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House Price Crash Forum
neon tetra

Nationwide -0.1% Mom -1.1% Yoy

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This brings prices to sept 09, except we were then on an upwardly trajectory, where as we have had six negatives in a row now. Fingers crossed we've now turned once and for all.

The report mentions labour market stability and low interest rates as support for prices. Both seem short lived with public sector job cuts and the boe finally taking a more hawkish stand.

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Some big seasonal adjustment, once again.

Dec 10 £162,763

Jan 11 £161,602

Actually it's 0.7% down.

We had that last time, seasonally adjusted was 0.4% up MoM but the actual was 0.4% down MoM. Coincidentally they have added a 0.8% seasonally adjusted rise each month.

That's a dangerous game they're playing with all those fiddles, storing up trouble for themselves for the summer.

As "I" (Marwood) nearly said:

Seasonal adjustment is like a dozen transatlantic flights without ever getting off the plane. Prices change. You gain. Makes no difference so long as you keep fiddling the figures. But sooner or later you’ve got to get out because it’s crashing, and all at once those frozen seasonal adjustments melt through the indices and seep out the pores.

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It certainly isnt a crash.

Time is important too. You only have so much time in your life. If it takes 20 years for house prices to fall to 'traditional levels' a whole generation will be wiped out. That would be little better than no reduction at all.

So far what we are seeing is little better than nothing I'm afraid to say.

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Looking at past data, Dec and Jan are always months with a heavy seasonal adjustment in favour of rises. That trend reverses in Feb. A similar nominal fall will be given a headline of down 1% in Feb. It is happening / coming....

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It certainly isnt a crash.

Time is important too. You only have so much time in your life. If it takes 20 years for house prices to fall to 'traditional levels' a whole generation will be wiped out. That would be little better than no reduction at all.

So far what we are seeing is little better than nothing I'm afraid to say.

I am seeing much worse than nothing.

We let a place go in dec 2008 which we really liked. Prices are still more today than they were then. I cant get a mortgage at anywhere near the deal that was on offer then so whenever I get one it is going to cost a good deal more. I have also had the pleasure of paying over £26,000 in rent for feck all instead of paying 2 years worth of a mortgage.

To summarise, higher cost for house, higher cost for mortgage, £26k wasted, 2 years mortgage paying wasted - great fking crash so far :unsure:

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It certainly isnt a crash.

Time is important too. You only have so much time in your life. If it takes 20 years for house prices to fall to 'traditional levels' a whole generation will be wiped out. That would be little better than no reduction at all.

So far what we are seeing is little better than nothing I'm afraid to say.

a generation is going to be wiped out either way, slow crash, fast crash or no crash, in the end it will be the same as always, luck as to which it is

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I am seeing much worse than nothing.

We let a place go in dec 2008 which we really liked. Prices are still more today than they were then. I cant get a mortgage at anywhere near the deal that was on offer then so whenever I get one it is going to cost a good deal more. I have also had the pleasure of paying over £26,000 in rent for feck all instead of paying 2 years worth of a mortgage.

To summarise, higher cost for house, higher cost for mortgage, £26k wasted, 2 years mortgage paying wasted - great fking crash so far :unsure:

Yes. If you look very hard you can see what you want to see. A rogue figure here, a massive price drop there, which you can construe to mean cheap houses for everyone in a years time.

Overall though, I am seeing nothing of any note. There does appear to be a tiny downward movement in house prices at the moment, but nothing more than that.

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Oh wow, -0.1%. Barely worth getting up for. It reflects what I'm seeing here, barely anything shifting. Maybe it's not going to happen after all. It's the same minute fraction of a percent every bl00dy month.

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It certainly isnt a crash.

Time is important too. You only have so much time in your life. If it takes 20 years for house prices to fall to 'traditional levels' a whole generation will be wiped out. That would be little better than no reduction at all.

So far what we are seeing is little better than nothing I'm afraid to say.

top of the bull trap.

that was my prediction a couple of years ago, we've had the bull trap, now its down down down.

factors in favour...insolvency in banking leading to hard lending criteria

jobs

pay rises held

interest rate rises in actuality

severe commodities price rises

potential factors

BoE rate rises

starving people cause worldwide disruption

stock market collapse

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I am seeing much worse than nothing.

We let a place go in dec 2008 which we really liked. Prices are still more today than they were then. I cant get a mortgage at anywhere near the deal that was on offer then so whenever I get one it is going to cost a good deal more. I have also had the pleasure of paying over £26,000 in rent for feck all instead of paying 2 years worth of a mortgage.

To summarise, higher cost for house, higher cost for mortgage, £26k wasted, 2 years mortgage paying wasted - great fking crash so far :unsure:

if you can not anybody can not too. if everybody can not then the price will go down .... so simple ...

Edited by Damik

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Yes. If you look very hard you can see what you want to see. A rogue figure here, a massive price drop there, which you can construe to mean cheap houses for everyone in a years time.

Overall though, I am seeing nothing of any note. There does appear to be a tiny downward movement in house prices at the moment, but nothing more than that.

If we had gone ahead with the purchase with the mortgage deal that I had then I would have paid £13k in mortgage payments instead of £26k in rent.

I would either have an extra £13k in the bank or could have paid off 4 years worth of the mortgage in 2.

Add to that houses costing over £10k more than they did then and I need a substantial crash just to break even.

I am sure that many are in a mus=ch better position now than 2 years ago but not all of us.

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if you can not anybody can not too. if everybody can not then the price will go down .... so simple ...

NO.

I can get a mortgage for what I want.

I cant get it for really really low rate that I could.

It will cost me substantially more now than it would have.

It will cost us all substantially more than it would have.

Simple.

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If we had gone ahead with the purchase with the mortgage deal that I had then I would have paid £13k in mortgage payments instead of £26k in rent.

I would either have an extra £13k in the bank or could have paid off 4 years worth of the mortgage in 2.

Add to that houses costing over £10k more than they did then and I need a substantial crash just to break even.

I am sure that many are in a mus=ch better position now than 2 years ago but not all of us.

hmm .... my rent is £875 .... place cost £250k in 2007 .... so my mortgage would be around £1400 ... why should I buy ????

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NO.

I can get a mortgage for what I want.

I cant get it for really really low rate that I could.

It will cost me substantially more now than it would have.

It will cost us all substantially more than it would have.

Simple.

and same for everybody else ... so the house prices will go down .... think about it

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top of the bull trap.

that was my prediction a couple of years ago, we've had the bull trap, now its down down down.

factors in favour...insolvency in banking leading to hard lending criteria

jobs

pay rises held

interest rate rises in actuality

severe commodities price rises

potential factors

BoE rate rises

starving people cause worldwide disruption

stock market collapse

Well I hope you are right.

Interest rates are always key, and at the moment, people in homes are sitting pretty with little need to sell at knockdown prices. If they have work, for most payments are affordable. Those in trouble are finding that they are not getting repossessed, and are therefore living off the shareholders of the bank. Others are getting SMI to pay for their free home.

The subsidies for those in homes, paid for those without them via their taxes, is offsetting a reduction in 'loose' mortgage finance, or less 'liar loans' as Eric Pebble might say. There also appears to be a reduction in general affordability with prices rising by more than wages, particularly for those in the private sector. Ironically those on benefits get inflation matching rises.

As long as the government can keep borrowing to subsidise those in homes, and keep interest rates low, other changes in circumstances such as less finance, are only going to have a small impact on the overall price level.

As I said earlier, the real bust comes when interest rates go up. Not only do they hit stretched mortgage holders in the pockets, banks will suddenly feel a fresh urgency to repossess, and government will find a lot less money with which to subsidise.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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