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grizzly bear

What's The Consensus?

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Basically STR in Sept 2008 because we wanted to move to different area/bigger house.

Things still selling at peak prices (NW London, zone 3/4).

Are we deluded thinking things will fall or should we bite the bullet and buy? TBH part of the problem is that nothing decent comes on and when it does goes for asking price often above what it would have got in 2007.

Our rented house is fine, landlord reasonable, rent ok. But would be nice to have our own house.

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well obviously now is the time to buy, what could possibly go wrong

:o:o:o:o

Part of me thinks now is a dreadful time, but then others are buying and prices have been resilient so far (not that thats any indication). Happy to stay in rented house for a bit long, but not for several years more.

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Yes, prices will fall, but not before interest rates rise. They will probably rise later this year, and prices will probably start falling once the 2012 spring bounce fails to materialise.

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Things are mainly falling in the lower price brackets up here in Scotland. Bit of a bugger, really... people are holding out as long as they can until a life event hits them, nobody is wanting to sell at a loss. So for all the talk, I'm still not seeing reductions in the properties I'm interested in.

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I think onesmallstep was being sarky.

Hard to say what will happen in the London, especially with money feely flowing in from overseas so that the elite can get their London home. But there are loads of us that cannot / do not want to get a massive mortgage to meet current house price demands.

E.g. Me and the GF are 25 - would be first time buyers, can't even think about buying. Combined income of 57300. Live in Reading. Have £10k losing value in the ISA. The best mortgage out there (although still a shyte deal) wants a 40% deposit - £80k on a £200k home. Throw in inflation into the mix and you've got a fairly sorry looking situation.

You might think that the millions of potential buyers out there in the same situation might have a negative effect on house prices...

Edited by Superted187

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Wow good combined income, well done!

£200k still a hell of a lot... good head on your shoulders, wait it out. Or better yet, get out of here and move somewhere with some sun and quality housing for less... (tell me where this is if you find out)

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Why jump ship when you can see the shore getting closer?

I know... although might jump ship for perfect house if affordable.

Sometimes I feel really down that we haven't bought - because we could have done and prices here have held up.

FWIW we have a combined income of £150k (I work part time as we have kids), but if we didn't have our (significant) STR money (first bought in 1997) we wouldn't be able to buy even a small family house in outer London.

Also worried about inflation, ie that interest rates will be left low so that debts (and savings) inflate away.

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My concern has shifted.

I have moved from a situation of seeking to borrow to expand my business and to buy a home to now cancelling the expansion of the business and postponing buying the home to try to ensure my present business is secure. I fear for the effect the forthcoming cuts will have on it. We live on site at the business by the way.

I cannot see expansion being sensible until all borrowing of the business is paid off despite this being at an unrepeatable rate now.

I now feel it would be madness to buy a home too. Just a few months ago I offered £410k on a £495k house ( previously had been on at £550k). I doubt I would buy at £350k if it were offered now.

I think the crash is just about to start in earnest. It will not need rise in interest rates now just for the effect of the cuts to be felt and reported.

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Wow good combined income, well done!

£200k still a hell of a lot... good head on your shoulders, wait it out. Or better yet, get out of here and move somewhere with some sun and quality housing for less... (tell me where this is if you find out)

Thanks - we've actually been genuinely considering going abroad for a few years while we can as we have no commitments at the mo. Especially as the GF is a little worried about her job security - shes a secondary school teacher, and forget what you've heard about magical "ringfenced" budgets. Teachers are getting the sack.

We looked at Hong Kong (massive wages and bonuses and I've got family out there), but the staggering housing costs would wipe out any salary! We're still looking. Just bored of being trapped working and bankrolling UK PLC.

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Thanks - we've actually been genuinely considering going abroad for a few years while we can as we have no commitments at the mo. Especially as the GF is a little worried about her job security - shes a secondary school teacher, and forget what you've heard about magical "ringfenced" budgets. Teachers are getting the sack.

We looked at Hong Kong (massive wages and bonuses and I've got family out there), but the staggering housing costs would wipe out any salary! We're still looking. Just bored of being trapped working and bankrolling UK PLC.

If there is a chance she will be made redundant and get any sort of payout, do not go voluntarily. Take the money and then consider your options.

However, bear in mind that the pound is so fecked that anywhere you want to go will seem very expensive in terms of moving your savings over....

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My concern has shifted.

I have moved from a situation of seeking to borrow to expand my business and to buy a home to now cancelling the expansion of the business and postponing buying the home to try to ensure my present business is secure. I fear for the effect the forthcoming cuts will have on it. We live on site at the business by the way.

