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nicko75

House Price Maths - What Am I Missing Here?...

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Just starting to tentatively sniff out the market with a view to maybe buying in 12 months time or so - would be looking to buy somewhere big enough to be a "home" as the costs of moving now seem to prohibit the "ladder" theory. Anyway, i digress - so, ive been looking at a few places and doing a bit of cheeky reserch using Zoopla, Google streetview and the Nationwide index..

Take this place...

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=7294412

20 minutes on Google Streetview reveals this is number 39 Somerset Road, Kingston. Zoopla tells me this last sold in July 2004 - for £242,000. Zoopla (whose valuations are always on the generous side) currently value this place at £305,408.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/39-somerset-road/kingston-upon-thames/kt1-3ea/11748309

Applying the Nationwide House Price Calculator (and using Greater London as the region which is being generous but gives the greatest HPI figure over the time) tells me this place should now be worth £288,496

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/Default.asp?calculate=true

This place is on the market for £409,950!!!!! "Overpriced" by a factor of 42%!!!....

A couple of things here:

(i) With the amount of openly available information online as I have used here, it is surely only going to get harder for people to find the "greater fool" prepared to pay so far over the odds and

(ii) Its clear to me now how great the disconnect is between sellers and prospective buyers in terms of their view of "worth". Still think we are going to require the job losses / interest rate rises etc to make a property like this costing £290,000 a reality - people will just "ride it out" otherwise. I do wonder how many of these sales are speculative. Rents are on the rise in Kingston - people in places like this will either stay put or just rent it out.

Anyway, its given me hope. I've obvioulsy not been near the place and assessed it but under £300,000 for a 4 bed house in Kingston doesnt see too bad - who knows, maybe its going to get even better from here...??..!

:)

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Just starting to tentatively sniff out the market with a view to maybe buying in 12 months time or so - would be looking to buy somewhere big enough to be a "home" as the costs of moving now seem to prohibit the "ladder" theory. Anyway, i digress - so, ive been looking at a few places and doing a bit of cheeky reserch using Zoopla, Google streetview and the Nationwide index..

Take this place...

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=7294412

20 minutes on Google Streetview reveals this is number 39 Somerset Road, Kingston. Zoopla tells me this last sold in July 2004 - for £242,000. Zoopla (whose valuations are always on the generous side) currently value this place at £305,408.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/39-somerset-road/kingston-upon-thames/kt1-3ea/11748309

Applying the Nationwide House Price Calculator (and using Greater London as the region which is being generous but gives the greatest HPI figure over the time) tells me this place should now be worth £288,496

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/Default.asp?calculate=true

This place is on the market for £409,950!!!!! "Overpriced" by a factor of 42%!!!....

A couple of things here:

(i) With the amount of openly available information online as I have used here, it is surely only going to get harder for people to find the "greater fool" prepared to pay so far over the odds and

(ii) Its clear to me now how great the disconnect is between sellers and prospective buyers in terms of their view of "worth". Still think we are going to require the job losses / interest rate rises etc to make a property like this costing £290,000 a reality - people will just "ride it out" otherwise. I do wonder how many of these sales are speculative. Rents are on the rise in Kingston - people in places like this will either stay put or just rent it out.

Anyway, its given me hope. I've obvioulsy not been near the place and assessed it but under £300,000 for a 4 bed house in Kingston doesnt see too bad - who knows, maybe its going to get even better from here...??..!

:)

Unashamedly bumping this as it took so long to moderate it landed near the bottom of the page

:)

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Unashamedly bumping this as it took so long to moderate it landed near the bottom of the page

:)

Not sure what your point is.

That's actually one of the cheapest asking prices for a house of that standard in the area.

Your logic isn't wrong, but until some of the vendors see it that way it won't mean a thing.

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I rented near there in my early 20's and that is a horrid part of Kingston with nasty estates and heavy traffic too close for comfort.

Your's right, its grotesquely over-priced - I wouldn't buy there or anywhere right now. Too many sellers are living a delusion. Wait out the reality gap if I were you.

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Who knows but ultimately they have put it on for a price and as a proposed buyer you could put a bid in line with your research....

however....

the previous price sold can be misleading as it won't state the condition the property was in. Maybe it's been extensively extended. I suppose you could also check for properties on the street that have sold in the last couple of years to see if it's overpriced. Kingston give the figures today, went up by 11% in the past year. Crazy prices, for an area that looks increasingly over bloated. I speak as a resident so I know that Kingston is grossly overpriced. Usually this area is sold on the reputations of local schools, shops etc, basically anything that creates this rose tinted view. I'm not sure this area is really accessible for a first time buyer.

