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Realistbear

Wiki: Black Swan Event Possibly Identified

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html

WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'
Al-Qaeda is actively tring to secure nuclear material and recruiting rogue scientists to build a radioactive "dirty" bomb, according to leaked diplomatic documents.

This would most certainly set a dog among the squirrels. Given the relatively easy access to the raw materials and the troubles in the ME it is not beyond the realms of probability that such an event could occur soon. The market reaction to such an event could be many times worse than 9/11 or 7/7.

Now that Wiki have confirmed such and event is in the planning stages I suppose it is no longer a Black Swan.

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You don't need to be a scientist to build a "dirty bomb". You just need a way of distributing radioactive material over a wide area. Wrapping a conventional explosive in U238 would do it. I could sit here and order everything I need and have it delivered to the door. If "The Data" really wanted to do this they'd have done it a long time ago. They are obviously not as motivated as the IRA were :rolleyes:

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http://www.telegraph...dirty-bomb.html

WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'
Al-Qaeda is actively tring to secure nuclear material and recruiting rogue scientists to build a radioactive "dirty" bomb, according to leaked diplomatic documents.

This would most certainly set a dog among the squirrels. Given the relatively easy access to the raw materials and the troubles in the ME it is not beyond the realms of probability that such an event could occur soon. The market reaction to such an event could be many times worse than 9/11 or 7/7.

Now that Wiki have confirmed such and event is in the planning stages I suppose it is no longer a Black Swan.

This is certainly the easiest method of for someone like AQ to cause huge panic, delays and increased security costs going. They already have the explosives, and I don't think it is hard to get hold of radioactive material, whilst I am sure they'd love some Plutonium or Uranium, there are plenty of other nasties out there.

I could see a bunch of Afghanis working in a sweat shopping being asked to scrape the Radium off from phosphorescent watches for example: http://www.trusted-forwarder.org/elgin/help/luminous_dials.html . A few hundred war surplus timepieces could probably cripple an underground system for weeks as the authorities would be cleaned forced to clean up. There is also a lot of weird nuclear stuff lying around all over in Russia, including the greatly famed seed irradiators http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn5061-risk-of-radioactive-dirty-bomb-growing.html

So all in all, I'm surprised this hasn't been tried already and would be very anxious about this sort of threat.

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This is certainly the easiest method of for someone like AQ to cause huge panic, delays and increased security costs going. They already have the explosives, and I don't think it is hard to get hold of radioactive material, whilst I am sure they'd love some Plutonium or Uranium, there are plenty of other nasties out there.

I could see a bunch of Afghanis working in a sweat shopping being asked to scrape the Radium off from phosphorescent watches for example: http://www.trusted-forwarder.org/elgin/help/luminous_dials.html . A few hundred war surplus timepieces could probably cripple an underground system for weeks as the authorities would be cleaned forced to clean up. There is also a lot of weird nuclear stuff lying around all over in Russia, including the greatly famed seed irradiators http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn5061-risk-of-radioactive-dirty-bomb-growing.html

So all in all, I'm surprised this hasn't been tried already and would be very anxious about this sort of threat.

It's so much easier than that -

http://unitednuclear.com/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2_4&products_id=464

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Now that Wiki have confirmed such and event is in the planning stages I suppose it is no longer a Black Swan.

Wikileaks haven't confirmed such an event is in the planning stages, merely that somebody has given intelligence

claiming as much.

You don't need to spend years reading the declassified documents on the State Dept & the CIA websites, to realise

that any information a President wants to support his claims can & will be concocted to provide justification &

implausible deniability for their profitable crimes against humanity.

Wikileaks could show the documents that 'confirmed' Saddam's WMD, but as we all know, it would prove nothing.

Claims in US & British internal documents about bad things the enemy is doing are far less credible than any info

about bad things that we & our allies may be doing, since you have less reason to exaggerate your own crimes.

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This is not a new threat. The Soviets were pioneering atom bombs in suitcases and planning to sneak them into New York.

A dirty bomb should however not be confused with a nuclear explosion. The former involve taking material that is already radioactive and dispersing it over a small area by means of a conventional explosion. This could make several blocks of London completely uninhabitable for decades. The latter require the much more complicated process of massively enhancing the radioactive nature of the material by means of fused detonation. This would result in a blast radius of several miles, the deaths of tens of thousands and a large region made uninhabitable for the foreseeable future. The blasts in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were tiny compared to the power of modern weapons.