I cannot see expansion being sensible until all borrowing of the business is paid off despite this being at an unrepeatable rate now.

I now feel it would be madness to buy a home too. Just a few months ago I offered £410k on a £495k house ( previously had been on at £550k). I doubt I would buy at £350k if it were offered now.

I think the crash is just about to start in earnest. It will not need rise in interest rates now just for the effect of the cuts to be felt and reported.

Good post.

My girlfriend and I are in the position that we have no debt, a deposit saved, and we intend to continue renting. This isn't through a stroke of luck but careful planning having anticipated the coming sh!tstorm after spending the last 6 years observing the market, the economy, media and public sentiment and learning from HPC. Brown managed to kick the can down the street in 2008 / 2009 but we've caught up with it. The inevitable has once again arrived but this time Brown isn't walking the pavement.

I think it would be madness to buy in the current climate. I thought it would be madness to buy at any point over the last 6 years - and I was right. It's been 18 years since this country had a proper recession, I was in my early teens back then but I still remember the effect it had on people and conversations around me. It wasn't good and this time is set to be worse.

I'm giving it a couple of years. If this country has a proper and necessary recession (to undo all the malinvestment and to remind the sheeple of responsibility and restraint) followed by a proper recovery then I will consider buying here in the UK. House prices should be lower by then - or at least through wage inflation we'll all have the 8x salaries people claimed to have on their mortgage application forms! - plus it will be almost 2 decades before the next sh!tstorm so plenty of time to ride the next wave and prepare ourselves once again. If this doesn't happen then I don't think the UK will be a place in which I would like to live and raise a family.

In the image below I think we're approaching, if not at, the "fear" stage. In my opinion, now is the worst possible time to buy.

the-uk-property-house-price-bubble.png

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Basically STR in Sept 2008 because we wanted to move to different area/bigger house.

Things still selling at peak prices (NW London, zone 3/4).

Are we deluded thinking things will fall or should we bite the bullet and buy? TBH part of the problem is that nothing decent comes on and when it does goes for asking price often above what it would have got in 2007.

Our rented house is fine, landlord reasonable, rent ok. But would be nice to have our own house.

I was an STR but recently realised that any significant crash would only be in real-terms from now on. When 2/3 of my savings were earning little interest, I decided to buy with a +1.69% tracker and managed to keep the other third of the STR fund in NS&I index linked. Had to wait 7 years for the right place to come up at the right price though, a divorce/debt case that couldn't hold out any longer.

If you are a good investor and can maintain the real value of your savings, rent. Otherwise, buy from a forced seller.

(For FTBs, this advice does not apply).

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My personal view is that there is no possible way house prices can go up:

No credit

rising unemployment

rising costs

no pay rises

forced sellers.

Common sense really. Its just a case of how far and how fast.

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My personal view is that there is no possible way house prices can go up:

No credit

rising unemployment

rising costs

no pay rises

forced sellers.

Common sense really. Its just a case of how far and how fast.

I think the OP wwas asking if prices would go down, not up.

FWIW, I reckon they will pretty much hold steady for the good stuff.

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Basically STR in Sept 2008 because we wanted to move to different area/bigger house.

Things still selling at peak prices (NW London, zone 3/4).

Are we deluded thinking things will fall or should we bite the bullet and buy? TBH part of the problem is that nothing decent comes on and when it does goes for asking price often above what it would have got in 2007.

Our rented house is fine, landlord reasonable, rent ok. But would be nice to have our own house.

Sure prices will revert to (and are doing so again) to the traditional earnings multiple 2.5x. Where I believe a lot of HPCers are going to be surprised/disappointed is that there will be no post '93 recovery in real estate and for all those sitting on their cherished STR fund - unless you can buy your dream place outright forget it as the banks are insolvent. After the '90-92 recession the banks were not bust and so a lending recovery could take place. In that respect it will be different this time.

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Sure prices will revert to (and are doing so again) to the traditional earnings multiple 2.5x. Where I believe a lot of HPCers are going to be surprised/disappointed is that there will be no post '93 recovery in real estate and for all those sitting on their cherished STR fund - unless you can buy your dream place outright forget it as the banks are insolvent. After the '90-92 recession the banks were not bust and so a lending recovery could take place. In that respect it will be different this time.

Are you suggesting that prices will go down to 30 to 40k a shot? (the cost of houses if no loans were available)

If so you maybe right.

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Are you suggesting that prices will go down to 30 to 40k a shot? (the cost of houses if no loans were available)

If so you maybe right.

