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ralphmalph

The Pain We Are Going To Suffer

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I am listening to R5L this evening and obviously they are talking of cuts and they constantly use "The pain we are all going to suffer."

As far as I can tell the schools will still be there, the bins collected (once a week as well), my GP will not suddenly be eaten up by the ground, because the Coalition have stopped the stupid Labour plan of replacing local hospitals with mega factory hospitals miles away so the closure of my local hospital has been cancelled, the police will hopefully become more visible on the street due to paperwork being scrapped.

What other public services do I need?

On the personal money front so vat goes up 2.5%, fuel may be the pain point here but I can just drive slower and walk to the supermarket, if I buy some electrical goods then for every hundred pounds I will pay 2.50 more, seeing as I bought my last TV in 2004, I do not think this is going to bankrupt me. My mobile phone monthly charge has gone up 43p and I am worried how I can pay that massive amount. Then there is 1% on NI so if someone is on 25K that will be 200 a year or 4 pounds a week, well one less pack of fags then.

I think this media line is wrong and I do not see what they are trying to achieve. If you are a five a day cordinator, or community happy clappy executive, etc, etc then tere will be pain. But for the mass population it will just be business as usual.

The real pain is going to be Village Idiot Chris Huhne when the utility bills double to 2K a year because the wind farms do not produce enough energy and we have to recomission the old coal and nuke plants and the EU fines us 50billion quid for missing a carbon reduction target that for the UK alone is 25% of the total of the EU (thanks Labour).

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I am listening to R5L this evening and obviously they are talking of cuts and they constantly use "The pain we are all going to suffer."

The UK is a corporatocracy.

They are getting people used to the idea that they are going to have to pay more for everything and to not expect pay rises.

This so the elites can make more profits to feed their bonuses.

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The UK is a corporatocracy.

They are getting people used to the idea that they are going to have to pay more for everything and to not expect pay rises.

This so the elites can make more profits to feed their bonuses.

You may have a point but the BBC budget was cut even though the license fee was frozen. So the BBC has no incentive for this line.

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Well even Merv stated that living standards had fallen 12% over the last 3 years , and that is based on the fake inflation figures so they have more likely fallen more than that.

You forgot train fares going up by more than inflation like they do every year.

Food edging up

Insurance up,

Energy bills up

Savings rates still low

Petrol has gone way up New years eve 2008 I paid 89.9 a litre New years eve 2010 I paid 126 a litre.

Yes as always most housholds will find a way to carry on and pay these increases . However for those that lose their jobs the whole thing becomes a completly different story and it will not just be public sector workers that are going to have the carpet ripped from under them . Plenty in the private sector are losing their jobs.

Then another factor that I have just started hearing more and more people talk about is NEVER EMPLOYED ADULT CHILDREN living at home. This is a new phenomenon that this down trun is causing . As people retire , die or leave their jobs they are not being replaced by the next generation and that is causing much pain.

It depends what peoples circumstances are but for many the pain of just not haveing a job or future is real very real.

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I am listening to R5L this evening and obviously they are talking of cuts and they constantly use "The pain we are all going to suffer."

As far as I can tell the schools will still be there, the bins collected (once a week as well), my GP will not suddenly be eaten up by the ground, because the Coalition have stopped the stupid Labour plan of replacing local hospitals with mega factory hospitals miles away so the closure of my local hospital has been cancelled, the police will hopefully become more visible on the street due to paperwork being scrapped.

What other public services do I need?

On the personal money front so vat goes up 2.5%, fuel may be the pain point here but I can just drive slower and walk to the supermarket, if I buy some electrical goods then for every hundred pounds I will pay 2.50 more, seeing as I bought my last TV in 2004, I do not think this is going to bankrupt me. My mobile phone monthly charge has gone up 43p and I am worried how I can pay that massive amount. Then there is 1% on NI so if someone is on 25K that will be 200 a year or 4 pounds a week, well one less pack of fags then.

My guess is that you are too young to remember the last recession.

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Here we go again.

I would like to see the tax income pie being divied up and put to a referendum so the electorate can decide how its spent. The condition would be we cannot spend more than we rake in. Then watch people going from being arm chair whiners are start eating each other alive. We just all need to forget the last 10yrs of magical boom, not just in house prices but in pompous standards of living and salaries none of which had and sound basis or were sustainable.