Ukraine's experience of Chernobyl would be different too, in that this involved the meltdown of a reactor and a resulting cloud of radioactive material being spread over an area measuring hundreds of kilometres.

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I think you'll find any terrorist org wants to create chaos, so why not drop some acid in the water supplies of london. You'll get chaos then!

epsom salts could have an impact

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This is not a new threat. The Soviets were pioneering atom bombs in suitcases and planning to sneak them into New York.

A dirty bomb should however not be confused with a nuclear explosion. The former involve taking material that is already radioactive and dispersing it over a small area by means of a conventional explosion. This could make several blocks of London completely uninhabitable for decades. The latter require the much more complicated process of massively enhancing the radioactive nature of the material by means of fused detonation. This would result in a blast radius of several miles, the deaths of tens of thousands and a large region made uninhabitable for the foreseeable future. The blasts in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were tiny compared to the power of modern weapons.

Ukraine's experience of Chernobyl would be different too, in that this involved the meltdown of a reactor and a resulting cloud of radioactive material being spread over an area measuring hundreds of kilometres.

Actually I believe the radioactive fallout from a dirty bomb could be tidied up relatively quickly. Look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they were put together pretty quick and they were fully nuked.

Besides, this scare mongering seems eerily to coincide quite coincidentally with the people uprising against western-backed dictators in the Middle East. Such uprisings, especially if it happens in Saudi Arabia too, could well put Israel and the US's nose out of joint, if the true democratic will of the people of these nations is known (i.e. they hate the oppression of Israel and the US and will not do business with them).

Obviously the US/Israel can't be having that, so a convenient dirty bomb in Washington for example, that can be framed as being built by Saudi/Egyptian terrorists would give them the perfect example to invade these newly rogue/lawless states and secure the oil fields and Suez Canal, cough, sorry, secure homeland security.

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From a scientific perspective, a dirty bomb could be cleaned up pretty quickly - the blast radius is not exactly huge, you'd have to clean up a few blocks at most. From an emotional perspective, people would be whining about radiation for decades.

If they want to cause real problems, I'd give up on airports (very hard) and target broader public transport. If they did a few more 7/7 attacks, London would be shut down. Can you imagine having body scanners and airport style security at all stations and bus stops? No dirty bomb required, just a bit of semtex.

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If they want to cause real problems, I'd give up on airports (very hard) and target broader public transport. If they did a few more 7/7 attacks, London would be shut down. Can you imagine having body scanners and airport style security at all stations and bus stops? No dirty bomb required, just a bit of semtex.

There's a body of opinion that the 7/7 bombers were actually trying to blow out a tube tunnel where it passes under the Thames. The resultant flood would have rendered the tube system unusable for years, if it could ever be pummped out, and would have drowned thousands of people.

AQ mainly don't bomb planes because they are not interested in inflicting pinprick damage. They have already perfected the art of filling a bomber's colon with liquid explosive and detonating it by mobile phone. They can take out any plane they want any time they want.

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There's a body of opinion that the 7/7 bombers were actually trying to blow out a tube tunnel where it passes under the Thames. The resultant flood would have rendered the tube system unusable for years, if it could ever be pummped out, and would have drowned thousands of people.

What was the tv drama that featured bombs and tube flooding?

Something about crisis management - testing out to see if people could make the right decisions in time...

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In other news, confirmed by Microsoft and Norton, there is a virus going round, very nasty, that when activated your computer will get up and punch you in the mouth, then declare war on the entire human race.

you read it here first on wakkileaks.

oh, and where is the inside gen on BoA that wikki was going to devastate the banking sector with....in January.

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Except that none of the bombs went off anywhere near the river.

And tube tunnels are steel lined and it's not as if the tunnels are 3ft below the river bed when they go under the Thames anyway.

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You don't need to be a scientist to build a "dirty bomb". You just need a way of distributing radioactive material over a wide area. Wrapping a conventional explosive in U238 would do it. I could sit here and order everything I need and have it delivered to the door.

Are you seriously suggesting that you or I could simply order a supply of U238 and the required conventional explosive online or on the 'phone, and then sit back and wait for City Link to show up at the front door?!

This is not a new threat. The Soviets were pioneering atom bombs in suitcases and planning to sneak them into New York.

