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rantnrave
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YoY =1.5%

Whoop de doo <_<

It's in the right direction.. but not the right speed.

I see detached houses are 3% YOY compared to say 0% YOY for terraced houses, confirms my thoughts that it's only the equity-rich trading amongst themselves keeping this ball in the air.

London YoY is 6%.. skewing the stats further.

Again, look.. the FTB lower end market is on it's ar5e.. it's just the upper end skewing the stats.

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Edited by exiges
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YoY =1.5%

Whoop de doo <_<

It's in the right direction.. but not the right speed.

I see detached houses are 3% YOY compared to say 0% YOY for terraced houses, confirms my thoughts that it's only the equity-rich trading amongst themselves keeping this ball in the air.

London YoY is 6%.. skewing the stats further.

Again, look.. the FTB lower end market is on it's ar5e.. it's just the upper end skewing the stats.

Untitled-2lr.gif

Yet a significant majority of London Boroughs are showing falls.

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Yet a significant majority of London Boroughs are showing falls.

Wandsworth is typical of aspiring middle class London boroughs. The bull trap is just ending for them. Asking prices are still a joke in these places and volume has plunged. If you were trading a security the price would most likely have crashed by now - we all know the reasons they haven't yet, but crash they will...

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Very good point. With so few sales, the higher end houses are hiding the falls at the lower end.

Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

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Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

Seeing a lot of 300000 plus houses selling in the kent area but nothings moving in the 150-250 mark.

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Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

If the price of every house remained the same, the huge decrease in lower priced house sales and significant increase in higher priced house sales would cause quite a large increase in the overall YoY figure. If you take this shift into account, prices must be falling much more rapidly than the figures show.

Edited by fellow
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Hard to believe the small handful of big houses are overpowering the effect of 10,000 fewer small houses.

You're right about this, they don't. The data in the table tells us that the overall is not significantly skewed by the upper end. Back of an envelope indexing shows that changes in the £1m+ bracket account for just 8% of the overall, whilst the <£500k group accounts for nearly 80%. The high volumes in the lower price range easily overpower the smaller number of high value transactions at the upper end.

Seems more likely that fewer houses are selling, but not for much cheaper than they were last year.

Yep. The table shows this quite clearly. 15% fewer transactions, with reductions concentrated at the lower end.

So I'm afraid that this data doesn't tell us that big falls at the lower end are being obscured by increases (or even stability) at the high end. It does tell us that transaction volumes for <£500k properties are down significantly, perhaps because the spread between buyers and sellers has become too wide. It is reasonable to conclude that market-clearing prices are presently below sellers expectations. But then we knew that already didn't we....?

Edited by Tricksy
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