Good luck,

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Not sure what your point is.

That's actually one of the cheapest asking prices for a house of that standard in the area.

Your logic isn't wrong, but until some of the vendors see it that way it won't mean a thing.

OK.. different property, same point...

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=7844249

75 Alfred Road - on the market at £459,950.... Last changed hands in Apr 95 for £90,000 - Zoopla says £368,717 - Nationwide HPI says £347,641.......... a "reality gap" of 32%

I guess my point for discussion is whether this gap is suddenly going to disappear as this thing gathers pace - or whether in certain areas such as North Surrey etc, people will stay put or rent out if they cannot achieve this silly money - my gut feel (and hope obviously) is the former.....

Agree with TwoWolves - Ive lived in Kingston for the last 3years (nr the High Street) and the Somerset Road property must be just behind the 3 or 4 horrible council blocks on the other side of town - one of them had the top 3 floors burnt off about 3 months ago - not sure if they've sorted that out yet either....

Edited by nicko75

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OK.. different property, same point...

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=7844249

75 Alfred Road - on the market at £459,950.... Last changed hands in Apr 95 for £90,000 - Zoopla says £368,717 - Nationwide HPI says £347,641.......... a "reality gap" of 32%

I guess my point for discussion is whether this gap is suddenly going to disappear as this thing gathers pace - or whether in certain areas such as North Surrey etc, people will stay put or rent out if they cannot achieve this silly money - my gut feel (and hope obviously) is the former.....

Agree with TwoWolves - Ive lived in Kingston for 3years (nr the High Street) and the Somerset Road property must be just behind the 3 or 4 horrible council blocks on the other side of town - one of them had the top 3 floors burnt off about 3 month ago - not sure if they've sorted that out yet either....

The top floors are uninhabited and they still look very much burnt. I feel that I will be eventually forced out of this area once I look at buying.

Edited by kittingerjump

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The top floors are uninhabited and they still look very much burnt. I feel that I will be eventually forced out of this area once I look at buying.

Keep the faith Kittingerjump! Where do you stay in KT at the mo? Im in Avante Court...

To an extent I understand the surge in prices in Kingston and Surbiton. As someone who moved to London in 1997 (and should have bought then but I was only 21 and a trainee accountant so I was always a bit behind the curve as prices took off), Ive rented in Clapham & Fulham and have seen how these previously "middle professional" areas have also become unaffordable to most, forcing people out to Zone 6, especially with the train service out of Surbiton, unrivalled anywhere else other than Clapham Junction in SW London....

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Nice work nicko75. Tbh the "reality gap" that you're reporting doesn't surprise me, 0.5% interest rates and BofE funny money coupled with large scale deficit spending heavily distort price signals and encourage speculative kite flying.

Just like the rest of us homeowners are trying to interpret all the information and make sense of it, it's clear the gov't will prop up house prices at any cost so the market will respond in kind.

Best sit it out and wait for those rate hikes!

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Applying the Nationwide House Price Calculator (and using Greater London as the region which is being generous but gives the greatest HPI figure over the time) tells me this place should now be worth £288,496

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/Default.asp?calculate=true

This place is on the market for £409,950!!!!! "Overpriced" by a factor of 42%!!!....

...

Anyway, its given me hope. I've obvioulsy not been near the place and assessed it but under £300,000 for a 4 bed house in Kingston doesnt see too bad - who knows, maybe its going to get even better from here...??..!

:)

Just note that the Nationwide figure is an average across all property types - it's not uncommon for flats to fall whilst houses rise, for example

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We lived in kew in 1999 and for a laugh we would look in the estate agents windows and be amazed at the prices houses in the area would go for. So much so, we kept a local house paper for posterity. Only a few years later and those prices now seem cheap for here in wiltshire!

People have lost sight of real property value. The places you are talking about are over a quarter of a million pounds and yet they are ordinary family homes, not homes for the uber rich!

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I have said this before - in the current market, the asking price is actually an indication of how much debt the vendors have. So

If the housde is £100k overpriced, you know the guy got about £50k on credit cards and another £50k on unsecured loans. He expects you to pay it.