The cuts have HARDLY BEGUN YET! We are still spending MORE than when Labour were in power.

In 4 yrs time we will look back to 2011 as actually as being one of the better years in this country's history.

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My guess is that you are too young to remember the last recession.

Do you mean the 80's recession or the 90's recession.

No I am not, I was living in Liverpool at the time of the 80's recession this is why I wrote the post. People were just not poor then they were desperate.

This time round we have the state paying massive HB or mortgage payments and if these are paid then the dole can provide the food.

Edited by ralphmalph

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I am listening to R5L this evening and obviously they are talking of cuts and they constantly use "The pain we are all going to suffer."

As far as I can tell the schools will still be there, the bins collected (once a week as well), my GP will not suddenly be eaten up by the ground, because the Coalition have stopped the stupid Labour plan of replacing local hospitals with mega factory hospitals miles away so the closure of my local hospital has been cancelled, the police will hopefully become more visible on the street due to paperwork being scrapped.

What other public services do I need?

Your bins will be emptied, but you'll be sent a monthly bill based on a combination of rubbish weight and how well you sorted it.

Your Doctor will still be there. But as an employed person, if you want to see him, you'll need a debit card.

The hospital will also be open, run by BUPA, with payment details collected on admission.

The police will be perfectly visible, applying fines for minor offences, with fine targets to acheive in order to cover their wages.

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Do you mean the 80's recession or the 90's recession.

No I am not, I was living in Liverpool at the time of the 80's recession this is why I wrote the post. People were just not poor then they were desperate.

This time round we have the state paying massive HB or mortgage payments and if these are paid then the dole can provide the food.

What we have this time around that was not here in the 60's 70's 80's and 90's recession is the masses of people in high amounts of debt . In most of those recessions apart form the mortgage and maybe in the 90's a bit of credit that was all people had to worrie about . Today it is different the debts are massive. We also had high wage inflation in those recessions for those who held their jobs this time wages if anything are reversing for most .

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Your bins will be emptied, but you'll be sent a monthly bill based on a combination of rubbish weight and how well you sorted it.

Your Doctor will still be there. But as an employed person, if you want to see him, you'll need a debit card.

The hospital will also be open, run by BUPA, with payment details collected on admission.

The police will be perfectly visible, applying fines for minor offences, with fine targets to acheive in order to cover their wages.

You just described the shadow run universe, sorta, black clinics need payment for all treatment, police were replaced by the Lonestars the for profit police etc..

its a horrible distopian world too.

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What we have this time around that was not here in the 60's 70's 80's and 90's recession is the masses of people in high amounts of debt . In most of those recessions apart form the mortgage and maybe in the 90's a bit of credit that was all people had to worrie about . Today it is different the debts are massive. We also had high wage inflation in those recessions for those who held their jobs this time wages if anything are reversing for most .

In the 90;s recession they certainly had massive amounts of debt in relation to the amount of disposable income they had to pay the interest. There was a late 90's housing bubble of almost the same as now.

I have vivid memories of my boss at the time who had bought the most expensive house he could because house prices only ever go up and when mortgage rates hit 15% after he had paid the mortgage he had 20 quid left to feed and clothe his family.

This is my point the 80's and 90's recessions hit everybody this one will only hit the unemployed single man or woman with no children.

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You just described the shadow run universe, sorta, black clinics need payment for all treatment, police were replaced by the Lonestars the for profit police etc..

its a horrible distopian world too.

Exactly my first thought. I thought it was at least another 4 years before we return to that kind of liberal totalitarianism.

Edited by libspero

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In the 90;s recession they certainly had massive amounts of debt in relation to the amount of disposable income they had to pay the interest. There was a late 90's housing bubble of almost the same as now.

I have vivid memories of my boss at the time who had bought the most expensive house he could because house prices only ever go up and when mortgage rates hit 15% after he had paid the mortgage he had 20 quid left to feed and clothe his family.

This is my point the 80's and 90's recessions hit everybody this one will only hit the unemployed single man or woman with no children.