A project that was the inspiration for the novel The Fourth Protocol. If the technical detail in it is correct (and Forsyth has frequently been criticised for providing detailed information that could be used by criminals, e.g. the method of obtaining a bogus passport described in The Day of the Jackal), the only serious problems a terrorist would encounter are obtaining enriched uranium and obtaining an initiator, e.g. Polonium. Obtaining a conventional high explosive would prove a significant though lesser problem (private citizens can't just buy the stuff, but it isn't regulated as heavily as radioactive material is); but once you've got those items, everything else you need can be bought from B & Q and the expertise and kit needed to fabricate and assemble a Hiroshima-type bomb can be found in any small business machine shop.

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Are you seriously suggesting that you or I could simply order a supply of U238 and the required conventional explosive online or on the 'phone, and then sit back and wait for City Link to show up at the front door?!

A project that was the inspiration for the novel The Fourth Protocol. If the technical detail in it is correct (and Forsyth has frequently been criticised for providing detailed information that could be used by criminals, e.g. the method of obtaining a bogus passport described in The Day of the Jackal), the only serious problems a terrorist would encounter are obtaining enriched uranium and obtaining an initiator, e.g. Polonium. Obtaining a conventional high explosive would prove a significant though lesser problem (private citizens can't just buy the stuff, but it isn't regulated as heavily as radioactive material is); but once you've got those items, everything else you need can be bought from B & Q and the expertise and kit needed to fabricate and assemble a Hiroshima-type bomb can be found in any small business machine shop.

we are talking dirty here, not fission.

they just want to lay waste to square miles of land with radioactive material....it aint gonna happen...although doing it with asbestos will have the same effect...the HSE will do the work for them.

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Ho hum

Another tired old 'terror' threat trotted to distract the western masses and stop them having any real understanding of the politics of the Islamic world.

If AQ were a genuinely revolutionary organisation who want to recreate the Islamic Caliphate then they would be trying to exploit the mass uprisings that are currently occuring in the Arab world not wasting their time on hackneyed Bond style plots against the West Next thing we will be hearing tales about their secret headquarters in a volcano and the solar powered death ray they have perfected.

It is strange how modern Islamic terrorists can only ever imagine attacks against generalised populations yet never appear to target individual leaders of the western elite. Stranger still when you consider that between 1890 and 1914 small groups of anarchists armed with the crudest of devices managed to kill 6 western heads of state including a US president, a French president, a king of Italy, an Empress of Austria and 2 Spanish Premiers. Really when it comes to changing the world and achieving their aims AQ are useless. They really ought to jack it in.

The real truth is that the wests enemies in Islamic world and elsewhere do not need to lift a finger to destroy us.

Our politicians and the banks are doing it for them

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we are talking dirty here, not fission.

I know, and agree that a dirty bomb will be the most likely form of any nuclear terrorist act if, God forbid, one should happen.

But although it would be easier for terrorists to obtain the materials needed for a dirty bomb and then build one, a fission bomb is not beyond the realms of possibility. The knowledge needed to do so is in the public domain. The materials, infrastructure and craft skills needed to apply that knowledge would be more difficult to bring together than those needed for a dirty bomb, but I don't think it can be ruled out.

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You don't need to be a scientist to build a "dirty bomb". You just need a way of distributing radioactive material over a wide area. Wrapping a conventional explosive in U238 would do it. I could sit here and order everything I need and have it delivered to the door. If "The Data" really wanted to do this they'd have done it a long time ago. They are obviously not as motivated as the IRA were :rolleyes:

Except U238 isn't radioactive...

You'd have more of a toxic heavy metal bomb, except thousands of times less efficient than the widescale lead distribution that car exhausts performed till recently

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Some very worrying quotes:

An Indian national security adviser told American security personnel in June 2008 that terrorists had made a "manifest attempt to get fissile material" and "have the technical competence to manufacture an explosive device beyond a mere dirty bomb".

Kazakhstan possesses enough spent fuel to fabricate 775 nuclear weapons and "access to dangerous biological and chemical substances by terrorists remains a concern", according to a September 2009 cable from the embassy in Astana.

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[

AQ mainly don't bomb planes because they are not interested in inflicting pinprick damage. They have already perfected the art of filling a bomber's colon with liquid explosive and detonating it by mobile phone. They can take out any plane they want any time they want.

When did they do this? Haven't heard this before

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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