Or if the house is 25% overpriced, you know the guy borrowed from Nothern Rock. And he expects you to pay it.

and so on

The guy is technically bankrupt long time ago, but thanks to the USSK government, bankruptcy has been made history.

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To be honest if you really want to do the maths then work out what all the places you look at are in terms of per sq foot , with some adjustment for location / condition and amount of of bad space loft / cellar etc , looks like most of the stuff in that area comes in at 400-500 per sqft , compared to closer to 1000 in a decent area near the center of London , those punters forced out of more expensive areas are probably thinking this area is relatively affordable, I dont think you should look at a given house and say he should sell it to me for x if his price per sq foot is on par with where stuff is being transacted irrespective of what was paid in the past , now whether the price per sq foot is going up or down is a seperate question , with the economy going down the toilet really there has to be hope that prices will too ....

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Keep the faith Kittingerjump!

I am...just! Some good points from catsick and something I've not really thought about...so simple but makes sense. I would add that most of these so called loft conversions are built to a pretty poor standard. I suppose you could go in for a low offer and include this is based on the fact that you would have to redo the space from scratch to make it liveable....

Go back twenty years and lofts were a place to put unwanted presents throughout life and the occasional wasps nest!

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I rented near there in my early 20's and that is a horrid part of Kingston with nasty estates and heavy traffic too close for comfort.

Your's right, its grotesquely over-priced - I wouldn't buy there or anywhere right now. Too many sellers are living a delusion. Wait out the reality gap if I were you.

+ 1

Nice work nicko75. Tbh the "reality gap" that you're reporting doesn't surprise me, 0.5% interest rates and BofE funny money coupled with large scale deficit spending heavily distort price signals and encourage speculative kite flying.

Just like the rest of us homeowners are trying to interpret all the information and make sense of it, it's clear the gov't will prop up house prices at any cost so the market will respond in kind.

Best sit it out and wait for those rate hikes!

+ 1

Just not sure if this government will "prop up house prices at any cost". I think they just want to cushion the fall. But this is a little off this thread's topic, particularly as the OP is thinking about buying in a years time. I am quite sure things will be much more clear by then, for all of us.

2011 will probably be the most interesting year in this HPI/HPC saga. :)

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Anyway, its given me hope. I've obvioulsy not been near the place and assessed it but under £300,000 for a 4 bed house in Kingston doesnt see too bad - who knows, maybe its going to get even better from here...??..!

:)

I don't want to dash your hopes, but this is not really a good buy, even at £300k. It is a 4 bedroom house, but only by virtue of the loft conversion. It started life as a 2 up, 2 down and not a big one either. Somerset Road looks pleasant enough, but is in possibly the worst part of Kingston because of it's proximity to the Cambridge Estate and lack of proximity to the town centre, river or Surbiton station.

Until very recently(end 2009), you could pick up one of these houses without the loft conversion for £250k. Throw £50k at it for the conversion and you would have a similar house to this one. It can't be long before the prices are back there again.

I have lived in the area for over 15 years. I love it, but I'd rather move somewhere else than live in that part of town.

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Keep the faith Kittingerjump! Where do you stay in KT at the mo? Im in Avante Court...

To an extent I understand the surge in prices in Kingston and Surbiton. As someone who moved to London in 1997 (and should have bought then but I was only 21 and a trainee accountant so I was always a bit behind the curve as prices took off), Ive rented in Clapham & Fulham and have seen how these previously "middle professional" areas have also become unaffordable to most, forcing people out to Zone 6, especially with the train service out of Surbiton, unrivalled anywhere else other than Clapham Junction in SW London....

This is exactly what I have seen. The amount of people living around here that would be more at home in Fulham is unbelievable now. I think this has happened to a certain extent in most of the outlying London areas, but Kingston and Surbiton had the advantage (or disadvantage!) of being reasonably nice areas in the first place, so I guess the jump outwards was not quite as bad as it would have been to Croydon or Sutton.

This has caused the nicer parts of the area to become shockingly over-priced (check out the £500k 2 bed cottages in Cleaveland Road, £700k '30s semis in The Mall and higher prices still around Canbury Gardens.)

I was worried that Kingston might become more polarised like Clapham with the poorer areas declining further as the incomers are not interested in them. An asking price of £410k for the Somerset Road house you linked to shows that this is not the case yet!

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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