Nope

I bought my first home 1986 and the interest rate was 12% minus miras which took it down to 9%. In 1988 when interest rates hit 15% minus miras the real interest rate was 12% for the first 30k of mortgage or 60k if double miras.

Due to 3 payrises 86/87/88 my higher mortgage payments were still less of my take home pay than they had been at the start. This was the case for anyone who bought 1986 and prior . We had had enough wage inflation to stomack the higher interest rates .

The only people in NE back then were also those who bought in 1987 onwards so this did not hit everybody only those who bought at peak . The 15% interest rate only lasted for 13 months and then they fell very quickly to make the payments of those who bought at the peak less than they had been when they first took out the mortgage . Knew loads of people who were in NE due to my age then but within a few short years their payments were shrinking quickly giving them more money in their pockets their other costs rising were matched by rising wages . Yes their homes were worth less than they owed but they could well cope with the payments.

This is not the case this time around we have had years of low wage rises so large mortgages are not getting smaller and rising costs are not being met for most people .

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In the 90;s recession they certainly had massive amounts of debt in relation to the amount of disposable income they had to pay the interest. There was a late 90's housing bubble of almost the same as now.

I have vivid memories of my boss at the time who had bought the most expensive house he could because house prices only ever go up and when mortgage rates hit 15% after he had paid the mortgage he had 20 quid left to feed and clothe his family.

This is my point the 80's and 90's recessions hit everybody this one will only hit the unemployed single man or woman with no children.

You are making a fundamental error in believing that interest rates will not go up enough to recreate the situation that your boss was in.

Anybody with one eye on the news would realise that we are currently being prepared for the soon to come rises. Many credit supplying organisations have already increased rates in the last few months.

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In the 90;s recession they certainly had massive amounts of debt in relation to the amount of disposable income they had to pay the interest. There was a late 90's housing bubble of almost the same as now.

I have vivid memories of my boss at the time who had bought the most expensive house he could because house prices only ever go up and when mortgage rates hit 15% after he had paid the mortgage he had 20 quid left to feed and clothe his family.

This is my point the 80's and 90's recessions hit everybody this one will only hit the unemployed single man or woman with no children.

i think you are living in a dream world, the problems havent started being addressed yet, the 80s and 90s recessions were relatively short because the rebalancing and real pain started straight away, thats all still to come and its already been going for 3 years although mild so far, what you mean is it has only so far hit the unemployed singleton, so far being the operative words, try looking back on this economic period of rebalance after its happened to compare with the 90s and 80s, what you are doing at the moment is effectively saying 2 months into the 90s recession, well this isnt so bad

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Nope

I bought my first home 1986 and the interest rate was 12% minus miras which took it down to 9%. In 1988 when interest rates hit 15% minus miras the real interest rate was 12% for the first 30k of mortgage or 60k if double miras.

Due to 3 payrises 86/87/88 my higher mortgage payments were still less of my take home pay than they had been at the start. This was the case for anyone who bought 1986 and prior . We had had enough wage inflation to stomack the higher interest rates .

The only people in NE back then were also those who bought in 1987 onwards so this did not hit everybody only those who bought at peak . The 15% interest rate only lasted for 13 months and then they fell very quickly to make the payments of those who bought at the peak less than they had been when they first took out the mortgage . Knew loads of people who were in NE due to my age then but within a few short years their payments were shrinking quickly giving them more money in their pockets their other costs rising were matched by rising wages . Yes their homes were worth less than they owed but they could well cope with the payments.

This is not the case this time around we have had years of low wage rises so large mortgages are not getting smaller and rising costs are not being met for most people .

Well said.

Inflation may cause many problems but it did shrink the relative size of you debt payments over time.

Also, with the historically low mortgage rates currently being paid, any rise of even a couple of percent will spell financial disaster for many.

With unsecured debt on variable terms, such as credit cards, you have the double whammy of increased rates and increased minimum payment terms. I once had a card that only required me to pay 2% of the outstanding balance each month. On those terms £200 covered a £10k debt. If the terms were changed to a more traditional 5% the debtor would have another £300 per month to find.