What I am suggesting is that prices will no rebound as they did post say 1995 - the mythical year that lots of HPCers wish to recreate so they can ride the next debt filled bubble themselves. All the ingredients are there for a Japanese style real estate slump and no subsequent recovery.

The banks are insolvent and that's why they aren't and won't be lending. Sorry to the bearer of bad news but it's an inevitable consequence of bail outs producing zombies.

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I think the OP wwas asking if prices would go down, not up.

FWIW, I reckon they will pretty much hold steady for the good stuff.

I take it you consider yours 'good stuff' when prices fall everything will fall......there may be 'good stuff' that is not for sale but that doesn't mean if it was it would not be less than what someone would value/pay for it today.

....a few houses in the road sold for less than expected will set the price for the houses around it. ;)

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Basically STR in Sept 2008 because we wanted to move to different area/bigger house.

Things still selling at peak prices (NW London, zone 3/4).

Are we deluded thinking things will fall or should we bite the bullet and buy? TBH part of the problem is that nothing decent comes on and when it does goes for asking price often above what it would have got in 2007.

Our rented house is fine, landlord reasonable, rent ok. But would be nice to have our own house.

I live in the "prosperous SE" about 5 miles East Of Brighton (shame HPC co uk removed the geographic marker on our AVATAR SPACE) and I am seeing 5 digit drops since about mid-December. Houses in the £250k rnage are dropping around 5-6%.

Of course, the EAs all say prices can nver fall in the propsrous SE as people are loaded with so much cash they can even afford to buy their kids extra homes. :lol:

The SE and London will be laid to waste just like it was in the "Big Crash"* (1989-96). The higher they go the further they have to fall.

______________________

The "Great Crash" in the UK began in 2007, stalled, and picked up again late 2010. The "stalling" will cost the market dear.

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I live in the "prosperous SE" about 5 miles East Of Brighton (shame HPC co uk removed the geographic marker on our AVATAR SPACE) and I am seeing 5 digit drops since about mid-December. Houses in the £250k rnage are dropping around 5-6%.

Of course, the EAs all say prices can nver fall in the propsrous SE as people are loaded with so much cash they can even afford to buy their kids extra homes. :lol:

The SE and London will be laid to waste just like it was in the "Big Crash"* (1989-96). The higher they go the further they have to fall.

______________________

The "Great Crash" in the UK began in 2007, stalled, and picked up again late 2010. The "stalling" will cost the market dear.

I am seeing 5 digit drops but only on a very few number of properties in the area I am looking at - the best properties are selling, the worst are having to adjust or stay on market for a long time. Apart from that Im seeing very few numbers and nothing is indicating that there will be any change this year - apart from the fact people will expect their property investments to increase - particularly with inflation on the rise.

Given the fact that BoE & government have been intimating there wont be any rate rises for the near future, I would not expect house prices to reduce in 2011.

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So the OP owned a house from 1997 to 2008 , the ultimate boom years for housing , he is on 150k a year and yet he still comes on this forum moaning because things havn't quite gone to plan since he speculated in the market in 2008.

My heart is truly bleeding.

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Given the fact that BoE & government have been intimating there wont be any rate rises for the near future, I would not expect house prices to reduce in 2011.

Agreed, that's a substantial part of it but I can't help but thinking that there is going to be new pressures put on the system from somewhere.

What will FORCE the government to put interest rates up? I guess the obvious answer is "NOTHING! THEY WON'T!" but...what might?

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Agreed, that's a substantial part of it but I can't help but thinking that there is going to be new pressures put on the system from somewhere.

What will FORCE the government to put interest rates up? I guess the obvious answer is "NOTHING! THEY WON'T!" but...what might?

perhaps when they stop using terms like "one-off circumstance" & admit the issues...sadly they wont everyone is tiptoeing around the edges & noone wants to be the person who started the avalanche...lets face it politicians, bankers etc have managed to drag this out now for 3 years, Im sure they could do the same for another 3

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What I am suggesting is that prices will no rebound as they did post say 1995 - the mythical year that lots of HPCers wish to recreate so they can ride the next debt filled bubble themselves. All the ingredients are there for a Japanese style real estate slump and no subsequent recovery.

The banks are insolvent and that's why they aren't and won't be lending. Sorry to the bearer of bad news but it's an inevitable consequence of bail outs producing zombies.

Ah yes Japan. I was there to see it happen (1989 to 2004)

The wife and I saved and saved but never bought as prices just kept falling. Others bought and are still stuck there.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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