Latest Land Reg

[rantnrave]

Down 0.2% MoM YoY =1.5%

Price = 163,814

These are December's figures. A rise in the number of newbuild igloos coming to market prevented a greater fall.

Edited January 31, 2011 by rantnrave

[exiges]

YoY =1.5%

Whoop de doo

It's in the right direction.. but not the right speed.

I see detached houses are 3% YOY compared to say 0% YOY for terraced houses, confirms my thoughts that it's only the equity-rich trading amongst themselves keeping this ball in the air.

London YoY is 6%.. skewing the stats further.

Again, look.. the FTB lower end market is on it's ar5e.. it's just the upper end skewing the stats.

Edited January 31, 2011 by exiges

[fellow]

Whoop de doo

It's in the right direction.. but not the right speed.

Down is down. Also remember that the LR figures lag behind a few months.

[The Masked Tulip]

Down is down. Also remember that the LR figures lag behind a few months.

As the bishop said to the showgirl.

[Pent Up]

Down 0.2% MoM YoY =1.5%

Price = 163,814

These are December's figures. A rise in the number of newbuild igloos coming to market prevented a greater fall.

New builds aren't included.

I was hoping for more but at least it's negative.

[rantnrave]

Is it seasonally adjusted? I make the actual HP figure down by a grand, so a fall of 0.6%?

[rantnrave]

New builds aren't included.

TIC BTW

[getknk]

does dec10 mean the real data compiled in Nov10?

or is the real data for Dec10?

[exiges]

Down is down.

Trouble is, to misquote, after the decimal point nobody cares.

Unless we see 1%, 2% etc drops people will see nought-point-something as near-zero.

Edited January 31, 2011 by exiges

[Pent Up]

TIC BTW

Pardon?

[Pent Up]

Any revision to the previous month?

[fellow]

Again, look.. the FTB lower end market is on it's ar5e.. it's just the upper end skewing the stats.

Very good point. With so few sales, the higher end houses are hiding the falls at the lower end.

[Cozza]

YoY =1.5%

Whoop de doo

It's in the right direction.. but not the right speed.

I see detached houses are 3% YOY compared to say 0% YOY for terraced houses, confirms my thoughts that it's only the equity-rich trading amongst themselves keeping this ball in the air.

London YoY is 6%.. skewing the stats further.

Again, look.. the FTB lower end market is on it's ar5e.. it's just the upper end skewing the stats.

Yet a significant majority of London Boroughs are showing falls.

[rantnrave]

Pardon?

Tongue In Cheek By The Way

The snow is being blamed in just about every data set at the moment....

[Cozza]

Very good point. With so few sales, the higher end houses are hiding the falls at the lower end.

It looks like between Oct 09 - Oct 10, sales of properties costing £150,000 - £300,000 have dropped off a cliff

[AnotherBear]

Average price £164,773

Change Monthly -0.2%

Annual 1.5%

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/www/wps/portal/PrimaryWebsite

[Pent Up]

Tongue In Cheek By The Way

The snow is being blamed in just about every data set at the moment....

Ah ok.

Can't blame the snow for this, the majority of these sales would have been agreed around September.

[Constable]

Link

[Constable]

Yet a significant majority of London Boroughs are showing falls.

Wandsworth is typical of aspiring middle class London boroughs. The bull trap is just ending for them. Asking prices are still a joke in these places and volume has plunged. If you were trading a security the price would most likely have crashed by now - we all know the reasons they haven't yet, but crash they will...

[enrieb]

For anyone new to the forum here's a short video that explains how the land registry lags the other housing data.

Introduction to house price surveys

http://www.youtube.com/user/moneycontent#p/u/1/4vQln3YXWVo

[jonboy2010]

Down is down. Also remember that the LR figures lag behind a few months.

Thats right these are probally october figures ie (pre snow) so the next one should make better reading.

[scottbeard]

Very good point. With so few sales, the higher end houses are hiding the falls at the lower end.

Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

[jonboy2010]

Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

Seeing a lot of 300000 plus houses selling in the kent area but nothings moving in the 150-250 mark.

[fellow]

Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

If the price of every house remained the same, the huge decrease in lower priced house sales and significant increase in higher priced house sales would cause quite a large increase in the overall YoY figure. If you take this shift into account, prices must be falling much more rapidly than the figures show.

Edited January 31, 2011 by fellow

[Tricksy]

Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

You're right about this, they don't. The data in the table tells us that the overall is not significantly skewed by the upper end. Back of an envelope indexing shows that changes in the £1m+ bracket account for just 8% of the overall, whilst the <£500k group accounts for nearly 80%. The high volumes in the lower price range easily overpower the smaller number of high value transactions at the upper end.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

Yep. The table shows this quite clearly. 15% fewer transactions, with reductions concentrated at the lower end.

So I'm afraid that this data doesn't tell us that big falls at the lower end are being obscured by increases (or even stability) at the high end. It does tell us that transaction volumes for <£500k properties are down significantly, perhaps because the spread between buyers and sellers has become too wide. It is reasonable to conclude that market-clearing prices are presently below sellers expectations. But then we knew that already didn't we....?

Edited January 31, 2011 by Tricksy