I will say it again. If rates rise more than 1% on this government's watch they are doomed at the next election. Having said that, I reckon they're doomed anyway so they might as well go for it. <_<

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Nope

I bought my first home 1986 and the interest rate was 12% minus miras which took it down to 9%. In 1988 when interest rates hit 15% minus miras the real interest rate was 12% for the first 30k of mortgage or 60k if double miras.

Due to 3 payrises 86/87/88 my higher mortgage payments were still less of my take home pay than they had been at the start. This was the case for anyone who bought 1986 and prior . We had had enough wage inflation to stomack the higher interest rates .

The only people in NE back then were also those who bought in 1987 onwards so this did not hit everybody only those who bought at peak . The 15% interest rate only lasted for 13 months and then they fell very quickly to make the payments of those who bought at the peak less than they had been when they first took out the mortgage . Knew loads of people who were in NE due to my age then but within a few short years their payments were shrinking quickly giving them more money in their pockets their other costs rising were matched by rising wages . Yes their homes were worth less than they owed but they could well cope with the payments.

This is not the case this time around we have had years of low wage rises so large mortgages are not getting smaller and rising costs are not being met for most people .

I do not understand what point you are making.

If you have no or little savings how can you feed and clothe your family for "only 13 months" that interest rates were at 15% on 20 pounds disposble income a week?

You say you had and the mortgage holders had enough wage inflation to afford the mortgages. Then why were reposessions so high?

You can not, you get reposessed.

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You are making a fundamental error in believing that interest rates will not go up enough to recreate the situation that your boss was in.

Anybody with one eye on the news would realise that we are currently being prepared for the soon to come rises. Many credit supplying organisations have already increased rates in the last few months.

No I have made on prediction on interest rates at all.

I am talking about the present not the future. IR's may go up in the future but the radio programmes I was listening too and commenting on did not mention this. All they mentioned was cuts causing pain not IR's.

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i think you are living in a dream world, the problems havent started being addressed yet, the 80s and 90s recessions were relatively short because the rebalancing and real pain started straight away, thats all still to come and its already been going for 3 years although mild so far, what you mean is it has only so far hit the unemployed singleton, so far being the operative words, try looking back on this economic period of rebalance after its happened to compare with the 90s and 80s, what you are doing at the moment is effectively saying 2 months into the 90s recession, well this isnt so bad

First off I am not living in a dream world. I am hopefully posting a thought provoking thread with some logical arguments, that for sure can be debated.

You say the 80's and 90's recessions were short. If you check your history then the 80's recession had 5 years of rising unemployment! The truth is that the depth of fall of this recession maybe as severe as the 80's but unemployment fell fall less in absolute numbers and for half the time, 2 years.

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I do not understand what point you are making.

If you have no or little savings how can you feed and clothe your family for "only 13 months" that interest rates were at 15% on 20 pounds disposble income a week?

You say you had and the mortgage holders had enough wage inflation to afford the mortgages. Then why were reposessions so high?

You can not, you get reposessed.

The point im making is this

You said EVERYONE was hit in the 90's recession due to their debt .

I said no only THOSE who bought at the top of the last boom . The people who bought prior to 1987 had had wage rises so they did not end up in the situation like your old boss .

The repossesions last time came mainly form people like your old boss this time people who have been home owners for years could find themselves in his position due to 3 reasons.

1. Low wage increases not reducing mortgage debt quickly.

2. Low wage increases not keeping up with other essential expenses.

3. People have taken heaps of other debt like Loans, CC and HP , these other debts were not as common as they are now in the 90's ,oh and MEWING was almost non existant back then.

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Inflation may cause many problems but it did shrink the relative size of you debt payments over time.

Just to be clear, are we talking about a wage-price spiral of inflation caused by increasing money supply / velocity, or are we talking about price inflation because of a 30% devalued currency and a hot-money flow into commodities?

If it is the first then I expect you are right. If it's the second I'm not so sure.

Bear in mind the first derivative of M4 is now reported to be decreasing Linky.

Just something to consider..

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The bribes paid to the have nots so they are less inclined to stick a screw driver into your skull?

It would have to be a very sizeable award indeed if I were a public sector worker receiving my P45, pal, I can tell you!

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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