here, any fall will make the YoY drop start to look a lot more scary. ;)

As the YoY falls get bigger, the banks will tighten their lending to account for the risk, which will accelerate the falls further.

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So, MoM would be 0%, QoQ would be -3% and YoY would be -4.2%

Guess what figure the BBC will report. <_<

Brilliant. So a 1% fall would take us past the -5% YoY which would be massive headline news as most of the 'experts' have predicted no more than 5% falls this year.

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Brilliant. So a 1% fall would take us past the -5% YoY which would be massive headline news as most of the 'experts' have predicted no more than 5% falls this year.

Yes an actual yoy fall but Halifax use a three month average compared to the same three months the previous year for their yoy calculation so the reported figure will be lower than the actual yoy fall.

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The good news is that from here, any fall will make the YoY drop start to look a lot more scary. ;)

Actually Halifax's second peak was January 2010 so we need to start seeing some bigger monthly falls to keep an accelerating yoy figure after this month.

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I'll go -0.4% prediction but I STILL haven't been write on a prediction yet :o)

BBC have updates their halliwide chart - follow link: below

Hate to say it but there's a slight hint in the data that the falls are levelling out, hopefully this is just noise, due to seasonal factors etc. Hoping this won't be evident once we get the latest halifax report.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51062000/gif/_51062316_house_prices_jan464x304.gif

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Keep it under your hat, but my insiders tell me this one will hit the headlines. Another big down, over -2%!

Well someones prediction will turn out to be correct ;)

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Keep it under your hat, but my insiders tell me this one will hit the headlines. Another big down, over -2%!

Are you calling... BLACK FRIDAY ??? :P

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Actually Halifax's second peak was January 2010 so we need to start seeing some bigger monthly falls to keep an accelerating yoy figure after this month.

True but the seasonally adjusted peak was in April and the raw figure was almost at the Jan 2010 level as recently as August.

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It seems these results are becoming progressively meaningless. So few transactions are happening it nearly makes them redudant

I hate caring about these stats at all...

-0.2

sigh

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I'll go -0.4% prediction but I STILL haven't been write on a prediction yet :o)

BBC have updates their halliwide chart - follow link: below

Hate to say it but there's a slight hint in the data that the falls are levelling out, hopefully this is just noise, due to seasonal factors etc. Hoping this won't be evident once we get the latest halifax report.

http://news.bbcimg.c..._jan464x304.gif

I suspect the second downward cycle on this one will be slower than the first i.e. more in line with the rate of decline in the 89-94 downward move and the current trend look like it will do that.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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